Tropical Update 2013: TS Andrea Forms In E GOM, N FL In Path

By: hurricaneben , 10:47 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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The Invest that has been spinning up much discussion in the hurricane tracking world and among the residents of much of Florida has finally been declared Tropical Storm Andrea. A RECON flight flew into the system this afternoon and found a well-defined circulation mixed in with TS force winds so we officially have our first named storm of the hurricane season. Northern Florida Peninsula seems to be at the most direct risk but the impacts aren't confined to there only as very heavy rainfall will be seen well away from the center, poetntially across the vast majority of the Florida Peninsula and some of the Panhandle. Landfall should be sometime later tomorrow in the Big Bend area. I'll break down the impacts in this post, so keep on reading.

Let's begin with what will likely wind up the most formidable threat: the very heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts will generally range between 3 and 6 inches in the areas most affected which include much of the Florida Peninsula, Southeastern Georgia and eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle. Now isolated maximum amounts are being forecast to possibly reach 8 inches and I'm not surprised if we see a couple of very isolated areas which would see amounts as high as one foot. The area I forecast may get the worst of the rainfall would stretch from around Vero Beach FL well into North Carolina which may see a landfall around Friday.

Being that it doesn't have much time before making landfall tomorrow and the dry air is preventing much significant intensification from this point on, a landfall with 45-50 MPH winds is most likely (NHC goes with 45 MPH) so the overall threat from the winds aren't quite as high as the rainfall but some downed tree limbs and wind related isolated to scattered power outages are possible examples of very minor damage we might see--mostly in the northern third of the Florida Peninsula, Georgia and eastern SC/NC.

Isolated tornadoes are another hazard, mainly for much of the Florida Peninsula and Southern Georgia. Most of them should be very weak (EF-0/low end EF-1 but a couple of them reaching high end EF-1/EF-2 status just cannot be completely ruled out.

Storm Surge
A lesser threat than the inland flooding but storm surges capable of minor coastal flooding should be eyed on by coastal residents close to the landfall center. This threat range is mostly confined to areas north of Tampa Bay and south of Appalachicola along the West Coast where peak surges can reach 2 to 4 feet above ground levels.

I'll have another update tomorrow morning, if possible.

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10:55 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
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About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.