hurricaneben's WunderBlog: Covering Atlantic & EPAC Basins Since '09

Model Activity Hints At Potential STS Near SE US Few Days Out

By: hurricaneben, 4:06 PM GMT on April 27, 2013

Certain models, such as the GFS and formerly the Euro, have on-and-off indicated the potential of a subtropical system to develop close to the SE US Coastline anytime from mid-week to next weekend and bring increased rainfall/winds from Florida to North Carolina. While the models haven't been entirely persistent, it is something worth keeping an eye on model trends in the future. Conditions are currently relatively adverse for development (in the 30-50 knot wind shear range, rather high) however more potent than most other regions of the Atlantic basin with the exception of the area around Bermuda.

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Retiring From Severe Weather: Will Return Hurricane Season

By: hurricaneben, 12:05 PM GMT on April 16, 2013

I'm just making this blog post to announce that I'm retiring from severe weather blog posts due to an extremely busy schedule with school and such--I'll return with a blog post during the first day of hurricane season when summer break is much closer. Thanks.

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Severe Weather Summary#9 - April 14, 2013 (SUN)

By: hurricaneben, 2:28 PM GMT on April 14, 2013

This severe weather update is for April 14, 2013. If you live in the areas mentioned for severe weather below, please stay tuned to local media outlets.

Impacted Areas/Scale
Southeast KS, Northeast OK, Southwest MO
SCALE: LOW, 1-3. MODERATE, 4-6. HIGH, >7.

WIND: 3/10 (Low to moderate)
HAIL: 3/10 (Low to moderate)
TORNADO: 2/10 (Low)

Wind
Damaging wind gusts of 60-70 MPH in any heavier cell that develops may down trees and power lines, causing scattered power outages.

Hail
Hail up to quarter size, and possibly higher in isolated areas, may fall during the strongest storms.

Tornado
The risk of tornadoes are fairly low today with this system but isolated tornadoes, mainly weak, are definitely something to look out for in the strongest storms.

I'll have another analysis by tomorrow morning, April 15.




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Severe Weather Summary#8 - April 11, 2013 (THU)

By: hurricaneben, 11:52 AM GMT on April 11, 2013

This severe weather update is for April 9, 2013. If you live in the areas mentioned for severe weather below, please stay tuned to local media outlets.

Impacted Areas/Scale
MS/AL/NW FL/TN/SC/MC/KY/WV/OH
SCALE: 1-3, Low. 4-6, Moderate. >7, High.

WIND: 3/10 (Low to moderate)
HAIL: 4/10 (Low to moderate)
TORNADO: 3/1O (Low to moderate)

Wind
Damaging wind gusts of 60-70 MPH are possible with the strongest storms.

Hail
Large to very large hail are hazards in the strongest storms.

Tornadoes
Isolated tornadoes are another primary hazard however the activity shouldn't be widespread.

I'll have another analysis early on April 12.

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Severe Weather Summary#7 - April 9, 2013 (TUE)

By: hurricaneben, 11:41 AM GMT on April 09, 2013

This severe weather update is for April 9, 2013. If you live in the areas mentioned for severe weather below, please stay tuned to local media outlets. This could be a particularly significant severe weather event today so be extra prepared.

Impacted Areas/Scale
Texas along a line NNE to Missouri
SCALE: 1-3, Low. 4-6, Moderate. >7, High.

WIND: 7/10 (Moderate To High)
TORNADO: 5/10 (Moderate)
HAIL: 6/10 (Moderate To High)

Wind
Particularly damaging to destructive wind gusts as high as 80 MPH may be in any of the supercells that develop. This powerful winds are capable of heavily damaging mobile homes (potentially destroying unanchored ones), widespread downed trees and numerous power outages. Power lines and downed trees may block roadways, making it impossible to get by. Driving is very hazardous with such winds, especially if on a bridge.

Hail
Large destructive hail up to tennis ball size may result in serious injury.

Tornadoes
Scattered tornadoes are possible hazards with the strongest cells--there is the possibility that one or two may be strong (>EF-2).

I'll have another analysis early on April 10, and possibly a brief update in this afternoon. Remember to stay very safe and listen for any sirens, tornado warnings or other severe weather notices.

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Severe Weather Summary#6 - April 8, 2013 (MON)

By: hurricaneben, 11:53 AM GMT on April 08, 2013

This severe weather update is for April 8, 2013. If you live in the areas mentioned for severe weather below, please stay tuned to local media outlets and i hope you have a great start to the week.


Impacted Areas/Scale
Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Eastern Colorado
SCALE: 1-3, Low. 4-6, Moderate. >7, High.

WIND: 4/10 (Low To Moderate)
HAIL: 5/10 (Moderate)
TORNADO: 3/10 (Low To Moderate)

Wind
Wind gusts of 60 to 70 MPH are likely impacts in any heavier cells/supercells that develop. These winds are capable of downing trees, power lines and causing minor damage to poorly constructed homes. Driving is also hazardous--even more so along bridges.

Hail
Very large hail is supposed to be the biggest concern with these lines of storms--with hail up to golfball size possible.

Tornadoes
A few tornadoes may form with the squall line but the activity shouldn't be widespread.

I'll have another analysis late today or early on April 9. Stay safe!

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Severe Weather Summary#5 - April 7, 2013 (SUN)

By: hurricaneben, 1:04 PM GMT on April 07, 2013

This severe weather update is for April 7, 2013. If you live in the areas mentioned for severe weather below, please stay tuned to local media outlets and i hope you have a great weekend.

Impacted Areas/Scale
Kansas, Western Missouri, Northern Oklahoma
SCALE: 1-3, Low. 4-6, Moderate. >7, High.

WIND: 4/10 (Low To Moderate)
HAIL: 4/10 (Low To Moderate)
TORNADO: 3/10 (Low To Moderate)

Wind
Damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH is likely in any heavier cell. These winds can down trees and power lines, triggering power outages.

Hail
Large hail up to quarter size (and potentially higher in isolated areas) could occur with the heavier cells.

Tornadoes
Any of the heavier cells or supercells are capable of producing isolated tornadoes however the threat is not widespread and odds aren't in favor for violent twisters.

I'll have another analysis late today or early on April 8. Stay safe!

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Severe Weather Summary#4 - April 6, 2013 (SAT)

By: hurricaneben, 3:18 AM GMT on April 06, 2013

This severe weather update is for April 6, 2013.

Impacted Areas/Scale
NONE
SCALE: 1-3, Low. 4-6, Moderate. >7, High.

WIND: 1/10 (Very Low)
HAIL: 1/10 (Very Low)
TORNADOES: 0/10 (NO THREAT)

No severe weather is forecast for this Saturday so it's a beautiful day for pretty much most of the nation. Isolated strong storms may produce brief gusty winds and small hail over portions of the Central Plains and Midwest but no widespread activity should occur so no scale or rundown is required in this blog post. I'll have another analysis late April 6 or early April 7.

Long-Term Notice
This is a long-term notice regarding Monday and Tuesday's severe weather potential. Rich Gulf moisture combined with a strongly unstable air mass may accumulate into the possibility of a severe weather outbreak both Monday and Tuesday with damaging winds and multiple tornadoes hazards to look out for over states such as Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas and Missouri. This is only a long-term notice, details will be more specific as the event draws closer.

Updated: 3:20 AM GMT on April 06, 2013

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Severe Weather Summary#3 - April 5, 2013 (FRI)

By: hurricaneben, 1:20 AM GMT on April 05, 2013

This severe weather update is for April 5, 2013. If you live in the areas mentioned for severe weather below, please stay tuned to local media outlets and i hope you have a great last day of the workweek.

Impacted Areas/Scale
South Florida
SCALE: 1-3, Low. 4-6, Moderate. >7, High.

WIND: 5/10 (Moderate)
HAIL: 3/10 (Low To Moderate)
TORNADO: 3/10 (Low To Moderate)

Summary
A cold front will move eastward, bringing with it the potential for a squall line to develop and move ashore the Florida Gulf Coast during the very early morning hours of Friday.

Winds
Damaging winds with gusts of 60-70 MPH are expected during the peak of the severe weather, which will likely occur entirely prior to noon. These winds are capable of downing trees, power lines and triggering minor structural damage to poorly constructed houses. Driving is hazardous with winds this high.

Flooding
2 to 4 inches of rainfall have already fallen in the past 24 hours over the areas in prime risk for this episode of severe weather so additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches in the next 24 hours may lead to minor urbanized flooding with the existent chance of isolated areas seeing more substantial flooding.

Hail
Hail up to quarter size may occur with the strongest storms--particularly the squall line that should develop ahead of the front.

Tornadoes
Isolated tornadoes are possible as the squall line develops. Any tornadoes are most likely to remain weak but if the squall line intensifies more than forecast or if conditions favor so, the tornado risk will be subject to increase.

I'll have another analysis late April 5 or early April 6. Stay safe! Because, for once, I am in the crosshairs of the severe weather.

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Severe Weather Summary#2 - April 4, 2013 (THU)

By: hurricaneben, 12:47 AM GMT on April 04, 2013

This severe weather update is for April 4, 2013. If you live in the areas mentioned for severe weather below, please stay tuned to local media outlets and i hope you have a decent second-to-last day of the workweek.

Impacted Areas/Scale
North Florida, Central Florida
SCALE: 1-3, Low. 4-6, Moderate. >7, High.

WIND: 5/10 (Moderate)
HAIL: 4/10 (Low To Moderate)
TORNADO: 2/10 (Low)

Summary
As a weak SFC low trails eastward towards the Florida Peninsula along a front, convection should develop ahead of the front and substantial instability may lead to a risk of severe weather along the front's path.

Winds
Damaging winds are, at this time, deemed the only significant threat with wind gusts as high as 60 to 70 MPH. This is enough to down trees and power lines, triggering scattered power outages and minor structural damage to poorly constructed houses.

Hail
While the winds are more of a threat at this time, isolated pockets of large hail up to quarter size are likely.

Tornadoes
Historically speaking, violent tornadoes are generally a lesser threat for the Florida Peninsula but they have happened before. Violent tornadoes aren't expected to happen in this case, the factors just aren't as cumulative to produce such hazards but isolated weak tornadoes still are something to watch out with the conditions to ensue for tomorrow.

I'll have another analysis late April 4 or early April 5. Stay safe! I know I will.

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Severe Weather Summary#1 - April 3, 2013 (WED)

By: hurricaneben, 12:08 AM GMT on April 03, 2013

Most know me for my tropical weather blog but this time I will add another feature to my blog: severe weather summary from now 'til the first day of hurricane season unless there is severe weather activity afterwards that is of note and not related to a tropical cyclone. My first blog will be for April 3, 2013 (Wednesday).

Impacted Areas/Scale
South Texas, Coastal Louisiana.
SCALE: 1-3, Low. 4-6, Moderate. <7, High.

WIND: 3/10 (Low To Moderate).
HAIL: 4/10 (Low To Moderate).
TORNADO: 1/10 (Low To None).


Summary
A relatively quiet day in terms of severe weather is in store for the Lower 48, but not entirely so. A cutoff upper low expected to move eastward may reach the Gulf region by late tomorrow. An E-W front may still near the Louisiana coastline and this may give way for isolated strong to severe storms, but not widespread, over Southern Texas and Coastal Louisiana.

Winds
Isolated areas of marginally damaging wind gusts, in the 50-60 MPH range, are likely to occur over portions of South Texas. These wind gusts may down tree limbs but that's about the extent of the damage capable of occurring with such winds.

Hail
Again isolated areas of large hail, mostly up to quarter size, may occur in the stronger storms over South Texas and possibly Louisiana but this activity is not a widespread concern.

Tornado
The tornado threat should remain very low through this period.

I'll have another analysis either the night of April 3 or the morning of April 4.

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