Tropical Update 2012: Hurricane Nadine Just Below CAT II Intensity
Hurricane Nadine has reached its peak: now a high end category one hurricane with winds around 90 MPH. Slow weakening is forecast to begin by tonight and continue for the next couple of days as it aims generally towards the Azores Islands. Azores may get brushed by Nadine by around Wednesday when it's supposed to be a strong tropical storm so they must prepare for possible tropical storm conditions...especially western parts of the island chain. Besides for the Azores Islands, there is no concern for any land masses in the foreseeable future with long-lived Nadine.
There is an area of interest being monitored in the Atlantic basin. It is not expected to develop all that much in the immediate time frame but could gradually develop over time as it tracks into an area more favorable for development. It will be watched for further signs of development in the future. NHC gives this one only around a 10% chance of TC formation by Tuesday afternoon.
To answer one's question: heavy rainfall is forecast to potentially cause localized flooding over South Florida tomorrow and on Tuesday. That's because of moisture and an area of low pressure mixed with the presence of a massive ridge setup over western US.
Updated: 9:57 PM GMT on September 30, 2012
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Tropical Update 2012: Hurricane Nadine Slightly Strengthens Some More;Norman A Goner
Hurricane Nadine has slightly strengthened some more after becoming a hurricane again yesterday, now winds have increased a notch to 80 MPH. It could peak as a high end CAT I tonight/tomorrow before hitting cooler waters and thus weakening. There is no immediate threat to land, though Azores Islands may get affected by some increased rain and wind late into next week by the time Nadine is forecast to be weak and extra-tropical. Still it's a very long lived, likely record-breaking hurricane, as it is has been active for 18 full days (take away one day in which it briefly was extra-tropical).
Tropical Storm Norman weakened into a depression late yesterday and dissipated just as it started to make landfall along the Pacific Coast of Mexico earlier today. Still flooding from repeated heavy rainfall already caused some significant issues across areas such as Colima, Jalisco and more. 5 fishermen remain missing but have not been confirmed dead or alive as of yet.
Gulf Coast Rainfall/Flooding Event
A non-tropical low, mixed in with moisture from former Hurricane Miriam & TS Norman, has helped spark majorly heavy rainfall across Texas in the past couple of days which in turn triggered locally major flash flooding with countless water rescues and a few evacuations. This threat is shifting more to the east and should effect Louisiana & Mississippi (it's starting to do so already). Even Southern Florida Peninsula may see a period of heavy rainfall/localized flooding on Monday and Tuesday.
TS Norman Forms, On Track To Mexico;Hurricane Nadine Will Likely Break Records
Tropical Storm Norman has formed and does pose a threat to make landfall along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by tonight--it could be starting to do so already as of 6 PM. While it's forecast to remain very weak, winds only around 40 MPH, rainfall amounts over one foot in isolated areas may lead to rather significant and potentially deadly flash flooding/mudslides.
Nadine is a hurricane...again--with winds around 75 MPH, and is breaking records...now at 7th place for longest-living storm since 1950. It will likely meander around for the next several days, potentially brush by the Azores Islands as a weaker tropical storm by next week, and we could see this become the longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone since naming began in 1950. So may not be a major threat to land but certainly a record-breaker if anything.
Miriam At TD Status;TS Nadine Re-Strengthens, 94E A Greater Concern
Miriam has weakened into a tropical depression and is no longer expected to threaten any land masses.
Tropical Storm Nadine is continuing to slowly restrengthen, now with winds up to 65 MPH, and this could reach its peak potentially as a minimal hurricane by tonight or tomorrow. Fortunately it is very unlikely that any land masses will have to worry about a direct hit anymore from this long-lived entity 'Nadine'. Geez, it looks like Nadine loves its Atlantic waters (joke intended there).
Invest 94E is not a harmless joke as it is close to TD status and does pose some sort of direct threat to land...though not likely in the form of a major hurricane or something as serious as that. It has a very good chance of becoming a TD/TS in the short term and most models take it into either southern tip of Baja California AND/OR Pacific Coast Of Mexico a few days out but if that occurs, I expect a fairly weak system. And there is SOME chance of whatever's left of it making it into the Gulf Of Mexico, we'll just have to see. Either way some moisture making it into the SW/S US is very possible--even likely.
I'll make a post tomorrow afternoon/evening if possible.
TS Miriam Weakening In EPAC;TS Nadine Still Out There;More AOIs
Tropical Storm Miriam is weakening, now with winds down to 60 MPH, and no longer is threatening to make a direct hit on Baja California at any strength. Further weakening is forecast and in the next few days, we should see a goner for Miriam as it races out to sea with no land masses currently in sight.
Tropical Storm Nadine is hovering around the same strength for the past couple of days. It has slightly strengthened, now with winds only up to 50 MPH, and we could see this peak as a stronger tropical storm by tomorrow into Saturday before starting to weaken. Good thing is that this one does not pose a threat to land either.
Invest 94E has a chance of becoming a TD/TS in the next couple of days and should follow a path relatively alike Miriam's--if not a bit closer to Baja California that Miriam is forecast to be. A lot of time to watch this one and development into a TD seems rather possible with a forecast 30% chance of TC formation by Friday evening.
An area of interest is struggling against upper level winds in the short term--now located NE of the Northernmost Lesser Antilles. A TD/TS is unlikely in the short term but things may change down the road. A westward motion is forecast to continue but we have a lot of time to figure out the land masses threatened, if any and if it even develops. For now just a weak area of interest that may become one to watch eventually but not much of a threat in the short term. NHC gives this one a 10% chance of TC formation by Friday afternoon. By Sunday, I'd give it a 40% chance depending on where it goes and the conditions there.
Tropical Update 2012: Hurricane Miriam Gradually Weakens;Nadine Moves Slowly
Hurricane Miriam is gradually weakening--winds now down to 85 MPH, a category 1 hurricane, and further gradual weakening is expected as it stays mainly at sea for the next couple of days. By the weekend, Miriam may near Baja California but it should be very weak by that time and likely not even tropical. land impacts in Baja California, if any, should be minimal (limited to increased rainfall activity). So overall not really much of a threat to anyone--at least as a formidable system, but whatever's left of it could put a damper on Baja California for the first part of next week/weekend if it manages to survive by then.
Tropical Storm Nadine is meandering around in the central Atlantic open waters. Nadine should remain a tropical storm over the next several days and, the way forecasts are looking, no land masses seem to be in harm's way with Nadine.
An Eastern Pacific area of interest may slowly develop but major development in the short term is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds. NHC gives this a 20% chance of TC formation by Thursday evening. It should follow in the general footsteps of Miriam, if it becomes anything which is possible.
TS Nadine No Threat To Land;Major Hurricane Miriam May Impact Baja California
Tropical Storm Nadine has weakened and now packs winds of only 50 MPH. It should hang around for the next several days as it moves at a very slow pace but poses no threat to land in the foreseeable future...if it lingers around longer than expected, anyways we will eventually determine what land masses will be threatened if any.
Hurricane Miriam has rapidly strengthened into a major category three with winds up to 120 MPH. Gradual weakening is forecast by early tomorrow--the question is...will any land masses stand the chance of being directly affected? Right now it looks as though Baja California may eventually see a direct hit towards the weekend but fortunately not as the major hurricane it's currently at now--more like a weak tropical storm or even depression. So not enough to do any serious damage but still something worth preparing for in case it's a bit stronger at direct landfall.
Super Typhoon Jelawat
Jelawat is now a massive super typhoon with winds up to 160 MPH--an extremely powerful category five. Fortunately it is not expected to directly affect land with such strong power but may brush Taiwan as a weaker, but still intense, CAT II hurricane by Thursday/Friday...strong enough to possibly do some fairly significant damage but likely not the catastrophe that would have been at a CAT V intensity. Still a concern for land.
A wave in the eastern Caribbean is very disorganized as it tracks through the Caribbean. Conditions are currently fairly hostile where it is now but it may hit a more favorable environment later on.
Tropical Update 2012: Miriam Near Hurricane Strength;Nadine Back In Action
Tropical Storm Miriam is continuing to strengthen, now with winds up to 70 MPH--just a notch below hurricane strength. Further strengthening may bring Miriam up to a CAT II hurricane by tomorrow with fairly rapid intensification a strong possibility. By Tuesday into Wednesday, it should start to weaken though as it hits cooler waters. There is no immediate threat to land though we can't rule out the possibility of Baja California being eventually directly affected by a much weaker (likely extratropical) system.
Tropical Storm Nadine has reformed, with winds of 60 MPH, and by mid-week it could start to hit warmer waters which would enable it to strengthen back into a hurricane. There is no immediate threat to land.
Tropical Update 2012: TS Miriam Strengthens In EPAC, Atlantic Relatively Quiet
As the Atlantic Basin calms down with Nadine no longer having advisories issues on (though regeneration is a decent possibility in the next couple of days), the EPAC does have action going on and that's in the form of Tropical Storm Miriam. Also--the Western Pacific has a potentially dangerous typhoon in the works. I'll update you with all of the situations here.
Tropical Storm Miriam is gradually strengthening, with winds now up to 45 MPH. There is no immediate threat to land though the Baja California may want to keep a casual eye JUST in case the track shifts more to the east. More strengthening is expected and Miriam could become a hurricane as soon as early Monday then possibly near CAT II intensity on Tuesday before hitting cooler waters. So no immediate direct threat but maybe Baja California has the chance of feeling the outermost rain bands so Baja California may want to keep an eye out but not get anxious to prepare quite yet since the threat is very low at this time.
Just less than a week after Sanba leaves severe damage behind in Okinawa and the Koreas, Jelawat is a new major threat for many in the Western Pacific. Normally I don't write about the WPAC, but when there is a serious typhoon threatening land, I must provide some discussion. Jelawat is only a CAT I now but could become a highly powerful CAT IV by Tuesday and could be a CAT III by the time it potentially heads for a direct hit on Taiwan still as a very dangerous typhoon and then head on a course that would take it into China likely also as a typhoon. So it's something that China and Taiwan should be eyeing and preparing for as there exists the potential of major damage in Typhoon Jelawat's path.
Nadine Becomes Subtropical;94L Less Likely To Develop;93E Very Close To TD Status
As Nadine becomes subtropical and is starting to fade out of the picture with no land masses in sight other than Africa, I would like to keep this blog post about the 2 Invests (93E & 94L).
Invest 94L has struggled in organization and now chances of it becoming a TS is much less likely--it only has the next 12 hours or so to develop into anything before hitting cooler waters. Still, Atlantic Canada may feel some weather affects if it can hold itself together at all without fizzling out into completely nothing for the next few days. NHC now only gives it a 20% chance of TC formation by Sunday PM.
Invest 93E is extremely close to TD status and is very likely to become one as early as tonight. Models take this relatively out to sea but it may pass close enough to Baja California by next week to increase rain and wind up there. So residents along the western coasts of Baja California should casually monitor the progress of this near-depression although major affects is unlikely at this time. NHC gives this an extremely high 90% chance of TC formation by Sunday PM (in this case, more like by Saturday PM).
TS Nadine Slowly Moves Away From Azores;94L Close To TD Status
Tropical Storm Nadine is slowly moving away from the Azores Islands, with winds at around 50 MPH. No other land masses are in the way besides for Africa but Nadine should be extratropical, weak and possibly not even existent by the time it gets to the nation where it formed off. So it's not a major threat to any land masses (including Africa).
Invest 94L has organized quite a bit since yesterday but briefly stopped doing so this evening. Conditions are generally favorable until' around early Saturday (24-36 hours out) when conditions should decrease in favorability for development. So a TD/TS is still rather likely to form by then but because conditions will soon become a bit less favorable for major development, I don't expect 94L to get too strong if it even forms. NHC gives this a 60% chance of TC formation by Saturday evening. Interests in the Atlantic Canada may want to keep an eye out as most models do generally take it into either Nova Scotia or Newfoundland--but it's nothing to get anxious over yet, as it hasn't even truly formed into anything. The threat to the Lower 48 is low to none at this time.
An area of interest (93L) is gradually developing and has a very good chance of becoming a TD/TS in the next couple of days as it continues to track through an environment favorable for development. Models generally keep this out relatively away from any land masses (in fact it's probably making its closest approach to land right now) and out to sea.
Tropical Update 2012: TS Nadine Brushes Azores;Another AOI Pops Up
Tropical Storm Nadine is brushing Azores Islands, bringing gusty winds and increased rainfall activity with it--but likely not causing any significant damage. Winds gusted to near 50 MPH, which is enough to down some tree limbs and trigger isolated power outages at the very most but not cause any major damage at all. After departing Azores Islands, Nadine should become extratropical as early as tomorrow then drift SE/E back towards Africa (whatever's left of it by then).
There is a new area of interest that is being monitored for potential development--this is well east of Bermuda. It is tagged as Invest 94L but the models haven't been officially put on the Wunderground site yet. Its westward motion (soon to turn northward) likely makes it no immediate threat to land but if the decent possibility of development pans out, Bermuda & Atlantic Canada may want to keep an eye. Just an area of interest to monitor, not a significant threat yet and TD/TS formation seems relatively unlikely in the short term. It has a 20% chance of TC formation by Friday afternoon according to the NHC. I expect the chances of formation to gradually increase some more as it hits an environment fairly favorable for development.
Tropical Update 2012: TS Nadine Nears Azores, Warnings Now Up
TS Warnings are now up as Tropical Storm Nadine, the biggest (and currently only) feature of interest in the Atlantic Basin, continues to head on a path that could take it very close to the Azores Islands by tomorrow as a tropical storm then hook back SE but on a path that would only bring any other weather impacts back to Africa and likely as a very weak extratropical storm. High surf, strong winds and increased rainfall is the main hazards with damage expected to be very minor, mostly limited to downed tree limbs and isolated to scattered power outages, but still not that big a deal. Tropical Storm Lane is close to degeneration in the EPAC and not a threat to any land masses.
Tropical Update 2012: TS Nadine The Main Atlantic Feature At The Moment
Tropical Storm Nadine remains the biggest feature in the Atlantic Basin as there are no other tropical waves the NHC are monitoring: both 92L & 93L have been dropped from the NHC tropical-tracking page. Even so, Nadine is not a major concern for anyone though the Azores Islands may feel some minor effects--such as gusty winds and increased rainfall activity--likely by the time that Nadine is extratropical. But the effects shouldn't be that major really. There is one other tropical cyclone in the EPAC and that's Lane but fortunately Lane does not pose a threat to any land masses--at least not in the foreseeable future. We'll be watching in case the tropical wave in the Caribbean makes a comeback or any other AOIs develop in the Atlantic/EPAC Basin.
92L & 93L Struggling;Hurricane Nadine A Potential Threat To Azores Later On
Invest 92L, 93L & Hurricane Nadine dominate the tropical talk as Category 2 Typhoon Sanba marches for the South Korea coastline after pounding the Okinawa islands as a category 3 with powerfully destructive winds and dangerous flooding.
Hurricane Nadine has weakened slightly since last night as it races on a path that could make it impact the Azores Islands as a tropical storm well into the upcoming week as it meanders around a little by that time. It has winds of 75 MPH, weakening is expected before impact in the Azores Islands though the Azores still should prepare for some squally, windy weather for a few days (Tuesday through Thursday) though nothing major is expected in the terms of impacts or damage--just not a good day to enjoy the beach.
The next system to monitor is Invest 92L but it has struggled due to unfavorable conditions since last night. It now has just a 10% chance of TC formation by Tuesday evening. Once it gets into the Central/Western Caribbean, if it manages to keep itself somewhat together, we may be talking about something to watch for significant development but for now just a disorganized and very weak area of disturbed weather that should bring no more than a wet start to the week for the Windward Islands/Lesser Antilles.
This one is of greater concern to the US: but not really much concern at that. It is disorganized as it meanders in the NW Gulf Of Mexico and models take it into the Northern Gulf Coast by Tuesday. It has some shot at development into a TD/TS but not a very big one--regardless of development, it is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and possibly breezy to windy conditions to southern parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and possibly east/north of that. Not exactly beach weather for the Gulf Coast either, but nothing major in the terms of damage and impacts should occur. The NHC gives this a 20% chance of TC formation before it finally moves ashore the US Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
Hurricane Nadine Out Over Atlantic Waters, Azores Should Watch;92L Nears Caribbean
The Atlantic basin is still relatively busy with Hurricane Nadine a potential threat to the Azores Islands and a weak tropical disturbance (92L) capable of developing down the road. What, where and who should take action from these 2 systems will be covered this blog post.
Nadine has strengthened into a category one hurricane overnight and now has winds at around 80 MPH. Movement is to the east at 17 MPH and a northeastern turn should occur by Monday as Nadine heads for cooler waters but still remains on a path that could bring some impacts to the Azores Islands. Fortunately, it's not a major threat to anyone at this time but the Azores Islands could be affected by some increased rain and wind as the latest forecast tracks makes Nadine brush by the Azores Islands as a tropical storm by mid-next week. Of course there's a lot of time to determine exactly what impacts the Azores may see but it's wise to keep an eye on Nadine for all interests in the Azores Islands. No other land masses seem to be threatened by Nadine in the foreseeable future.
This disturbance's rather weak, disorganized and not a major immediate threat to land right now--it is getting close to the Windward Islands and folks there may see some increased locally heavy rainfall as early as tomorrow but not a huge deal, really, maybe some minor flooding in low-lying areas...it should remain weak as it enters the Caribbean but later down the road--perhaps into this upcoming week--conditions could become very favorable for development and that's when more of a population should be paying attention to this area of potential development. TD/TS formation in the short-term doesn't seem likely, but I do think we might see one form beyond the 2-day time frame and possibly something stronger. All Caribbean islands have a chance to be affected--where exactly it goes and how strong it gets, does it affect the Lower 48, we should get a better picture of the outcomes later on--for now, just a weak area of potential to casually monitor for any major development. The NHC gives this a 20% chance of TC formation by Monday evening.
Updated: 12:05 AM GMT on September 16, 2012
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TS Nadine Still Struggling, Azores May Want To Casually Watch Though
Tropical Storm Nadine is still struggling in a slightly more unfavorable environment. It is still packing winds at around 70 MPH and should stay that way 'til around Sunday when conditions will start to get a bit more favorable for some slight strengthening into a hurricane. Beyond that, favorable conditions should decrease once again and Nadine should maintain strength for the next 24 to 48 hours beyond that before slowly weakening. There is no immediate threat, though the Azores Islands may wanna pay attention in the long run as there is the possibility for some impacts but that should be at least several days out.
Nadine is now a CAT1 hurricane.
There is a tropical wave also being monitored by the NHC in the Central Atlantic--but it has a very small chance of major development in the next couple of days as it continues to move westward. Once this gets into the western half of the Caribbean late next week, if it does at all, then it might enter environment much more favorable for real development.
Updated: 4:07 AM GMT on September 15, 2012
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Tropical Update 2012: Nadine Still Below Hurricane Strength
TS Nadine has temporarily ceased intensification-wise. However it is likely to resume strengthening in the next 24 to 36 hours and peak as a minimal CAT1 hurricane before slightly weakening on Sunday. The US is pretty much out of the question as far as any impacts go, and Bermuda also seems to be in the clear, but later down the road--Azores Islands may want to follow along as direct impacts is starting to look like a decent possibility. But that's over a week out and we will have a lot of time to know for sure if Nadine will completely recurve out to sea or will it pose a formidable threat to the Azores. I'll have another blog post tomorrow afternoon.
TS Nadine Strengthens Steadily, No Immediate Threat To Land
Tropical Storm Nadine has been strengthening at a steady rate in the past 24 hours or so and is now close to hurricane strength, with winds around 65 MPH. Further strengthening is expected and Nadine could become a hurricane as early as tonight then strengthen some more and possibly peak close to CAT II strength by Friday. Good news is that it is not a threat to land, at least in the foreseeable future. I am not ruling out the possibility that the Azores Islands and ultimately western Europe may feel some impacts from Nadine's extratropical remnants past the 5-day time frame, but it is not a threat to land whatsoever in the short-term.
Tropical Update 2012: TD-14 Forms, No Threat To Land;Leslie & Michael Fade Away
As Leslie and Michael lose tropical characteristics and move out of our view, a new depression has formed.
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed as of 1100 AM EDT. Gradual strengthening is forecast and it could attain hurricane strength by Friday (or possibly a bit sooner, depending on the conditions). Fortunately, it does not appear to pose a threat to land.
It has been 11 years today since the 9/11 Attacks. I just want to briefly send some sympathy to those who lost loved ones in the WTC Attacks--as a sign of respect.
I'll make another blog post tomorrow on TD-14 (or likely TS Nadine by then).
Newfoundland Prepares For TS Leslie;Michael Weakens;91L Nearly A Depression
Tropical Storm Leslie is taking aim at Newfoundland with winds close to hurricane-force, of 70 MPH. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch have been posted for Newfoundland and folks there need to be preparing now for the possibility of hurricane conditions especially should Isaac strengthen any further. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts near 6 inches, may also lead to some flooding though likely not severe.
Hurricane Michael is weakening, with winds down to 75 MPH, and it is not expected to threaten any land masses.
Invest 91L has been organizing and is now just half a notch away from TD status--a TD forming from this one seems imminent and is very likely to occur possibly in a matter of hours. Models have come into a consensus that the system will not cause any harm to land fortunately--just like Michael. The NHC gives this likely fish spinner a very high 90% chance of TC formation by Wednesday evening.
Updated: 10:28 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
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TS Leslie Heads Away From Bermuda, Newfoundland On Alert;Hurricane Michael & 91L
Tropical Storm Leslie is headed away from Bermuda after bringing squalls and tropical-storm force winds to the small island in the past 24 hours. Now Newfoundland should prepare as Leslie might make a landfall as a minimal hurricane so keep a close eye and make your preparations now.
Hurricane Michael is moving westward as a category one hurricane but fear not as forecast tracks recurve this well out to sea without even brushing by any land masses so we're in the clear with Michael.
This is a system we are watching: Invest 91L. Conditions are generally favorable for development but dry air is playing a role to prevent rapid development in the short-term. After 2-3 days out, the dry air should calm down and a more steady pace of development is expected. But the way things are looking right now, fortunately, odds favor a safe recurve out to sea just like Michael. Still things may change later on but for now, it's not on our top watch list. The NHC gives this a 50% chance of TC formation in the next 48 hours.
TS Leslie Starts To Impact Bermuda;Hurricane Michael Still Out There;91L Thrives
Tropical Storm Leslie's outer rain bands is already starting to impact the island of Bermuda with the worst impacts to come tomorrow (Sunday). Winds are now likely gusting to near tropical-storm force or close and sustained winds should reach TS force winds in the next 12 hours or so. The concerns aren't as big as once feared--Leslie should remain far enough to the east of Bermuda as a borderline hurricane that any damage should be very minor. Still some impacts so Bermuda is not completely missing Leslie, just dodged a major bullet.
Hurricane Michael is not much of a concern for land. It is a category two and weakening is expected in the next couple of days before it loses its tropical characteristics into this upcoming week.
Invest 91L, the wave off Africa, has organized somewhat today and now has a 40% chance of TC formation in the next 48 hours according to the NHC. A TD/TS forming is certainly a good possibility by the time the week starts however the good news about this developing system is that odds favor a recurve out to sea. Most models keep it away from any land masses, with one or two exceptions--with the weakness Michael & Leslie left behind, as a fellow hurricane expert pointed out to me, a safe recurve out to sea is a very plausible scenario. Still it would be wise to keep an eye out for any changes--especially if you live in Bermuda or the Azores Islands.
TS Leslie Heads For Bermuda;Hurricane Michael No Threat;90L Struggles;African Action
Bermuda is awaiting the impacts of Tropical Storm Leslie which should re-strengthen and bypass Bermuda to the east as a category one hurricane. The impacts aren't looking as severe for the island as thought a few days ago but still tropical storm force winds and locally heavy rainfall is a possibility and Bermuda is preparing in case tracks shift back to the west.
Hurricane Michael is a category two, with winds at around 105 MPH, but there is no threat to any land masses and weakening is forecast.
Invest 90L is fighting dry air and a TD/TS forming out of this one is not so likely anymore before it is absorbed by a cold front in the next day or two. It still may increase overall rainfall activity over the Northern and Central Florida Peninsula but no major impacts are currently anticipated. The NHC gives this just a 20% chance of TC formation by Sunday evening.
There is one more tropical wave off the African coast which may slowly develop in the next few days. The NHC gives this only a 10% chance of TC formation by Sunday evening however beyond that time frame, the odds of development are much higher. No current grasp on which land masses is threatened, if any at all. Only Cape Verde Islands should get any impacts in the short term.
Tropical Update 2012: Threat To Bermuda Slightly Decreases;Michael Peaks As CAT III
The threat has decreased a bit since this time yesterday with Hurricane Leslie as the tracks have shifted well to the east of the island--and the impacts are greater when hurricanes pass to the west than east due to the right front quadrant. Leslie has held on to CAT I status--no strengthening or weakening in the past 24 hours--but it may start to strengthen and peak as a category two as it passes to the east of Bermuda on Saturday/Sunday. Other than dangerous rip currents and surf, the impacts on the US should remain minimal to none though Atlantic Canada (particularly Newfoundland) may wanna monitor the latest on Leslie for a potential impact/brush as a weak hurricane sometime next week. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda, so there will still be quite some significant impacts on Bermuda just not as severe as once thought--probably.
Hurricane Michael has reached its peak earlier today--a category three with winds of 115 MPH. It is now starting to weaken and does not pose a threat to land so there should be no worries about Michael.
Invest 90L has a 30% chance of TC formation by Saturday evening, slightly lower than earlier yesterday. Development into a TD/TS is still possible just a bit less likely. Regardless much of North (and possibly Central) Florida may be looking at a stormy weekend/start to next week with occasionally heavier rainfall mixed in with potentially increased winds but nothing major. It could always become a named system later down the road once in the Atlantic Ocean.
Bermuda Must Closely Watch Hurricane Leslie;TS Michael Strengthening Some More
The island of Bermuda is on high alert right now as Leslie has been upgraded to a hurricane and further strengthening is expected before a likely brush by the small island. Leslie has winds of 75 MPH, a category one. More strengthening is expected and Leslie should become a category two hurricane by Friday then potentially reach major hurricane status by the weekend as it is currently forecast to pass dangerously close to Bermuda. Hurricane force winds is a strong possibility in Bermuda along with a potentially dangerous storm surge--in other words, preparations should be made soon because impact could be as early as Saturday.
Tropical Storm Michael now has winds at 70 MPH and it could become a hurricane by tonight however it is not a threat to land.
A tropical disturbance partially associated with the remnants of Isaac has emerged southward into the Gulf Of Mexico and is decently organizing. A TD/TS is possible from this one before most models loop it around across the Florida Peninsula by late weekend. It has a 40% chance of TC formation by Friday afternoon, according to the NHC. Florida Peninsula should watch it regardless for a soaking that may impact the weekend.
Tropical Update 2012: TS Leslie An Eventual Threat To Bermuda;TS Michael On The Rise
Tropical Storm Leslie and Tropical Storm Michael make up the current headlines in the tropics. Of course Leslie is of greatest concern at the moment but we'll discuss Michael this blog post as well.
Tropical Storm Leslie still has winds at around 65 MPH but is organizing and a more steady strengthening process is expected to begin by Thursday with this one likely becoming a hurricane by Friday or possibly sooner. The island of Bermuda really needs to keep a close eye on Leslie because chances are increasing of a major impact with hurricane-force winds...a direct hit is unclear but with the highly close proximity Leslie is forecast to have to Bermuda at closest approach, possibly as a category two or three, we can bet on some significant impacts such as damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The threat to the CONUS is much lower though New England coastline may wanna keep an eye in the long run in case trends shift further west...things are still uncertain with Leslie. High surf and rip currents are a certainty for much of the US Eastern Seaboard so if you're planning on swimming in the ocean waters while they're still warm, take extra caution at the least.
Let's get a touch on Tropical Storm Michael. It formed yesterday afternoon and is now a strengthening tropical storm with winds up to 50 MPH. More slow strengthening is expected and we might see a borderline hurricane from this one eventually towards the weekend--however we have very good news for everyone on land, it does not pose a threat to land in the foreseeable future. For shipping interests, of course as with every tropical system, that's a different story for those out over the open eastern Atlantic waters. Don't sail in high winds and seas.
Leslie Could Actually Be A Concern Later On
Since Isaac has now been fading out of the picture and Kirk has now gone pole-ward out of our sight, our attention should be focused on TS Leslie. It has weakened slightly some more but gradual re-strengthening is forecast and the reason why we should start to pay more attention to Leslie than we once thought: the forecast tracks shifted westward which increases the potential risk to Bermuda, Canada & potentially the Lower 48 if the tracks continue to shift westward, and the latest forecast now shows this a category two by Monday when it is forecast to be near Bermuda and possibly making a...NNW hook? Still the patterns favor it curving back NE eventually but it appears as though TS Leslie here is playing the westward game with us similar to what Earl did. Now I don't think this will directly impact the Lower 48 at this time and the actual outcome is over a week away for the Mainland US but there are some land masses in the path (Bermuda) and if it goes west of Bermuda, odds are Atlantic Canada may be affected eventually as well. For now let's just casually watch Leslie and by the end of the week, we'll likely have a much better grip on the land masses threatened by Leslie and what the threat levels are. The Gulf Coast does not need another hurricane after what happened with Isaac and fortunately for them, Leslie should stay far away.
TS Kirk & Leslie: Quick Update
This is a quick blog post on the tropics for September 1, 2012. As I will be on vacation 'til Monday, there will be no more blog posts 'til then. I'll make this one quick.
Tropical Storm Kirk is weakened from a hurricane and further weakening is expected. No land masses are threatened by Kirk.
Tropical Storm Leslie has slightly strengthened overnight but increased shear will prevent any further strengthening 'til at least Monday or Tuesday. Leslie is headed on a path that will keep it well away from the US or Caribbean islands...Bermuda will likely miss a direct hit too though they may need to keep an occasional eye in case tracks shift back westward.
Tropical Update 2012: As Isaac Dies, Kirk & Leslie Take Over Atlantic Basin
Isaac is a goner, though its remnants are still producing flooding rainfall over parts of the Midwest and South, which is also a good thing since much of the area currently affected is under a severe drought and the high rainfall amounts may greatly relieve the drought conditions.
Tropical Storm Leslie has temporarily stopped strengthening, with winds of around 65 MPH now. But more strengthening is forecast over the weekend and Leslie may reach hurricane strength by late Saturday/early Sunday before strengthening some more possibly to near CAT II status sometime next week. It is not an immediate threat to land, Bermuda may receive the outermost rain bands should it follow its current track but that's way too far out to tell so for now we're thinking Leslie should remain relatively out at sea. It's still something to casually watch for all of next week as we continue to roll into the busiest part of the hurricane season.
Hurricane Kirk has weakened from CAT II status earlier today and now has winds only at 90 MPH. More weakening is expected but should be slow to occur as Leslie races out to sea. No land masses are threatened by Kirk at this time.
Updated: 12:23 AM GMT on September 01, 2012
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