hurricaneben's WunderBlog: Covering Atlantic & EPAC Basins Since '09

Tropical Update 2014: SE US, Including Florida, On Heightened Alert For 91L;TS Elida

By: hurricaneben, 10:07 PM GMT on June 30, 2014

A washout could be in store for many states along the Eastern Seaboard, from Florida potentially into the Tri-State area, as a well-defined Invest 91L gathers organization and is on the verge of becoming a tropical cyclone. Also, portions of Mexico's Pacific coastline are in for a washout of potentially dangerous proportions as they brace for Tropical Storm Elida. First though, we want to jump to what might play out as a treacherous 4th Of July for portions of Southeast US, in the form of a developing tropical system (91L).

Invest 91L
Deal with this is that a RECON flight investigated 91L's circulation which they determined to be just shy of TD status, but not enough so that advisories would be initiated at 5 PM EDT (June 30, 2014). So while it merely straddles the line of tropical cyclone status, it's a potent rainmaker just the same. Any slight increase in organization will warrant the initiation of advisories, and therefore tropical storm watches/warnings will go up for portions of the Florida East Coast. Regardless of formation, according to the HPC, a swath of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall (at least) is forecast along the Florida East Coast from the Palm Beach region to around Cape Canaveral/Cocoa Beach in the next three days and with a high likelihood of TC formation, 2-5 inches sounds like a better bet. Expect similar amounts for easternmost counties of North Carolina from late Thursday through the weekend. Localized flash flooding is a concern for both mentioned areas but more than anything, quite a damper for much of the Eastern Seaboard this holiday weekend (South Carolina into the Tri State areas, where 1-3 inches are forecast for the weekend). Also for surfers willing to venture out in the rain, seas could be treacherous off the Outer Banks waters namely Friday when seas are to peak at well upwards of 12 feet off of Cape Hatteras. Intensification won't be much of a problem at all, especially offshore of NE Florida into North Carolina where pockets of 30-31C could yield for substantial intensification. I expect this to peak as a 50-60 MPH tropical storm just before brushing the NC Outer Banks, and anticipate TS force winds (mostly in gusts) for the Outer Banks, but uncertainty remains. As far as track goes, models are coming into a solid agreement on a track closely paralleling the Florida Eastern Seaboard about 50-100 miles offshore, turning NNE and making a sharp turn to the NE/ENE upon closest approach to North Carolina, sparing the Northeast US from its worst effects. Something to closely monitor throughout the course of the week, anticipate worst conditions along North Carolina's eastern shoreline toward the weekend.

TS Elida
This section will be relatively brief in comparison to 91L, but what is most important to note here is the solid agreement on forecast track. Not a lot of uncertainty in this case but the potential for dangerous flash flooding and mudslides exists with this one. A tropical storm warning is in effect from LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES, where the risk of rainfall-related flooding is the big story. Isolated amounts could near 10 inches in spots, not especially life-threatening but comparatively so for a system that is expected to remain at least 100 miles offshore. Interests in low-lying villages and towns, namely along the shoreline, be on high alert and heed all warnings.

Another game in town, Tropical Storm Douglas, which is expected to remain well out at sea and steer clear of any land masses. A quick update on what very well could be Tropical Storm Arthur by then, stay tuned for that tomorrow morning.

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Tropical Update 2014: Invest 90L Moves Inland Over Mexico, Flooding Threat Persists

By: hurricaneben, 10:09 PM GMT on June 06, 2014

Odds are now yet again stacked against the development of 90L into a tropical cyclone, after an impressive increase in convection overnight. The near-depression is currently moving ashore Veracruz, and with it, the threat for flash flooding and mudslides remain. So villages and cities in low-lying areas susceptible to flash flooding, mountainous terrain susceptible to mudslides, would be in the wrong to write any remaining danger off. It is still vital to be prepared for the possibility of flash flooding affecting your area.
Eyes shift to the NW Caribbean and Gulf Of Mexico where certain models have been hinting at cyclogenesis in the next week or so, give or take. The ECMWF wants to differ from the other models on the bandwagon (CMC, FIS and GFS) by taking the low northwest in the general direction of Mainland Mexico and Texas, while the other three bring it on a NE recurve towards the Florida Peninsula where a substantial amount of very heavy rainfall could contribute to some flooding problems down the road. Of course, this is a week out, great uncertainty exists and nothing appears to be set in stone. It may not even spin up, as significant wind shear may inhibit such development. Props go out to First Choice Weather for providing the convenient, effective graphic.

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Tropical Update 2014: Eyeing Invest 90L, Another Dangerous Flood Threat For Mexico

By: hurricaneben, 5:12 PM GMT on June 05, 2014

Portions of Oaxaca are struggling to heal from the flooding and mudslides left behind by Tropical Storm Boris on the Pacific side in which as much as 100,000 people were affected by weather that left five dead and many homes sustaining damage of an unknown extent. By the time all is said and done, maximum rainfall amounts could top 20 inches as the remnants still are pumping heavy convection and a large circulation. Whether or not these remnants fade out, the danger hasn't subsided. We are tracking a potent area of low pressure in the Bay Of Campeche (Invest 90L) that has the potential for gradual development if it manages to stay offshore Mexico for more than the next 24 hours. Needless to say, very heavy downpours are a legitimate hazard regardless of development and dangerous flash flooding can become a grim reality for those of you in, say, Veracruz and southeastern Mexico in general. It is the strong upper-level winds that are inhibiting substantial short-term development with this one, though a pocket of 29-30C waters (relatively conducive) just might prove as saving grace. We'll have to see if its circulation is not too large to take advantage of this small window of opportunity. Model consensus-wise, they are just not buying into the substantial development of 90L, odds are relatively stacked against it. Keep in mind, the flood threat is one not to take lightly regardless of whether this spins up into a tropical cyclone. Heed any orders given by authorities to ensure the safety of you and your loved ones, these are the elementary guidelines that should be followed in any such situation.

CITATIONS:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex .cf.gif
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tr opical-storm-boris-mexico-20140603
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.ticotimes.net/2014/06/04/tropical-stor m-boris-downgraded-after-affecting-close-to-100000 -in-guatemala

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Tropical Update 2014: Tracking TD-2E, A Substantial Flood Threat To Mexico

By: hurricaneben, 10:19 PM GMT on June 02, 2014

We are tracking our second tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, and yes, it is expected to cause serious problems for folks in NW Mexico through the weekend. All eyes are attentively tracking the Eastern Pacific for two reasons as we roll through the second day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season: (1) inconsistent, but legitimate, model guidance hinting at cyclogenesis from the remnants in the western Caribbean and/or Gulf Of Mexico towards the weekend and (2) the more obvious, short term threat of potentially destructive flooding along Mexico's Pacific Coast--particularly southern portions of state Oaxaca, where mountainous terrain can spell for a landslide concern too. This second reason is dreadfully concerning, its a large but not thoroughly organized area of heavy convection with a nearly stalled-out forward speed of only 3 MPH. SSTs in its path are around 30-31C, wholly conducive for some steady intensification and wind shear is relatively conducive too, hovering at around 10-20 knots. At this time, we expect any intensification to be a gradual process but likely steady at that. The NHC is calling for a 60-MPH tropical storm to approach the shoreline of southeastern Oaxaca by Friday, which just might be a conservative forecast. It should not be highly doubted that, with the impressive SST-wind shear ratio, more swift intensification could occur (as seen with Amanda, though likely not as rapid). Regardless, it's the whopping amount of heavy convection and nearly stationary movement that should pound affected areas with repeated torrential downpours and be of most concern. Isolated amounts can top a staggering 30 inches through Saturday, which clearly could spell disaster. Preparations should be done for perfection, especially for those in low-lying villages and cities within' a 50-mile radius of the forecast track, please consult local authorities for any evacuation orders in your area, or heed any advice for the safety of you and your family. Don't tempt fate in such a volatile situation, when an area that may be in the clear at one moment...could be in the path of destruction the very next.

GOM Development
It is the second day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season as of this writing, and there is valid reason to monitor the Gulf Of Mexico for development in the next week or so. Model consensus has inconsistently hinted at the development of a low pressure system in the NW Caribbean and/or western Gulf Of Mexico by late week into the weekend. Unlike the Pacific, conditions aren't exactly what we would call beneficial to any development that could occur. Shear should top 30 knots off the Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico, where cyclogenesis has been hinted at, which would be marginally to relatively unfavorable but not wholly so. Wind shear trends could somewhat decrease by that time frame, in which we'd closely watch for development. This could be pulled off in the direction of the Northern Gulf Coast and/or the West Coast Of Florida, enhanced moisture there is projected to enhance the risk for flooding regardless. At this point, no need for concern in the short term but we will monitor any model trends in the next couple of days.

Will be sure to update tomorrow or Wednesday.

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Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.