Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben, 12:35 AM GMT on March 25, 2012
Hi, welcome to my blog. I haven't posted all year, so I'll just take a shot at some simple predictions. We have had a very active hurricane season last year, but the impact on U.S. was fairly mild...well, if you discount the major damage done on the US East Coast by Hurricane Irene, which makes that season somewhat more than just mild. We have a little over 2 months to go 'til the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins. The TSR and WSI are seeing average to generally above average hurricane seasons, 14 and 12 named storms respectively by organizations. The US Gulf Coast looks to be at more risk than the East Coast, but it's a fair toss and we will see as patterns shift. My thinking is that due to the weakening La Nina and cooling of SSTs, we are going to see a somewhat less active upcoming hurricane season than the past 2 but we likely won't be overly quiet either. The way things are *heating* up, the total activity would probably be between average and decently above average. My wild guess would be 11 to 15 named storms and 5 to 7 hurricanes of which 2 to 4 become major. Let's see if I'm right and let's hope no populated area gets the 'Big One' hurricane wise...but this is hurricane season, and a lot can change in the tropics. Keep an eye out, I'll have the next blog post either in April/May or in the event that an organized off season tropical system forms. Also, I might be doing a daily or weekly update by numbers (e.g. #1, #2, #3) by the time hurricane season arrives, that is if I'm available. Check back on April or May for the next blog post.