hurricaneben's WunderBlog: Covering Atlantic & EPAC Basins Since '09

Invest 99L Could Affect Caribbean, Possible Development

By: hurricaneben, 7:47 PM GMT on July 31, 2012

Happy last day of July and we are tracking Invest 99L, a gradually developing system in the Western Atlantic, as we gradually approach the peak of hurricane season. It's not very organized but is expected to develop and models take it into the Caribbean Sea within' the next few days but where it goes from there is not very clear at this time. A TD/TS forming by that time is certainly possible and regardless of development, it could be a wet one for areas such as the Windward Islands even up into Puerto Rico. So just an area of interest, nothing significant yet but one to keep an eye on for any long-range threats and developments down the road.

The system has a medium chance (30%) of TC formation by Thursday afternoon, according to the NHC.

Updated: 7:49 PM GMT on July 31, 2012

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Monitoring AOI In Open Atlantic

By: hurricaneben, 8:43 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

The Atlantic is relatively on the quiet side except for one area of interest (Invest 98L), with gale force winds, over the Open Atlantic Waters which could develop into something a bit more before hitting colder waters in 2-3 days. The NHC gives this a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation, which is up quite a bit from the 10% earlier this morning. Thing is: if it forms into a TD or TS (or not), it should most likely stay clear of land though one model takes into Nova Scotia (the rest keep it at sea).

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EPAC Continues To Erupt With Activity

By: hurricaneben, 7:29 PM GMT on July 10, 2012

The Atlantic Basin may be tranquil but the Eastern Pacific is on a completely opposite note. With 2 tropical cyclones (one a powerful category four, the other a weakening tropical storm) and possibly more to come in the short term, obviously the EPAC is our topic on the tropics this post. Fortunately, and surprisingly looking at the tropical picture, there is no immediate threat to land with any of the systems.

Hurricane Emilia
Let's begin with Hurricane Emilia, a powerful category four hurricane with winds at 130 MPH. It is moving WNW out to sea and further intensification is possible within' the next 12 to 24 hours before hitting cooler waters. A category five is unlikely, but definitely a possibility, so let's be glad that no one is in the path of Emilia...at least not at the moment. If it ever threatens land, which is very unlikely, it should be a whole lot weaker if it's even together by that time. Certainly a powerful one but not a threatening one.

TS Daniel
Weakening Tropical Storm Daniel seems harmless and is...there is no threat to land right now. It should pass a couple of hundred miles south of Hawaii at its closest approach on Friday, if it's even around by then which is also unlikely. With all that said, Daniel is not even a decent concern to any land mass either.

98E
Invest 98E is the closest to land, but also the weakest, not even a tropical cyclone yet and a couple of hundred miles off the Pacific Coast of Mexico. TD/TS formation is very possible in the short term, with the NHC giving it a 50% chance of TC formation by Thursday afternoon. However, none of the reliable models have it near land...not in the next several days, at least. With that said, it's only an area of interest.

I'll update tomorrow, though I'll be on vacation in the Buffalo NY area from Thursday into Sunday.

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Tracking Hurricanes Daniel & Emilia

By: hurricaneben, 3:05 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

As the Atlantic continues to enjoy quietness, 2 hurricanes are out there in the Eastern Pacific. Neither are a threat to land, but Emilia--a category two--is rapidly strengthening and could peak out as a category four by tomorrow before slowly weakening as it hits cooler waters. Other than high surf, there are no expected impacts in land at this time, in the foreseeable future. Daniel is a category one and farther away from land. Daniel does not pose a threat to land in the short term but Hawaii may see impacts farther down on the road, that's uncertain and not very likely but Hawaii may feel a bit of impacts if Daniel can hold itself together that long.

Overall, none of the systems pose an immediate threat to land.

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Tropical Update 2012: Atlantic Quiet, Daniel Almost A Hurricane, 97E One To Watch

By: hurricaneben, 9:12 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

While activity in the Atlantic basin (and it's supposed to remain that way for a bit longer) remains tranquil, the Eastern Pacific is starting to really cook up with TS Daniel close to hurricane strength but not a threat to land and developing 97E possibly one to watch more for Mexico, here is the latest on the tropics.

TS Daniel
Tropical Storm Daniel keeps on strengthening, now with winds of 70 MPH. Good thing is there is no notable significant threat to land but Daniel should strengthen quite some more and could reach its peak tomorrow as a higher end CAT I before conditions become unfavorable for major intensification. Again, Daniel should remain out at sea and well away from land at that so nobody should have much concern on Daniel, other than boaters in Daniel's path.

Invest 97E
Steadily developing, Invest 97E is one to watch just a bit more for the Pacific Coast of Mexico, at least in comparison to Daniel. It's very weak right now but a TD/TS certainly is possible over the next couple of days as it moves fairly close to the coastline of NW Mexico... enough to bring high surf at the very least and possibly quite more so it would be wise to occasionally keep updated with this area of interest but no one in land should be rushing to make preparations now as it's not an imminent direct threat.

I'll update when I can, though I may be on vacation this weekend.

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Tropical Update 2012; EPAC-Bound TS Daniel No Threat To Land

By: hurricaneben, 8:13 PM GMT on July 05, 2012

Tropical Storm Daniel, the fourth tropical storm this season in the Eastern Pacific is born with winds up to 45 MPH. Fortunately it does not pose any significant threat to land. Intensification should be gradual over the next few days, and a borderline hurricane is possible by tomorrow or Saturday. While there should be no hazardous land impacts, swimming off the Pacific Coast of Mexico could be risky with swells and rip currents.

There is another tropical disturbance closer to the Pacific Coast of Mexico but it is not a threat to develop.

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Tropical Update 2012; TD May Be Forming In EPAC

By: hurricaneben, 6:22 PM GMT on July 03, 2012

While the Atlantic remains quiet for the 4th Of July, the Eastern Pacific definitely has something cooking up. An area of interest, otherwise known as Invest 96E, is rapidly developing and very close to TD status. It has an 80% chance of becoming one within' the next 48 hours but the good news that it does not pose an immediate danger to land. Further intensification is likely and environment conditions are favorable for us seeing a tropical storm or hurricane over the open Pacific waters. Just watch out for the surf and rip currents while swimming off the Pacific Coast of Mexico, otherwise it looks like land is in the clear for now. I'll update sometime in the next 2 days.

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Tropical Update 2012: Tropics Quiet;Storms & Heat For Much Of East U.S.

By: hurricaneben, 6:01 PM GMT on July 01, 2012

The Atlantic basin (and E Pacific as well) is taking a bit of a break right now--at least when it comes to tropical activity. There are a few areas of interest, but none of them are expected to develop. A tropical wave brought isolated flash flooding to South Texas before the shower activity diminished overnight, and Debby's post-cyclone system are of no threat to develop. Meanwhile, excessive heat is putting a large portion of the U.S. on flames (not literally, but it's VERY hot out there) just as a violent line of thunderstorms killed at least 13 on Friday and caused significant wind damage which damaged many homes from Indiana to Virginia and beyond. Florida, which was getting the brunt of Debby last week, has been spared from all other than the heat and severe (or tropical) weather is not a concern here right now or even through the 4th of July.

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About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.