Tracking TS Aletta & Invest 92E

By: hurricaneben , 8:56 PM GMT on May 16, 2012

As Tropical Storm Aletta starts to show signs of weakening, Invest 92E has popped up and could develop potentially into a tropical cyclone and (perhaps?) even something more over the next few days--but neither pose an immediate threat to land, 92E would be a bit of a bigger concern overall.

Tropical Storm Aletta
At 500 PM EDT...Tropical Storm Aletta had winds around 40 MPH--so it's down just a notch from its peak this morning of 45 MPH, but that's not much. Further weakening is expected and this will likely not be around by the time the weekend rolls in through. It poses no threat to land, so there's not much to talk about.

Invest 92E
This one's closer to land, so it's a slightly bigger threat overall, but not by a whole lot. It's only a tropical disturbance now so nobody should be worried about any major impacts. Gradual to steady development is anticipated and there is a very firm chance that we will see this form into a tropical cyclone by the weekend, if not sooner. The NHC gives it a 30% chance of TC formation by Friday, I'd put it at 40-50% for that time frame given its organization rate. Still, this should not do much to the Pacific Coast of Mexico depending on how strong it gets--it is still forecast to generally remain offshore by models and I doubt it'll do much to anyone expect for deliver rain and increased surf to Mexico in the short term, I wouldn't be very concerned about a system so weak and offshore, but I'll keep an eye for any changes in impacts and intensity.

Elsewhere
There's not much to talk about, although models still hint at something developing in the Caribbean about 4-6 days out, it's only models so we'll just have to wait and see. A weak low pressure system could bring rounds of wet weather to the Florida Peninsula in the next day or two...so more rain is on the way, and that's mostly good thing, but don't expect tropical development in this area in the immediate future.

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About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.