hcubed's WunderBlog
Updated, Beryl did NOT become hurricane.
Posted by: hcubed, 7:43 AM GMT on May 28, 2012 +0
This makes the score 2/0/0, and the start of the season is only 3 days away.

So this year will not get an early season hurricane (unless the garbage in the Caribbean develops quickly).

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A

200 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE DATA NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING THE CENTER OF BERYL FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE OBSERVING SITE IN FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER OF BERYL OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
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Beryl closing in on hurricane strength.
Posted by: hcubed, 1:46 AM GMT on May 28, 2012 +0
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY ON THE COAST...SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...30.1N 80.5WABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDAABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMU...
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...and Beryl is born, updated...
Posted by: hcubed, 3:14 AM GMT on May 26, 2012 +0
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0220121100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC......TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...32.5N 74.8WABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM...
Updated: 8:42 AM GMT on May 26, 2012   Permalink | A A A
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94L not projected to hit the US
Posted by: hcubed, 2:29 AM GMT on May 24, 2012 +0
"...The disturbance is under a high 30 - 40 knots wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis. This high shear is not expected to diminish over the next few days, and 94L will have a tough time developing in the face of such high wind shear. The disturbance should move north-northeast across Cuba today and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas..."It's also not predicted to become a TS. It'll probably peak out a little...
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Hey, Mexico, this Buds for you.
Posted by: hcubed, 1:59 PM GMT on May 23, 2012 +0
Seems like the Pacific has it's second named storm, Tropical Storm Bud."...A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous fla...
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Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).

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