Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben, 10:37 PM GMT on June 30, 2013
A continuation of organization yesterday has resulted in 96E being upgraded to Tropical Depression Four-E and now Tropical Storm Dalila but it has not strengthened since overnight. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of the Pacific Coast of Mexico from Punta Sa Telmo to La Fortuna as Dalila is forecast to resume strengthening tonight and peaks on Tuesday as it makes its closest approach to Mexico--and it could make it to hurricane strength by that time but because it is not forecast to make a direct hit or very close brush, impacts should be lessened to increased winds (possibly of tropical storm force) and locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches--which wouldn't translate to a great deal of damage if at all, possibly some downed tree limbs and isolated street flooding at the most. After giving Mainland Mexico a close brush, a more westward turn should ensue and it does not appear that Baja California or any other land mass should see any significant impacts given the projected track, but it could always shift more to the north or south than expected, so we'll monitor the progress of Dalila. Bottom line: if you live between Punta Sa Telmo and La Fortuna in Mexico, you could be in the zone for tropical storm conditions however you may escape the worst of Dalila's impacts.
By: hurricaneben, 2:16 PM GMT on June 28, 2013
Invest 96L has increased in organization overnight and now, as per the NHC, has a 40% chance of becoming a TC by Sunday morning--a jump from the 20% given last night. This shows that increasingly favorable upper level winds and high SSTs in the disturbance's immediate path are making way for a steady shot at development and a TD/TS forming sometime this weekend is definitely becoming rather likely. I'd give it around a 60% chance of becoming a TD/TS sometime this weekend...now the question is: will it be a fish storm just like Cosme or will it be a more formidable threat to land? This is still far out but patterns point to a more northward direction for 96E unlike Cosme and, as indicated by a major agreement in models, would take it on a collision path with Baja California and potentially the NW Coast of Mainland Mexico. It's still not a tropical cyclone yet so folks there shouldn't rush to prepare quite yet and it's still 5-7 days out from impact but being that rougher weather is almost inevitable given the patterns, it's something anyone with interests in above mentioned areas should keep an eye on. Odds are it won't be very strong at all by the time it reaches land--likely no more than a borderline hurricane if that but we'll have to see. I'll update tomorrow.
By: hurricaneben, 9:17 PM GMT on June 26, 2013
The Eastern Pacific is not letting up quite yet--as Tropical Storm Cosme weakens, there may be another area of interest with some potential to develop off the Pacific Coast of Mexico. The latest on Cosme and a second Pacific area of interest--discussed below.
Tropical Storm Cosme is continuing to weaken, now with winds down to near 60 MPH. It peaked as a mid range category one overnight with winds up to 85 MPH but increasingly colder SSTs are helping make way for a rather swift phase of weakening for Cosme. High surf was always the biggest concern for land masses closest to Cosme including Baja California and the Pacific Coast of Mexico but even that should rapidly diminish as Cosme pulls on a path that would take it out to sea and quickly tear it apart before it even comes remotely close to any other land masses--not much in its path anyway for at least over a thousand miles. So no worries there regarding Cosme.
Eastern Pacific AOI
An area of interest in the Eastern Pacific has developed several hundred miles south of Acapulco Mexico. While it's not close to TD status or even an Invest yet, we may be looking out for the possibility of slow development in the next couple of days as it moves on a more westward voyage that should steer it clear of any land masses. So is 'Dalila' looming? Unlikely in the imminent forecast but an eventual cyclone forming out of this is definitely a valid possibility. NHC gives it a 10% chance of TC formation by Friday afternoon (I'd give it a 30-40% chance of it ever forming).
The Atlantic basin remains quiet and should be in the next several days but sometime next week into the following week, there remains indications that the MJO pulse will pull its way into Western Caribbean from the west, enhancing the potential for cyclogenesis in that time frame. Strong upper level winds is one valid reason for the struggles of any development to occur across the tropical Atlantic over the past 1-2 weeks. I'll have an update either tomorrow or Friday.
By: hurricaneben, 9:14 PM GMT on June 25, 2013
While the Atlantic remains quiet in the short term, we are still tracking an EPAC named system: Cosme. I'll give you all the details on the Atlantic/EPAC tropics here.
Cosme has continued to strengthen and is now a category one hurricane, with winds jumped to 80 MPH. Some additional strengthening may occur in the next 12 hours or so before it runs into much cooler SSTs tomorrow. Cosme is still expected to steer clear of any land masses and while fairly dangerous surf is still affecting the shores of parts of the Pacific Coast of Mexico as well as southern Baja California, there are no hazards to the actual population centers itself--just increased cloud coverage so stay out of the surf is the only warning regarding Cosme.
A very weak and disorganized tropical wave is continuing to march its way across Central America. If it manages to avoid South America and make it into the Caribbean within' the next 5 days, it may enter a more supportive area for development but at this time, strong upper level winds should make conditions very adverse where the wave is. An MJO pulse entering the Western Caribbean could warrant more favorable conditions in that area as early as next week, definitely in early July.
I'll have an update on Cosme tomorrow.
Updated: 9:15 PM GMT on June 25, 2013
By: hurricaneben, 9:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Tropical Storm Cosme is continuing to strengthen at a rather quick pace while the Atlantic remains quiet at the moment. We're going to start by discussing Cosme then bring up the potential for Atlantic development afterwards.
Tropical Storm Cosme is continuing to strengthen, now with winds up to 60 MPH. Additional strengthening is expected and Cosme could become a hurricane as early as tomorrow morning before hitting cooler SSTs on Wednesday. It is unlikely to develop into a stronger hurricane due to limited time frame but knowing how easy Pacific hurricanes flare up, a brief shot at CAT II status certainly is possible. Cosme should steer clear of any land masses but may bring some rather dangerous surf to the Pacific Coast of Mexico in the next 24-48 hours and potentially the Baja California southern tip in the next 36-72 hours. So no land masses should worry about any threatening impacts unless you're planning to swim offshore of areas mentioned, in that case, be very wary if you do decide to swim at all.
The tropics remain quiet on the Atlantic basin, that is for the short term. But models have been hinting at some Western Caribbean development potential next week which would be plausible because that's about when the MJO Pulse should cross Central America from the Pacific and approach the Caribbean in the early part of next month which basically translates to the next 1-2 weeks. A tropical wave near 24W, 8N is under a very hostile area of development but if it manages to make it into the Caribbean by that time frame, we may have this scenario potentially play out, we'll just have to wait and see.
Check back for updates on Cosme and possibly the Atlantic situation by tomorrow.
By: hurricaneben, 11:07 PM GMT on June 23, 2013
Tropical Depression Three-E has formed about 485 miles S of Manzanillo, Mexico and should gradually strengthen over the next few days but does not appear to be an immediate threat to land at this time. We are also monitoring 95E which is far less organized and less likely to develop into anything formidable.
Tropical Depression Three-E
Tropical Depression Three-E has formed about 485 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico with winds around 35 MPH. Gradual strengthening is expected over the next few days as it drifts stationary then makes a more NW to W turn generally out to sea. It could strengthen into a hurricane briefly by Tuesday before unfavorable conditions such as cooler SSTs begin to take its toll. High surf could affect the southern tip of Baja California over the next 1-3 day(s) but that's about the extent of the impacts, overall not really much of a threat to land at all.
Invest 95E is less organized, now with only a 20% chance of TC formation. There is no concern for any land masses regarding this Invest.
I'll have another update on TD-3E (Cosme) by tomorrow.
By: hurricaneben, 12:12 AM GMT on June 23, 2013
It seems to be a double trouble scenario in the tropics, at least in the Eastern Pacific where we are tracking 2 areas of interest with a shot at development: one more than the other (that is 94E).
94E appears to be very close to TD status and may become one at any time. There does not appear to be any direct threat to land but impacts on the southern tip of Baja California such as increased rainfall and winds are quite possible. Organization has occurred and should continue to occur as the disturbance takes a westward turn. Now this would take it out to sea but a ridge coming in play could push it off to the NNW in the next 24-48 hours and models are in agreement that it comes relatively close to the Baja California but stays far enough away that any impacts will be rather tame as compared to strength. For example if it makes closest approach as a tropical storm, we'll see occasional rainfall and breezy to windy conditions but if we see the closest approach of a stronger hurricane, TS force winds and flooding rainfall may drench the southernmost tip. NHC gives it a 80% chance of TC formation by Monday evening, something to watch for Baja Californian folks but not a major concern at all.
This one is less organized but the overall uncertainty should warrant some attention from those along the Pacific Coast of Mexico and Baja California as well. Development is possible before conditions become less favorable in 1-2 days, mostly in part due to the stronger 94E to the East. Odds are it stays relatively out at sea but the models aren't as much in agreement with the BAMM taking it within' 100-150 miles of a Baja California landfall and the HWRF taking it straight into Mainland Mexico. So whether it develops all that much or not, some sort of land impacts cannot be ruled out, not much of a concern at all at the moment. The NHC gives it a 30% chance of TC formation by Monday evening.
The Atlantic remains quiet with no areas of interest worth mentioning that pose a threat to develop in the short term but with the strong MJO pulse expected to make its way into the Caribbean by Early July, the next couple of weeks may churn out something worth watching.
By: hurricaneben, 3:43 PM GMT on June 20, 2013
Tropical Storm Barry has made landfall in Veracruz with winds around 45 MPH. The weakening phase has begun but the risk of flooding lingers into early tomorrow with mudslides a secondary concern. So far, only minor flooding and no heavy damage has been reported in Veracruz but with the rounds of very heavy rainfall still not over, we could see more reports of flash flooding in the state come in as Barry heads towards dissipation. Flooding resulted in at least one death in El Salvador but so far that's the only confirmed death attributed to Barry that's known at this time. I'll update on Barry's situation and potentially the tropical wave (or whatever else the tropics kick up) later today or tomorrow.
By: hurricaneben, 9:19 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
There are 2 areas of interest I am tracking in the tropics: TS Barry (which has just been upgraded from a tropical depression) and a weak tropical wave I will get to later in the blog.
The tropical depression (number 2) I've been tracking for the past 2 days has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry due to TS force sustained winds found by RECON. Tropical Storm Warnings are up from Punta El Lagardo MX to Barra De Nautla. Winds are up to 40 MPH. Barry has a tight and very small circulation so rapid strengthening or weakening for that matter is a lot easier plus the limited size means less land interaction which will favor strengthening in the next 12 to 18 hours before landfall tomorrow morning/early afternoon. NHC brings winds only up to 45 MPH before landfall at that time but that may be conservative and we may be looking at a 50-60 MPH wind frame at that. Shear is relatively low over the Bay Of Campeche but not entirely favorable of rapid intensification anyway. Either way, the main story will be the heavy rainfall with isolated amounts exceeding 10 inches possible. Flash flooding may be a concern and some river flooding has already sparked relocations to shelters in Belize.
A very weak tropical wave persists just north of Puerto Rico and is bringing some locally heavier rainfall amounts to the region. High shear should aid in limiting any notable development over the next several days but it may kick up rain chances over parts of the Florida Peninsula this weekend. If any energy remains once the wave reaches the Gulf Of Mexico (if it manages to make it there), much lower wind shear of 5-10 knots may aid in the chance of development.
I'll update tonight or early tomorrow if possible.
By: hurricaneben, 6:31 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
It's not over for portions of Central America such as Honduras and Belize that are being affected by Tropical Depression Two's heavy flooding rainfall. While the depression has weakened since landfall, its relatively slow movement is helping produce all these heavy rainfall over the same areas and total rainfall amounts may exceed 10 inches for Belize, Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala and Southern Mexico. With winds near 30 MPH, there is the potential for some re-intensification once it emerges into the southern Bay Of Campeche but with that said, it's only a 24-hour window of opportunity which is decent but with the terrain that may take its toll on the system, it's not likely that we will see 'Barry' before a final landfall in southern Mexico Thursday however there remains the potential. Otherwise the tropics remain fairly quiet and I'll have an update tomorrow.
By: hurricaneben, 6:17 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
The second tropical cyclone of the Atlantic hurricane season has formed right off of Belize and NW Honduras. Not much strengthening is forecast as it is just hours away from landfall in Belize. Rainfall of 2 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts near 5 inches, may lead to localized flash flooding but even the flooding concern isn't that substantial. It is just a depression with winds around 35 MPH but some strengthening may occur due to lower wind shear once it enters the Bay Of Campeche late Tuesday--odds are the depression will be significantly weakened by that time but re-strengthening into as much as a tropical storm is possible with at least 36 hours of development. So Belize and Northern Honduras may see some isolated risks of flash flooding but odds favor impacts being higher in Mainland Mexico...even so, that is at least 3 days away. I'll update tonight or tomorrow.
By: hurricaneben, 10:24 PM GMT on June 16, 2013
An area of disturbed weather identified as Invest 93L has shown signs of organization in the past 24 hours. It is not far off from TD status but because it is about to move into Central America in the next 12 hours, development into such is rather unlikely in the short term. However it is quite likely that by Tuesday or so, the system will re-emerge into the Southern Bay Of Campeche before a final impact in Mainland Mexico and there, there is the higher possibility of a TD/TS forming and could be quite likely at that. The NHC is going with a 30% chance of TC formation by Tuesday afternoon--which would be higher if a little further from land. Still flash flooding is a possibility regardless due to very heavy rainfall. There is no current threat to the Lower 48.
By: hurricaneben, 8:12 PM GMT on June 14, 2013
The tropics remain quiet across the Atlantic basin and Eastern Pacific without any considerable areas of interest to discuss. The models were previously calling for potential development towards the Bay Of Campeche sometime in the next week but has pretty much backed up since. A weak tropical wave may make its way towards the Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico towards the middle of next week anyway but isn't a valid candidate for short term development due to high wind shear ahead in the Caribbean. Shear is somewhat lesser in the Bay Of Campeche (20-30 knots) but still a bit high for development. I do expect the shear there to be on a decreasing trend before the wave makes it there anyway. So bottom line is no short term development candidates but maybe something to evolve down the road. Meanwhile, a record breaking wildfire continues to blaze its way through Central Colorado where numerous evacuations were ordered including parts of the city of Colorado Springs. With 379 homes destroyed and at least 2 confirmed deaths, this should go down as the most destructive wildfire in Colorado history at least in terms of property damage. It has been deemed the 'Black Forest Fire'. If you have family in the path of this massive wildfire, please contact them to assure they're aware of any evacuation orders and if you're in the path of the fire, please be alert for any possible evacuation orders your community may be under and heed all instructions.
By: hurricaneben, 10:15 PM GMT on June 12, 2013
A 'high' risk of severe weather has been declared by the SPC for Northern Indiana, Northern Illinois and western Ohio late this afternoon and tonight due to an imminent outbreak of severe weather. This is the first 'high' risk of severe weather in 2013--this should be looked at a serious threat as the area most affected by the severe weather outbreak is fairly densely populated and includes Chicago and its suburbs. A derecho type event with widespread damaging winds is the most likely outcome with very large hail and a few strong tornadoes cannot be ruled out either. Eastern Iowa, Southwest Michigan, Southern Wisconsin and most of the rest of Indiana and Illinois are under a 'moderate' risk with damaging winds and very large hail likely there also. As of 6 PM, there were 6 tornado reports--most of the damage has been very minor, some downed power line and a gas leak was associated with a tornado near Belmond, Iowa. No injuries or deaths have been reported as of yet but the real bulk of the severe weather is starting now and should increase into the early evening hours. Tomorrow, there's a moderate risk of severe weather for the highly populated Mid-Atlantic/Northeast including Philadelphia, DC and Baltimore with damaging to destructive winds possible so stay safe.
By: hurricaneben, 7:12 PM GMT on June 11, 2013
The Atlantic remains quiet since Andrea came through, the EPAC? A bit more busy but not by a whole lot. Will we see TC formation soon in the EPAC? That's a mixed bag but the Atlantic basin will definitely not remain as quiet for much longer.
Since Andrea brought considerable flooding and tornadoes to much of the US East Coast from Florida to New England as well as causing 3 indirect fatalities (all of which traffic accidents) late last week, the Atlantic has calmed down to almost a pure silence. Relatively unfavorable shear, including strong upper level winds, are playing a role in keeping the tropics quiet in the short term but as the SSTs slowly heat up in the coming days and weeks, this will definitely change and not much down the road either.
Eastern Pacific Basin
The Eastern Pacific, while also relatively quiet (it has been very quiet since Barbara in Late May), now is starting to show signs of picking up once again. Not by a whole lot though. A tropical disturbance has shown some signs of organization this morning and has been designated as Invest 93L. In the past few hours, it hasn't shown much more organization but additional development is possible over the next few days as it moves WNW at around 10 MPH, yeah at a rate that would not make it much of a concern for anyone beside shipping interests. A TD forming? Development will be slow and it's still not looking all that impressive so the chances are still there but not that high in the short term--long term, quite possible. NHC gives it a rather low 10% chance of TC formation by Thursday afternoon. I'd give it a moderate 30-50% chance of it ever forming.
I'll have an update tomorrow or Thursday.
By: hurricaneben, 12:39 PM GMT on June 07, 2013
After lashing Florida yesterday with at least 5 tornadoes (one of which injured a senior--worse in the Southern half of the state), minor coastal flooding, high winds and locally moderate inland flooding (worse in the North than South), Tropical Storm Andrea is bringing its wet fury to the East Coast states with South Carolina and North Carolina under numerous flood warnings. There were already reports of stranded motorists and isolated rainfall amounts may exceed 6 inches in these areas. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is possible along much of the Northeastern coastline (including the Tri State ares (NY/NJ/CT) which suffered great damage at the hands of Hurricane Sandy back in October. Now we will not see a repeat in Sandy in terms of damage or deaths but still a substantial flooding event for many from South Carolina up into Maine and potentially Atlantic Canada.
A fairly organized tropical disturbance, that at one time possessed certain qualities of a tropical cyclone, is running into a brick wall of strong upper level winds which has prevented rapid development and should prevent any additional organization--in fact should work against the disturbance and we will likely not see any sort of development in the short term. Now if there's any remote energy left from the disturbance by the time it reaches The Bahamas area 4-6 days out, lower shear may make development quite more favorable but at this time the odds strongly are against it.
By: hurricaneben, 10:55 AM GMT on June 06, 2013
Tropical Storm Andrea has strengthened some more overnight and has the chance of slight additional strengthening before coming ashore the Big Bend area of Florida later today. Tornadoes have already been reported across South and Central Florida with over a dozen Tornado Warnings having been issued. Towns/cities such as Sun City Center and Belle Glade have seen tornado damage including downed power lines from the overnight rainbands and more is to come as a heavy squall line approaches the Gulf Coast from Fort Myers to north of Tampa later this morning into the early afternoon hours before conditions finally improve in the southern half of the Peninsula.
By: hurricaneben, 10:47 PM GMT on June 05, 2013
The Invest that has been spinning up much discussion in the hurricane tracking world and among the residents of much of Florida has finally been declared Tropical Storm Andrea. A RECON flight flew into the system this afternoon and found a well-defined circulation mixed in with TS force winds so we officially have our first named storm of the hurricane season. Northern Florida Peninsula seems to be at the most direct risk but the impacts aren't confined to there only as very heavy rainfall will be seen well away from the center, poetntially across the vast majority of the Florida Peninsula and some of the Panhandle. Landfall should be sometime later tomorrow in the Big Bend area. I'll break down the impacts in this post, so keep on reading.
Let's begin with what will likely wind up the most formidable threat: the very heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts will generally range between 3 and 6 inches in the areas most affected which include much of the Florida Peninsula, Southeastern Georgia and eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle. Now isolated maximum amounts are being forecast to possibly reach 8 inches and I'm not surprised if we see a couple of very isolated areas which would see amounts as high as one foot. The area I forecast may get the worst of the rainfall would stretch from around Vero Beach FL well into North Carolina which may see a landfall around Friday.
Being that it doesn't have much time before making landfall tomorrow and the dry air is preventing much significant intensification from this point on, a landfall with 45-50 MPH winds is most likely (NHC goes with 45 MPH) so the overall threat from the winds aren't quite as high as the rainfall but some downed tree limbs and wind related isolated to scattered power outages are possible examples of very minor damage we might see--mostly in the northern third of the Florida Peninsula, Georgia and eastern SC/NC.
Isolated tornadoes are another hazard, mainly for much of the Florida Peninsula and Southern Georgia. Most of them should be very weak (EF-0/low end EF-1 but a couple of them reaching high end EF-1/EF-2 status just cannot be completely ruled out.
A lesser threat than the inland flooding but storm surges capable of minor coastal flooding should be eyed on by coastal residents close to the landfall center. This threat range is mostly confined to areas north of Tampa Bay and south of Appalachicola along the West Coast where peak surges can reach 2 to 4 feet above ground levels.
I'll have another update tomorrow morning, if possible.
By: hurricaneben, 8:37 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Invest 91L has somewhat organized since last post but not a whole lot. NHC now bumps it up to a 40% chance of TC formation by Thursday afternoon as environmental conditions may increase in favorability for development in the next day or two so it's then that a TD forming is actually very plausible but most likely more subtropical than fully tropical. Regardless, heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches may lead to an increased risk of flooding over much of the Florida Peninsula in the next 48 to 72 hours. For this reason, Flood Watches are up for a large portion of the western Florida Peninsula (including Tampa, Lakeland and Fort Myers). Isolated tornadoes are also possible on Thursday. Models favor a landfall somewhere between Panama City and Tampa but preferably the Big Bend region of Florida, regardless of development into a (sub)tropical cyclone or not.
By: hurricaneben, 8:43 PM GMT on June 03, 2013
Invest 91L remains disorganized without a significant increase in convection since yesterday. Unfavorable upper level winds should prevent much development anyways--or at least limit development to a slower pace. Models take it on a general NE hook in the next few days and generally favor a landfall in the Florida Gulf Coast/Panhandle towards the weekend, regardless of whether it develops into something formidable or not. So even if we don't see a tropical cyclone form out of this, widespread heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding throughout a large portion of Florida so motorists should stay alert for the latest driving conditions. NHC still gives it a 20% chance of TC formation by Wednesday afternoon. Heavy rains are affecting the Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico, Cuba and are nearing the Florida Keys.
By: hurricaneben, 11:53 PM GMT on June 02, 2013
The Atlantic hurricane season has officially started this weekend--June 1. It isn't off with a big bang like last year but it hasn't started crystal clear either. We are tracking an area of interest near the Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico which has a shot at slow development in the next few days and may have an impact on the Lower 48 (especially Florida Peninsula) to say the least.
An area of interest which is bringing disorganized thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall to the Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico should slowly get its act together as it drifts to the north at a very slow pace and may pick up in speed within' the next couple of days. Models have been debating on whether this heads toward a Florida Panhandle direct impact or bends toward the Florida Gulf Coast. SSTs are running slightly above normal in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico but shear is rather unimpressive at the moment so that may prevent any steady development. Still far out from TD status but it becoming one by towards late week is definitely a plausible thought. Either way, there is the possibility of some locally heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches capable of producing localized flash flooding over South Florida where excessive rainfall has already weakened the soil and drainage systems so most out there just don't want much more rainfall. The NHC gives it a reasonable 20% chance of TC formation by Tuesday evening. Got a link up for those to see the rainfall amounts predicted over South Florida.
LINK: 4-5 Day Precipitation
Tornado Chasing Tragedy
To the other side of the meteorological spectrum, an EF-3 tornado which caused extensive damage near the town of El Reno OK and killed 9 people has claimed the lives of 3 notable storm chasers: Tim Samaras (father), Paul Samaras (son) and Carl Young. Sad day for the weather chasing community and a terrible past couple of weeks for Oklahomans with rounds of destructive severe weather (the deadliest being the Moore tragedy).
I'll have an update on the AOI tomorrow afternoon.
Updated: 11:56 PM GMT on June 02, 2013
Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.