Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben, 11:18 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Never mind the last post about Barbara making landfall, its center was still offshore and hasn't reached its peak intensity yet. Now Barbara is making landfall as a category one as of 5 PM.
The wind threat is a bit greater than thought but still isn't likely to cause major damage. Downed trees have already been reported and some weak constructed homes may see significant roof damage by the time it's all said and done.
Isolated rainfall amounts over one foot may lead to locally significant flash flooding and the risk of landslides. Flooding of these proportions may cause considerable property damage though not to the extent of Agatha (2010).
3 to 5 foot above normal water levels may lead to localized minor to moderate flooding along the coastline but I don't anticipate significant impacts. Road closures and slight water intrusions cannot be ruled out.
By: hurricaneben, 3:49 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Tropical Storm Barbara is making landfall along the Pacific Coast of Mexico with winds now up to 65 MPH. Isolated rainfall amounts may exceed one foot and this could lead to significant flooding and landslides, although not to the extent of Alma (2008) and Agatha (2010). Steady weakening should occur as it moves inland. Regeneration in the Bay Of Campeche is not out of the question but unlikely.
By: hurricaneben, 11:36 PM GMT on May 28, 2013
It could be wet times ahead for the Pacific Coast of Mexico with the second tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific season having just formed offshore the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Low shear and higher SSTs should aid in some steady strengthening that could bring it to a mid range tropical storm by landfall late tomorrow in the Pacific Coast of Mexico but because of the limited amount of time before landfall, don't expect anything significant really. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts over 10 inches, are possible for western Guatemala and SW Mexico. This may lead to the increased risk of locally significant flash flooding but it probably won't reach the impacts Alma and Agatha brought to the region in 2008 and 2010 respectively. I'll have another update tomorrow morning and/or early evening when I have the most time on my hands to do so. Stay safe for those under TS Warnings.
By: hurricaneben, 9:38 PM GMT on May 27, 2013
Invest 92E is continuing to steadily organize as it slowly makes its way towards the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows it is very close to TD status and could become one as early as tonight or tomorrow with odds highly favoring one before landfall which should occur around mid week at this rate. With very low wind shear and a strong MJO influence, there is the remote possibility that this could become a hurricane before landfall if it stalls out and comes ashore late in the week but odds do not favor anything much more than a moderate TS at peak. Still very heavy rainfall over the next few days should amount to an increased risk of dangerous flooding so the risk is up there regardless. NHC gives it a very high 80% chance of TC formation by Wednesday afternoon. That'll be all and I'll update by this time tomorrow.
By: hurricaneben, 11:20 PM GMT on May 26, 2013
The Atlantic remains rather quiet as expected during late May although a change may come soon with the MJO expected to move into the Caribbean sea in the next week and models hinting at a potential TD/TS for the Caribbean and possibly South Florida in the next 1-2 weeks. This is still many days out but it is becoming rather persistent. Shear should be rather low for early June as the wind shear is already on a steady decreasing trend so development seems like it might not be all that much of a problem. But let's dedicate this blog post to a more short term and more certain threat to land--92E.
Invest 92E is showing signs of organization in the Eastern Pacific just offshore Guatemala--and further gradual organization is expected. A TD/TS forming out of this one by Monday or Tuesday is definitely not out of the question and actually starting to look rather probable. The NHC gives it a 30% chance of TC formation by Tuesday afternoon, I might go with 40-50% on this one however. A small but tight circulation is showing evidence of forming. It's still not a tropical cyclone yet but most models to take it into the Pacific coast of Mexico likely by mid week. So if it does develop into a tropical cyclone, it will likely be a rather weak one at that. Flooding, though, due to heavy rainfall may prove something to monitor closely.
This one is a little bit less organized and less of an immediate threat to land though a few models do hook it back NE in the direction of yet another Mexico landfall late in the week (others keep it well out at sea). NHC gives it a 20% chance of TC formation by Tuesday afternoon. I'm more concerned about 92E at the moment but I will monitor 91E as well and mention it in greater detail if the short term threat increases.
I'll have another blog post by either tomorrow afternoon or Tuesday. Happy Memorials day, everyone, and a safe one at that.
By: hurricaneben, 12:05 AM GMT on May 17, 2013
After a decent burst in intensification, higher shear is taking its toll on Alvin and TS Alvin has slightly weakened since this morning--now only hanging around with winds around 45 MPH (it reached a peak of 50 MPH overnight). There remains no threat to land as Alvin should soon make a straight westward track and should dissipate well before it reaches any land masses.
Severe Weather In TX;6 Killed
Severe weather in Texas spawned a destructive tornado in the town of Granbury TX killing 6, alongside at least 9 other tornadoes that caused lesser damage and 7 additional injuries. More is on the way and occurring right now as of Thursday evening in Louisiana--damaging winds and large hail are hazards though the severe weather risk shouldn't be as substantial as last night. The weekend and early next week may face more hail/wind hazards for the Midwest.
By: hurricaneben, 12:05 AM GMT on May 16, 2013
Tropical Storm Alvin has formed in the Eastern Pacific basin, with winds around 40 MPH. Due to relatively high SSTs and lower shear ahead of Alvin, rather swift intensification may bring it up to hurricane status as early as Friday AM and there is a decent chance of it nearing CAT II status towards the weekend. Fortunately there is no immediate direct threat to land--high surf and rip currents may be somewhat of a threat for swimmers along the Pacific Mexican coastline and potentially Baja California but at this time should be about the extent of any impacts felt outside of shipping interests.
There is also Tropical Cyclone Mahasen, with winds around 55 MPH, which may bring significant impacts such as flooding rainfall, high winds and a potentially damaging storm surge to Bangladesh and Myanmar as it makes landfall sometime tomorrow with 55-65 MPH winds. 15 of the 20 deadliest tropical cyclones have originated in the Indian Ocean so things look rather concerning considering the size and location of Mahasen--definitely something worth noting at the very least despite the fact that I rarely focus on such regions.
I will have an update tomorrow on Alvin and possibly Mahasen, thanks for reading.
By: hurricaneben, 11:17 PM GMT on May 13, 2013
The first Invest of the year in the Eastern Pacific is slowly increasing in convection (90E). Conditions are relatively favorable for development with wind shear a tad bit rough but a bit low for this time of the year (10-30 knots). Additional development could occur but should remain rather slow and it does seem rather possible that we could see a TD/TS out of this in the next few days. NHC hasn't tagged it yet because we're less than 2 days from the official start of the EPAC Season and it would make better sense to wait an additional 36 hours as additional development will likely be limited but considerable by that time. Whether or not it develops, it should remain well offshore and not pose a threat to land.
Updated: 11:17 PM GMT on May 13, 2013