Tropical Update 2012: Finally...TS Ernesto! Caribbean Threat Increasing

By: hurricaneben , 10:31 PM GMT on August 02, 2012

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After a major struggle in organization for about 12-24 hours after its formation, Tropical Depression Five finally got its act together and strengthened into Tropical Storm Ernesto. It's still not looking all that great, but it's getting there and the RECON found tropical storm force winds with it. It is packing winds of 50 MPH but due to dry air and shear near it, it is not expected to additionally strengthen all that much in the next day or two as it strikes some of the Lesser Antilles as a mid range tropical storm. Residents there are under TS Warnings, so you should already be prepared for tropical storm conditions. But the real concern comes after it enters the Caribbean Sea on Saturday where there is an area of much higher SST's. There it should start to strengthen more steadily and could be a hurricane south of Jamaica by Saturday so that's where we should really be watching Ernesto very closely. There is no immediate threat to the Lower 48, but conditions favor that it will eventually turn into the Gulf Of Mexico by next week and that's when residents along the Gulf Coast should be paying more attention...of course, where in the Gulf Of Mexico is not very clear at this time. I'll have an update tomorrow on Tropical Storm Ernesto.

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About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.