Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 8:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2013
Invest 98L has continued to organize since yesterday and now has a well-defined circulation, isn't far at all from reaching TD status and in fact any slight organization from here will warrant an upgrade. With a bag of moisture around it preventing dry air from interfering, it is becoming increasingly likely that we could see something spin up at any time. Much cooler SSTs and dry air will start to interfere regardless by Thursday so seeing an 'Ana (2009)' type scenario unfold is a possibility--Ana briefly became a tropical depression on its first round near the Cape Verde Island then 3 days later re-strengthened into a mid range tropical storm before being torn apart for good while near Puerto Rico. A lot remains to be seen but the models are now coming into consensus that it will give a lot of heavy rain and some gusty winds to the Northern Lesser Antilles by around the weekend/early next week. As far as any eventual impacts to the Lower 48 go, it's far too early to tell. Dry air will definitely prevent anything strong from spinning up in the next several days but beyond then, conditions may improve in favor for regeneration. Again a lot of time to monitor the progress of 98L (or soon-to-be TD4/TS Dorian), if we do get an upgrade, I'll update with a new blog post.
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