Tropical Update 2011: Tracking TS Ophelia, TS Philippe, Hurricane Hilary & Invest 91L

By: hurricaneben , 9:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

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The tropics continue to spurt out multiple but generally harmless systems as we march toward the end of September.

TS Ophelia
Tropical Storm Ophelia is flunctuating in intensity as it moves off to the WNW at 12 MPH, packing winds of 45 MPH. Basically this system should generally maintain its intensity for the next few days as it curves more NW likely away from the Caribbean Islands but it might come close to Bermuda later this upcoming week as a mid range tropical storm and residents in the island should keep an eye on this although it's not a huge threat at this time. Currently we don't think the Lower 48 is likely to see any decent threat from this one although some increased swells still might impact the Northeast US Coast if current trends hold.

TS Philippe
Tropical Storm Philippe has formed and gradual strengthening is likely over the next day or two and we might see this become a hurricane by tomorrow night or Monday. Thankfully this should remain well out to sea and is not a threat to land at this time. Still we should watch it in case trends shift further west which should increase the threat to Bermuda and so on. I highly doubt this will ever directly impact land.

Hurricane Hilary
Hurricane Hilary was a powerful 145 MPH hurricane at this time yesterday and has slightly weakened since, now a 135 MPH hurricane as it moves away from land. This passed uncomfortably close to the Mexican Coastline yesterday but the hurricane is so tiny that impacts were greatly reduced to occosionally gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. Tropical storm force winds hardly even reached the coast.

Invest 91L
Invest 91L bringing showers and thunderstorms to The Bahamas is gradually organizing and some further development is likely as it moves off to the north. Models generally take this into/near North Carolina in a couple of days possibly as a tropical storm. I think this has some decent potential of becoming Tropical Storm Rina/TD#18 in the next day or two with the NHC giving this a 30% chance of TC formation by Monday afternoon.

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About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.