Tropical Update 2011: Invest 96L Might Be A Threat To Cuba, Florida;97L To Be Watched

By: hurricaneben , 12:05 AM GMT on October 22, 2011

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Well the tropics are starting to kick back into action as we have 96L which is rather close to TD status and might pose a potential threat to Cuba, Florida and/or The Bahamas this upcoming week possibly as a hurricane. We are also tracking Invest 97L in the Central Atlantic which could threaten parts of the Caribbean and The Bahamas as well if it does develop enough but is much less of a short term threat.

Invest 96L
Let's start with Invest 96L, the biggest threat at this time by far. The system is steadily showing signs of organization as it scrambles near Central America and some slight organization could result in the formation of a TD if not TS sometime tomorrow perhaps. Models generally take it into the Yucatan Straits in a couple of days then either take it on a hook towards Cuba, Florida and The Bahamas or straight pole ward towards the Northern Gulf Coast, as anything from a mere tropical storm to a powerful major hurricane (a CAT I/II is my thought at this time). Odds are we will see TD#18/TS Rina by dusk tomorrow in the W Caribbean and Hurricane Rina by early to mid this upcoming week. This could end up one of them "late season surprises" like we've seen with Kate (1985), Mitch (1998), Wilma (2005), Noel (2007) and more recently Tomas (2010/Last Year). If something like this occurs, then this potentially dangerous storm should be closely watched by everyone in the Yucatan...Cuba...Florida...The Bahamas and US Gulf Coast, more locations may step in depending on the general outcome. The NHC gives this a pretty strong 70% chance of TC formation by Sunday evening.

Invest 97L
Invest 97L in the Central Atlantic is very slowly organizing as it moves generally in the direction of the Northern Lesser Antilles. Models are equal between this going through/near the Northern Lesser Antilles, south of these islands or north of these islands. In any outcome, odds favor this eventually affecting land if this hangs around long enough. The NHC gives this a 20% chance of TC formation by Sunday evening.

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1. Thrawst
1:21 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Nice update!
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1915

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About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.