The tropics are getting very busy lately. We have Tropical Storm Bret which is holding on to its intensity but may begin a weakening phase soon, Hurricane Dora which is almost a CAT II and still strengthening, Invest 99L which could become a TD/TS later today and a Central Atlantic tropical wave which may be a long-term threat to develop.
Let's start with Tropical Storm Bret which is still maintaining its 50-MPH intensity but should begin to weaken shortly. The projected path keeps it well clear of any land masses as it passes between the US East Coast and Bermuda today. Cooler SSTs should help weaken it in a matter of hours and it's not a threat to anyone at this time.
Hurricane Dora has underwent some decent intensification overnight and is now packing winds of 90 MPH as it barrels a couple of hundred miles offshore the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Further strengthening is anticipated and this might attain major hurricane status late tonight and possibly reach CAT IV intensity briefly tomorrow afternoon before hitting cooler SSTs. The good news is that this should stay well away from making a direct hit or landfall anywhere but still residents along the Pacific Coast of Mexico and the Southern tip of Baja California should anticipate some rough surf, gusty winds and increased heavy showers. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Northwestern Mexico Coast
Invest 99L has organized quite a bit overnight and there is a pretty high chance that it might become a TD or TS later today before hitting colder SSTs tomorrow. It is located well East of Bermuda and should not threaten any land masses, according to the models. The NHC gives this a 60% chance of TC formation.
This is one we should pay close attention to in the long-term. The UKMET, ECMWF and NOGAPS models all develop this one into a strong tropical disturbance or TD several days out over The Bahamas. This should overcome a small area of dry air and is actually getting its act together right now. Another scenario is it goes into the Caribbean where it might also develop. This could be tagged an Invest later today and the reason we're watching this so closely is because of its potential threat to the Caribbean Islands, The Bahamas and/or Florida. It is too unclear to say if it will end up quite an organized tropical cyclone or not, or if it will threaten the CONUS.