Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben, 2:58 PM GMT on May 24, 2014
We begin our Memorial Day Weekend with an interesting sight out of the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and a quick update on that. Hurricane Amanda is a category one with winds around 75 MPH, it is moving west-northwest at 5 MPH and models are now trending toward a potential threat to the Baja California and the Pacific Coast of Mexico, though likely as a much weaker system. As it stands, it is undergoing what one may call a phase of 'rapid intensification' and it should continue to do so in the next, say, 24 to 48 hours. In fact, the latest forecast track is predicting that it will attain CATIII status by late tomorrow before beginning a weakening trend. As far as the threat to Mexico goes, there is no need to rush to prepare as any effects should not occur 'til late next week, odds also suggest it might fall apart before then.
By this time next weekend, the Pacific may not be the only basin to watch for activity. Model consensus is hinting at enhanced moisture in the Caribbean and cyclogenesis is definitely not out of the question. We'll watch that for you, have a fantastic Memorial Day weekend...
By: hurricaneben, 10:26 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
With our first named storm of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season drifting about 630 miles SSW of the Pacific Coast Of Mexico, one would assume the tropics have officially kicked off. The truth is, conditions are very conducive for development throughout a lot of the EPAC but the opposite is true closer to home. We are currently tracking Tropical Storm Amanda, which has not strengthened significantly in the past 24 hours. As pointed out, SSTs are at around 30-31C, which supports sufficient intensification. After all, steady strengthening is forecast in the next 72 hours. What makes the general thinking different from this time last evening, models and forecast track are now calling for a northward turn. This does not mean there is actual reason for residents along the Pacific Coast of Mexico should rush to prepare, but it certainly is eye-catching. It is also expected to grow into a minimal hurricane for a brief period of time, not much is stopping it from doing so. Though the thinking is if it poses any threat to land (still unlikely), it will do so as a significantly weaker and less potent system. So I will watch it, and be sure to update this weekend. Have a fantastic Memorial Day weekend.
By: hurricaneben, 10:30 PM GMT on May 22, 2014
Officially, as of 2 PM PDT, the first tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. This is well away from the Pacific Coast of Mexico and is projected to follow a path that would steer it clear of any land masses. Strengthening should occur at a slow but steady rate, and I can see this attaining mid range to strong TS intensity by the weekend. SSTs in its immediate path: this is quite a mixed bag because it is currently over a substantially favorable 30-31C waters, this should persist without much fluctuations until around 120W, which the slow-moving system should not reach until' at least the middle of next week. I am keeping a close eye to the depression's progress but note that it is not expected to pose a threat to any land masses in the foreseeable future.
By: hurricaneben, 11:53 PM GMT on May 16, 2014
As we approach the start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season, we initially tend to look toward the Caribbean Sea for signs of significant development. In this case, the MJO is projected to be in its minimum phase at least through the middle of next month. Environmental conditions are comparatively conducive for development in the Eastern Pacific, as we are in our second day into the official Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season as of this writing and we are already monitoring the possibility of short term tropical cyclone formation.
An area of low pressure is slowly building in convection well to the southwest of Mexico's Pacific Coastline. Further development is expected, with supportive SSTs of 30-32C in its immediate path. Beyond the start to next week, the system could enter a considerably less conducive environment with a general cooling trend in SSTs and a spike in wind shear as it slowly tracks to the west/northwest and out to sea. As it stands, there is no threat to any land masses in the foreseeable future.
NHC: 30% chance of TC formation in the next 48 hours, 50% chance of TC formation in the next five days.