Tropical Update 2013: Tracking Invest 97E, Hurricane Dalila & A Possible SW Gulf AOI

By: hurricaneben , 12:34 AM GMT on July 03, 2013

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The tropics are starting to pick up somewhat with a developing Invest 97E off the Pacific Coast of Mexico and yet another area of interest worth monitoring over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico right now.

Hurricane Dalila
Dalila has strengthened to a hurricane much earlier today and has maintained its strength since then as it continues to push its way away from the Pacific Coast of Mexico and out to sea. Winds are around 75 MPH with milibars down to around 987--and some additional strengthening may occur in the next 12 hours before it runs into cooler waters which would make way for a more swift weakening phase from there. No land masses appear to be threatened by Dalila from this point on, there has been no reports of damage associated with Dalila from Mexico or any land masses for that matter but high surf will remain a concern in the next couple of days even as Dalila keeps pulling farther and farther away from land. So for those tourists and residents alike along the NW Pacific Coast of Mexico and possibly southern Baja California, don't venture far into the ocean or at all if you're a weak swimmer and there won't be any danger. By the end of this holiday weekend, Dalila is likely to have dissipated.

Invest 97E
A tropical disturbance which started to develop off the Pacific Coast of Mexico last night is continuing to show signs of organization and the chances of potential TD/TS formation are steadily rising its way up the ladder. While any development is currently slow, an imminent increase in conductivity for environmental conditions may boost the chances of development even further and there is a strong possibility of us seeing TD-5E or TS Eric form in the next couple of days. Models are fairly spread out so there is the decent chance of a direct risk of landfall or close brush to the Pacific Coast of Mexico but on the flip side, a relative 'fish spinner' is another valid possibility so it's something to watch--if it does make landfall, odds are strongly against a major hurricane threat but a tropical storm or even a weak hurricane making a direct hit are plausible scenarios so something to watch but nothing to get too fussed up over. The NHC gives it a formidable 50% chance of TC formation by Thursday evening. A more direct threat to Baja California than the other cyclones this year cannot be ruled out either. We will watch 97E closely.

Yucatan AOI
A surface trough is producing an area of thunderstorms over much of the Yucatan and some of the eastern Bay Of Campeche. Environmental conditions are currently not very favorable for development but is projected to increase in favorability over the next few days as the activity makes its way toward the Bay Of Campeche at around 10 MPH. If it stays as its pace or slows down, there is a very decent chance out there of us seeing something try to spin up as it follows a path that should take it most likely into NE Mexico towards the weekend/early next week. There is the possibility it may affect Texas's weather (especially the southeast portions) during that time frame but that all depends on how organized or intense and how far north as it ends up. Low chance of TC formation in the short term but we'll watch it anyway for more likely development later in the week. NHC gives it a rather low 10% chance of TC formation by Thursday evening--I'd give it a 30-40% chance of becoming one in its lifetime.

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7:14 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
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About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.