First Blog Entry

By: hcubed , 7:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2009

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Just putting up an initial blog entry. Will primarily use this blog to keep friends and family notified about my evacuation travels.

Not that I expect to evacuate any time soon, but you never know...

Standard evacuation from the base will be cat 3 or more, within 600 mi. Usually at "hurcon 2" which is posted 24 hours before landfall.

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67. hcubed
12:47 PM GMT on November 30, 2009
Last day of the 2009 hurricane season.

First day of the prep for the 2010 season.

There is supposed to be some rather nasty weather coming through here about Tues/Wed. Stuff rolling out of the GOM.

From N.O. NWS:

Long term...
a more complex weather scenario to develop early this week. Upper low currently cut off just south of Arizona will shift eastward towards the area as an upper trough dips southward just east of The Rockies.

Strong cyclogenesis to occur in the western Gulf Tuesday.

This surface low will approach the Gulf Coast Tuesday evening. Same story today in terms of the track of this low. European model (ecmwf) remains in The Middle Ground with NAM more northerly and GFS to the south."

GFS how predicting possibility of snow...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
66. hcubed
6:54 AM GMT on November 27, 2009
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1030 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

...FIRST FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

.A VERY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA...CLEAR SKIES...LOW DEWPOINTS AND CALM OR VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS THAT ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ST. FRANCISVILLE TO HAMMOND TO SLIDELL TO PASCAGOULA LINE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PIKE AND WALTHALL COUNTIES...WHERE AN HOUR OR TWO OF TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LAZ035>040-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-270030- /O.NEW.KLIX.FZ.W.0007.091127T0900Z-091127T1300Z/ WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON- ST. TAMMANY-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK- HARRISON-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON... GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA... FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE... CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB... TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD... GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT... GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN 1030 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THAT ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST. FRANCISVILLE TO HAMMOND TO SLIDELL TO PASCAGOULA.

First of the cold air. More to follow as the weekend progresses.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
65. hcubed
9:44 PM GMT on November 24, 2009
Well, the QuikScat sat dies today (10 years out).

"Several hours ago, shortly past 7:00Z today (23Nov), telemetry received from QuikSCAT indicates that the antenna rotation rate has dropped to zero and remains at zero. The motor remains powered. The system can be operated safely in this state for an indefinite period. The QuikSCAT operations team will be meeting later this morning, but in all likelihood this is the end of the nominal mission".

Gonna be rough next seaon without it. Some early warning and notification will be lost.

Now to the weather.

Big central plains storm forecast:

"An upper level system will bring some light Thanksgiving snows to the Midwest making it certainly feel like the holidays after what has been a very warm November in that region. This same upper level disturbance will help initiate a low pressure system off the east coast, but it appears the bulk of the weather associated with this system will stay off the coast. The upper level disturbance could still bring snow to parts of the Great Lakes and central/western NY/PA. The 6z GFS laid a swath of 6-12 inches in north-central PA Friday but that may be a bit overdone. I do think several inches are very possible along with the Lake Effect snow areas cranking up with strong northwest flow across the relatively warm Lakes Friday and Saturday.

This trough will bring some cold air to the Midwest and east for Thanksgiving weekend. But it appears the next storm system will crash into the Pacific Northwest with more rain and mountains snows, and then move into the southwestern and south-central US and in turn creating a downstream ridge over the southeast US which will likely warm the plains and then east back up above normal for next week.

This storm has the potential to be a big ticket item next week with the potential for significant snow in the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle by Sunday night and Monday. The storm could also spread snow into Kansas and Missouri as the weak goes on. The GFS is colder and also spreads snow further east but for now that may be too far east. But the potential is there for a big snow event for areas from Amarillo to Wichita to Kansas City early next week."

Trough may dip down to us. Cold around the First of Dec.


Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
64. hcubed
9:32 PM GMT on November 23, 2009
Hurrican season "ends" next Monday.

Now for the winter weather:

The tropics remain quiet as we get closer to the end of another season, which the final day is November 30.

A weak system should continue off the east coast and rapidly move NE over the next 24 hours. Winds of 25-30 kts will be confined to a relatively small area offshore, with seas along the coast nearing 2 ft above normal tidal range.

Analysis this afternoon shows that models are in agreement of a low moving eastward from over the Great Lakes region in about 48 hours, to over the New England area, with a low from off the Eastern Seaboard merging with this low, and eventually resulting in a gale center. This low is forecast to deepen as it moves to the NNE over and away frpm the New England area. Models are forecasting this to deepen significanlty, and could reach 980 to sub 980 mb.

Winds are expected to be around 40 kts in some regions offshore of the NJ, northward area, with an offshore flow. Seas could reach 21-24ft well offshore, and 12-15 ft close to Cape Cod and vicinity, otherwise 40-60 miles from the coast, again the flow being ofshore.

I expect snowfall from the Great Lakes regions, to portions of the northern Tennessee Valley, eastward to the NE and New England area.

I expect freezing temperatures to reach as far south as potions of the Tennessee Valley, and in a line east and north of that area.

I'm looking for colder temperatures as far south as the MS/AL/LA area with low's ranging from the upper 30's in some locations, to low to mid 40's in other portions. Please check your local NWS forecast for further details.

"Storm"

The forecast shows lows in the mid 30's, no freeze/snow mentioned (yet).
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
63. hcubed
8:28 AM GMT on November 21, 2009
9 left.

DrM's latest post continues the pro-AGW stuff.

No comment on what is obviously a faulty theory.

I will still use the blog to get my hurricane info, but the whole AGW debate is nothing more than a series of circumstantial ties, especially when you consider that the majority of the "climate scientists" refuse to release the data and code they used to make their claims of "unprecedented" warming.

If the release of the CRU data includes all of the data they collected, then the science can continue. Till then, they shouldn't make claims they can't back up.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
62. hcubed
9:46 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
13 left.

The main Dr M blog is off on the AGW kick again, says he'll probably post another entry around the end of Nov.

Will read it then.

Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
61. hcubed
5:39 PM GMT on November 17, 2009
14 left.

From StormW:

"Elsewhere, Global models are fairly agreeable of another small, 24-30 hour Nor'easter event developing on or about 23-24 November. An area of low pressure is forecast to move up from the GOMEX, NEWD, then exit into the Atlantic off the eastern seaboard near the OBX, then as it moves offshore NEWD, should begin to deepen near the RI/Cape Cod vicinity. I will be taking a further look at this daily, to give models a chance to recalculate strength of winds and seas. ANY system that remains close to the coast this winter season, with any strong onshore flow (wave wise), could cause problems along those beaches affected by the IDA GALE system, due to the extensive beach erosion that occured."

May be the "deep south ice storms" projected before Thanksgiving - or maybe not. Need to see how close the low gets.

From the NWS:

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW....STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY POSSIBLY OCCUR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND MISSISSIPPI COAST SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
60. hcubed
9:04 PM GMT on November 16, 2009
15 left.

From DrM:

"Only two weeks remain in the Atlantic hurricane season, but the hurricane season of 2009 is effectively over. While the Western Caribbean is still warm enough to support development of a hurricane--as it is year-round--wind shear over the entire North Atlantic has risen to levels prohibitively high for tropical storm formation to occur. Wind shear is forecast to remain very high for at least the next ten days."

Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
59. hcubed
12:40 PM GMT on November 12, 2009
18 days left.

Just to make sure, I'll start to work on the hurricane box the 1st of Jan, and blog about the contents of the boxes, the van, and the prep for an evacuation season.

This works out, because in Feb 2010, I'll have been in hurricane country (Biloxi MS and Keesler AFB) for 25 years. First Major was Elena.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
58. hcubed
6:38 PM GMT on November 11, 2009
19 days left, and no major threats. But then again, Ida wasn't predicted, either.

And as much entertainment value the tacoman posts are, I'll drop them. It's already been proven that he has no desire to answer emails, or even acknowledge his mistakes (or to stop forecasting forever like he promised).

So I'll continue with the REAL forecasters, the ones that have the standing to back up their forecasts.

Such as DrM:

Invest 98L no threat

Another extratropical storm (Invest 98L), currently spinning over the Atlantic a few hundred miles northwest of Puerto Rico, is showing no signs of development, and will be entering a region of very high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots on Thursday. It currently appears that 98L will swing northward and northeast out to sea on Friday and Saturday, and not merge with the extratropical remnants of Ida currently pounding North Carolina.

And StormW:

Elsewhere, INVEST 98L is still with us, however I am not expecting this to develop, and based on current and forecast steering information, I do not believe this to be merging with the remnants of IDA. This should continue toward the WNW-NW for the next 24-36 hours, then eventually NEWD.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
57. hcubed
9:07 PM GMT on November 10, 2009
Missed the count somehow - now 20 days left to the end of the season.

Well, Ida came ashore early this morning, at Dauphin Island (south of Mobile), just below hurricane strength.

Spent yesterday at work, got home and buttoned up the house/yard. Moved the loose stuff, pulled things up close to the house, etc.

We got a lot of rain/wind, but nothing severe.

There is another invest out there, but it's heading for east coast.

This storm (Ida), may just have been the last for the season.

Will wait a bit before removing the carrier, though. Need to inspect the mounts, check for cracks, etc.

Also need to dump the hurricane box and do a date check on batteries, etc. Income tax will replenish these.

Need to decide next year about which TV's to take. The one portable has the best lights, while the new digital portable has very poor reception.

The tool box also needs to be re-worked. It has way too much stuff that could go into a smaller box.

So next years "blog" will include the things needed to ensure safe travel, keeping track of the "important" stuff.

Every year, we find a new tool or a new way to lay out the van. This years trip to Aurora was helpful, in that we MAY have to go all the way if the house is unliveable. Proved that one person can drive the trip, that the path worked (need to watch the gas, though), and found a few new helpful items, and essentials.

All this will make it into the blog.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
56. hcubed
7:13 AM GMT on November 08, 2009
23 days to end of season.

19 days to ice storms.

About 3 days to the hurricane making a brush against the coast.

Every time the dynamic model runs are updated, the "loop" goes farther inland.

IMHO, the storm will make landfall around Mobile as a weak cat 1, and then make a curve inland, over Ala, Ga, and Fla. If the "loop" pans out, may just go north to south over Fla.

Will wait to see what the NHC cone shows by Mon.

Well, as I predicted, the "loop" went farther north.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

A WATCH MEANS THAT THE STATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOR THE SPECIFIED AREAS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 AM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS IS ABOUT 660 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT MS...OR ABOUT 610 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND ISLE LA.
STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 90 MPH.

A day and a half. Puts their timeline at 9PM Mon.

New blog from DrM:

The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. Some slow intensification is still possible while Ida remains over the exceptionally warm water of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico, through tonight (Figure 2). Late tonight, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26%uFFFDC, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. With shear still expected to be at 20 -25 knots, I expect weakening to begin early Monday morning and accelerate on Monday afternoon. At that time, Ida will encounter 40 knots of wind shear associated with a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico, and begin transitioning to an extratropical storm. Exactly how strong Ida will be when it reaches the coast early Tuesday morning--and indeed if Ida even does reach the coast--is a forecast with high uncertainty. The computer models have a tough time forecasting the evolution of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone, and the models are all over the place on what will happen. Most of the models foresee a landfall near 1 am EST Tuesday between Mississippi and Pensacola, Florida, then a path northeastward over the Southeast U.S. However, Ida could come to halt before reaching the coast and turn west towards Tampa (the UKMET model's forecast), or turn south back over the Gulf of Mexico (the NOGAPS model's forecast). In any case, storm surge and heavy rain appear to be the main hazards from Ida. The GFDL model (Figure 3) is forecasting rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches for a large swath of the Gulf Coast, and there is a risk of tornadoes if the warm air from the core of Ida pushes ashore.

Might have to start bringing things in tomorrow after work. But there's a posibility that base may shut down at noon.

HH are still out, but appear to have found cat 2 winds. Waiting for NHC on intermediate report.

And here it is:

AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

So let's check the map:

Showing a quick right-hand turn just off the coast below mobile, and becoming sub-tropical then. Time still says 6am on Tues.

This just in from the TWC (tacoman weather center):

12:16 PM CST on November 08, 2009

my forecast was dead on i said ida would get to 100mph winds and move nw no one would believe me not even the famous bob breck who told the people in se la they had nothing to worry about it was november not august...he is a joke he shouldnt even be on tv...what do you have to say now breck...enough of that people we are dealing with a cat 2 now..its not going to get any stronger then that...its a game of wait and see for the la and miss coasts...ida has lots of time to bend either west or east..ida will continue to hold her own maybe weakening a tad but will come on shore with hurricane force winds..its the wobbles we have to be concerned with the more ida wobbles to the west the closer ida will come to new orleans monday night..right now i project ida to come within 75 miles of the mouth of the river but that could change if she wobbles west...well thats the latest info as of now ill be back on about 4pm...i would say se la is in for high tides 4 to 6 ft above normal heavy rains from 6-10inches and winds of 50 to 60 mph some gusts to hurricane force...so people i would be cleaning out gutters and picking up anything you may have outside that could become a projectile when the winds start to increase late tonight...dont wait until conditions go down hill do this now...tacoman

And this from the person who posted this gem:

9:47 AM CDT on September 30, 2009
...im so sure the season is over for the united states if we have a land falling tropical storm or hurricane i will stop forecasting all together...

And then replied with this:

12:34 PM CST on November 08, 2009

hcubed no doubt in my mind its going to be a land falling hurricane winds of 80mph...somewhere between grand isle and mobile she will make land fall it depends when the strong trough come in...if she speeds up and the more west she wobbles it spells more trouble for se la and miss...and east wobble would spell trouble for thos eat of us ..it will still come a shore with hurricane force winds though...tacoman

and again:

12:51 PM CST on November 08, 2009

all i can say bob breck sure stuck his foot in his mouth he has done that quite a bit lately..he said last night no chance for a cat 3 in the gulf he laughed at everyone he said and i quote that the most that would come of this would be a strong tropical storm nothing to worry about...man doesnt this guy know he is dealing with peoples lives..he always wants to be on top of the nhc for some reason...i think he has a serious grudge with them...go figure..all i can say if you want hurricane coverage stay here dont watch fox...tacoman

and these:

12:52 PM CST on November 08, 2009

i agree kman winds to 120 mph at 4pm...not a good situation at all...tacoman

717. tacoman 12:54 PM CST on November 08, 2009

centex i been doing that i said 80mph when ida slams the coast...tacoman

And, somehow, still brings it back to NOLA:

1:19 PM CST on November 08, 2009

ida is definitely on the nw track at 14 mph...this could be a huge factor if this keepd up the cone may have to be shifted a tad west at 4pm..not good for new orleans..ida needs to start moving more north..this tells me the boc system is getting its act together and ida will follow behind it a double whammy....tacoman

Well, as much fun as tacoman is, reality takes a front seat:

11/8/2009 - KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE, Miss. -- Keesler is now in Hurricane Condition 4. The National Weather Service has forecast hurricane category two force winds to hit the Gulf Coast area within 72 hours.

During HURCON 4, personnel living in the dormitories should listen to the latest weather bulletins and follow instructions from squadron or unit commanders.

Will have to see exactly what tomorrow has planned, could curtail training tomorrow at noon.

Ida is up to 105, cat 2, and about 445 mi away. Traveling at 12, makes estimated landfall at 37 hrs away. Still forecast to hit about noon on Tues.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
55. hcubed
8:32 PM GMT on November 07, 2009
24 days to end of season.

20 days to ice storms.

From DrM:

The forecast for Ida

The moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots should allow for continued slow but steady intensification of Ida through Sunday afternoon, as long as the center remains over water. I give Ida a medium (30 - 50% chance) of reaching Category 1 hurricane strength before arriving at the Yucatan, since the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is so high. We'll have a better idea of Ida's current strength early this afternoon, when the Hurricane Hunters have had time to investigate the storm.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 46% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. The odds of receiving hurricane force winds are given as 3%. Given the current trend in organization of Ida, these numbers should probably be bumped up to about 60% and 5%, respectively.

Once Ida crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night, the storm will encounter much cooler SSTs and a strong trough of low pressure that will dump cold air into the storm and bring 40 knots of wind shear. This will cause Ida to lose its tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds. It is highly unlikely that Ida will hit the U.S. as a tropical storm, but it could still bring tropical storm-force winds of 45 mph to the coast next week as an extratropical storm.

From StormW:

Regardless of either scenario, there is a lot of energy to deal with, and the GOMEX is going to be a nasty place over the next week. Wherever IDA makes land fall, I would AT LEAST look for moderate to possibly strong TS force conditions...again, BASED ON THE CURRENT ANALYSIS PARAMETERS.

I STRONGLY RECOMMEND all residents from the central Gulf Coast states, to the Tampa Florida area monitor this situation VERY CLOSE.

I further recommend that ALL residents in the same areas, STAY OFF THE WATER AND AWAY FROM THE BEACHES UNTIL THIS EVENT IS FINISHED! LET'S NOT GET A CASE OF TERMINAL STUPIDITY.

FOR USCG MLCLANT/LANTAREA:

Recommend any floating units in the path take immediate evasive action, and units along the coast from AL to west FL be prepared to initiate their Heavy WX porcedures on short notice if needed.

And from tacoman:

4:04 PM GMT on November 07,2009

the dominant feature the surface low in the boc will end up steering ida more nnw or nw...this is a real bad situation for the northern gulf coast..we could get windsnear hurricane force and torrential rain from sunday thru tuesday..tacoman

Now back to the real world:

AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH

and:

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 84.1W AT 07/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 270 MILES...430 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.

But tacoman continues:

6:26 PM GMT on November 07, 2009 Hide this comment.
this is the right info i wish jeff would stop misleading all the newcomers on here and quit saying ida is going nne..ITS NOT...ida is moving north and in the next 6 to 12 hours will turn nnw or nw ...so you people on cozumel island should be on your toes for this storm..the boc system is really starting to get its act together...i would not be at all surprised if the recon checks this on the way back...this bears watching for the la and miss coasts...tacoman

and:

6:37 PM GMT on November 07, 2009

it may not mean nothing it could mean a shift to the west more like i been saying for the last 2 hours...that could be starting to take shape now...cozumel be on your toes...tacoman

and:

6:40 PM GMT on November 07, 2009

kman you said it all and you are right on the money ida is still moving n right now no east movement nor will they be one...tacoman

6:46 PM GMT on November 07, 2009

aquak they are not being conservative hun they have nothing to report ida has not become a hurricane and the conditions will not allow that...ida is starting to spread out more and i believe she is starting the phase of a subtropical storm...she is in very difficult elements now...its not going to get any better as time goes along...tacoman

and:

6:59 PM GMT on November 07, 2009

i agree 100% kman the spin they are seeing is in the middle layer not at the surface..im continuing to see the boc system becoming better organized as times goes by....tacoman

and:

7:02 PM GMT on November 07, 2009

storm i suggest you get a strong pair of glasses pal ida is on a direct north heading...tacoman

and concerning the other GOM mess:

7:12 PM GMT on November 07, 2009

reed i mentioned that 24 hours ago where you been....i told everyone that was a good possibility of that happenening...i was very concerned for the northern gulf...we dont need that we had more then our share of rain here...tacoman

but back to IDA:

7:15 PM GMT on November 07, 2009

yes storm she is being influenced by the boc system the one you guys say is weal and looks like crap have to laugh on that ....ida will be on a nnw to nw movement for the next 18 hours before she turns back towards the north...tacoman

and:

8:44 PM GMT on November 07, 2009

ok reed we are both finally on the same page here pal...it took until november but we finally agree...that in itself is scary lol...this could bew one whopper of a storm and shear may not hurt it to much we will have to see...tacoman

And the real story:

AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 195 MILES...320 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH.

And Key West gets the gale force wind warning:

KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-430 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS...

And the day goes on:

AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH.

And back to hurricane:

HURRICANE IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1115 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...IDA REACHES HURRICANE INTENSITY...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 120 MILES... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO... RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH. THIS INDICATES THAT IDA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED HURRICANE STATUS... WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 75 MPH.

And one last tacoman report for today:

11:17 PM CST on November 07, 2009 Hide this comment.
this a special weather bulletin for the la and miss area..information just out of my office indicates ida is now a hurricane and after looking at all the data and satellite pics ida has winds of 90mph which will be confirmed by recon plane in the morning...people in la and miss area will begin to experience squalls by sunday afternoon and conditions will just go down hill until tuesday..ida has picked up speed and it seems will beat the boc surface low to the gulf coast..ida is now moving nnw at 14mph and may increase even more then that..a gale warning will be issued for the la and miss coasts sunday morning..all interests in la and miss can expect winds gusting to near hurricane force and rainfall rates of 8-12 inches..people this is a very dangerous situation flooding of roads out of the levee protection system will become impassable..a tornado watch will be issued for our area tomorrow afternoon and go through monday evening...i will be back with new info out of my office about 10am...this is the time to get all hurricane supplies together folks we will lose power and we will have some trees down..i would advise all people in la and miss to keep abreast of this dangerous weather system that is developing...tacoman

So far, recon found 90MPH winds, so:

11:56 PM CST on November 07, 2009

thats what i said a little while ago 90mph hurricane would be confirmed by recon you guys need to listen when i talk...tacoman
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
54. hcubed
7:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009
25 days to end of season.

21 days to deep south ice storms.

NHC says:

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR 15.0N 84.0W...OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. IDA IS MOVING NORTH 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

Puts it at 1091 mi away. 181 hrs, 7.5 days out. 13th (payday).

Today's StormW forcast:

Based on the most current wind shear forecast maps, IF the GFS wind shear forecast is correct, I see no reason why IDA could not make it to strong Tropical Storm stregnth, and possibly CATEGORY 1 Hurricane status. Based on the current NHC track, this could be entirely possible. The next 48-72 hours will be the most crucial, and will determine whether or not this could pan out.

Right now, I concur with the NHC forecast track, and I favor the left side of the Dynamic Model Consensus for the first 24 hours once the center of IDA is back over water. The current ridge seems to be progressing very slowly eastward, and may hang on enough to impart more of a westerly component for a short term, then more NNW and eventually the recurve. Until I see a change in the forecast steering layers maps, this scenario appears to be the best solution right now, though I believe the Big Bend area seems to hold the highest probability at the moment.

Given the current uncertainty, until a well established, faster forward motion materializes, I recommend all interests from the MS/LA border to the Florida Big Bend area monitor the progress of IDA closely. I will try to have another update tonight, albeit it may be late.

And from DrM:

The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Still in the 5 day cone. Still watching...

There is a coastal flood watch out.

HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
347 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING TO HIGHER THE NORMAL LEVELS AND PERSIST AT HIGHER LEVELS DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
53. hcubed
7:47 PM GMT on November 05, 2009
26 days to end of season.

22 days to deep south ice storms.

Ida made it to hurricane strength, hit land, dropped to TS. Should spend about next 2 days over land, may still make it.

The latest sfwmd tropic model charts are bunched towards the coast.

Need to watch. Distance 1223, stationary, 65MPH.

Now for the tacoman chronicles:

10:13 AM CST on November 05, 2009

"i can tell you guys sorry to burst your bubble ida wont make it off the land area thanks to the disturbance in the pacific...it will take on a more wnw to nw path as it gets over the land area..info from my office says after 36 hours over land you can put a fork in ida she will be well done...im more concerned about this low in the boc its becoming more concentrated...its subtropical bur i would not at all be surprised if they sent a recon plane into this system saturday morning and gale warnings would be issued for the la coast...very dangerous situation looming folks pay attention over the weekend dont get caught off guard...tacoman"

and:

10:19 AM CST on November 05, 2009

"p451 whats your problem man ...just trying to get the info out to the public not trying to scare the hell out of the fla people over nothing...ida is done man..learn about the weather before you try to forecast it pal...you are pathetic..tacoman"

and:

10:36 AM CST on November 05, 2009
"reed you know you need sleep pal you need to take a chill pill before you get a cardiac over nothing...ida is done man she will never get off land ...the wnw movement will take place and ida will be toast like you will be reed if you dont get your sleep...tacoman"

and:

10:43 AM CST on November 05, 2009
"lol@timtrice...reed is possessed with ida he is willing her over the mountainous terrain back into the caribbean....the man needs help...tacoman"

Still doesn't have a clue...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
52. hcubed
2:02 PM GMT on November 04, 2009
27 days to end of season.

23 days to deep south ice storm.

700 AM EST WED NOV 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA... COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

So 97L goes to red. Probably a TD/TS already.

Tracks still got it going more northerly. Must watch this one...

Location: 04/1145 UTC 10.9N 81.6W T2.0/2.0 97L

Distance is 1408. Will have to go slightly west to get to us.

We now have TD11. Means the NHC will start their "cone of death" maps.

11/04/2009 01:54PM invest _RENUMBER _al972009_ al112009.ren

New post by DrM, and new round of posts by tacoman:

8:52 AM CST on November 04, 2009
this will be nothing more then a rainmaker for honduras nicaurauga and maybe down the road the yucatan..nothing to get overly concerned about yet..the depression is close to land and that will keep it from developing..so right now honduras and nic need to keep and eye on this for heavy rains and mudslides...i dont see this a threat to the lower 48 down the road...tacoman

and:

9:09 AM CST on November 04, 2009
reed take a deep breath man ...this will be nothing more then a rainmaker 456 said it best it will hug the land and it will keep this thing in check...so reed try to get some sleep big guy...tacoman

and:

9:34 AM CST on November 04, 2009
reed i think you need a pair of glasses you are seeing things man ..you need some sleep..tacoman

and:

9:53 AM CST on November 04, 2009
i am more concerned about the subtropical low that may be forming in the boc...this spells big trouble for the la coast over the weekend..this could spin up into quite a system...the latest info out of my office says it could be approaching winds of hurricane force and some torrential rains not to mention the tides will be high for se louisiana...a system bears watching..i want to emphasize there is no chance of this low taking on tropical characteristics...i will be watching this very closely..another bulletin on this low will come out tomorrow morning ...tacoman

and:

10:11 AM CST on November 04, 2009
reed you are jumping the gun guy the recon will not find a tropical storm when they go down there...its to close to land reed...tacoman

So, anyhow, the latest cone from the NHC doesn't stretch far, because of the speed. It appears to be heading for the Cuba/Yucatan gap right now. Open season from there.

To contuinue the tacoman postings:

10:38 AM CST on November 04, 2009
reed you are batting a goose egg my friend...you are a wishcaster and want a storm to hit fla so bad lol...you need a shrink im just stating the facts pal...your depression will not become a tropical storm at least for the next 24 hours...tacoman

and:

10:45 AM CST on November 04, 2009
burn im just giving a opinion im sorry you dontlike it pal if anyones a troll around here its you ...you need a shrink telling everyone to ignore me...you could be causing many lives in louisiana and not to mention property...you are one sick individual pal...tacoman

Well, appears to be a TS now. Hello, Ida!

AL 11 2009110418 BEST 0 118N 823W 35 1005 TS

Location @ 1PM EST: 11.8n 82.3W Moved .2N/.3W

Puts distance at 1334 mi, movement WNW@7. At that speed, still about 8 days away. Next Wed, Vets Day.

Recon still in the storm, seems to support call to become Ida.

Looking at the sfwmd.gov site, their track model page shows increasing confidence in a LA/MS hit.

Latest advisory from NHC:

AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

Sets distance at 1314. Movement is WNW@6. Now 219 hrs/9.125 days away.

Track was moved to west.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
51. hcubed
1:14 PM GMT on November 03, 2009
28 days to end of season.

24 days to deep ice storms.

New invest forming?

700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF COSTA RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

According to the TWO, 96L is not given much chance, and this blob is. Could be a player next weekend for us - as a minimal hurricane.

And we now have 97L. We will now see model forecasts on this one.

AL, 97, 2009110312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 815W, 25, 1009, DB

Early models take it ashore to Nicaragua and Honduras, and back out into the BOC.

DrM's new post:

The forecast for 97L

"Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and 97L will move little over the next three days. If the disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, 97L will tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into 97L's circulation, bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to these areas Wednesday through Friday. There is a high potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these regions. By Friday, steering currents are expected to pull 97L north or northwest, along the coast of Nicaragua or inland over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras. By Monday, 97L may pass over Western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model; an alternate solution, provided by the GFS model, keeps the storm farther south, pushing it into Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. With the storm just beginning to organize and steering currents weak, it is impossible to rate the likelihood of these scenarios. NHC is currently giving 97L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I rate 97L's chances at high (greater than 50%). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 97L on Wednesday afternoon."

Might possibly become Ida, and head for the Gulf Coast. Still watching.

96L deactivated:

11/03/2009 05:36PM 2,271 invest _ DEACTIVATE _ al962009.ren
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
50. hcubed
1:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
29 days to end of season.

25 days to deep south ice storms.

This morning:

700 AM EST MON NOV 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 30 TO 50 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

This means red circle.

Something new - from the HPC (THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER):

THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL AND/OR HYBRID SURFACE LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DAYS 6/7...WITH THE CANADIAN ORIGINATING THE LOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ECMWF FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE GFS POSSIBLY FROM BOTH REGIONS. SPEED/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE LOW ARE ALSO CONSIDERABLE BY DAY 7 AND ARE DUE IN PART TO SOLUTION DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD A DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...WHICH ESSENTIALLY AVERAGES THE GFS/ECMWF AND DISREGARDS THE VIGOROUS AND SOMEWHAT FAST CANADIAN.

Their maps put a low in the middle of the GOM in 7 days (next mon, 9th).

And DrM agrees:

"Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niņo conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks."


Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
49. hcubed
5:09 PM GMT on November 01, 2009
30 days to end of season.

26 days to the deep south ice storms (this from WU's best forecaster, tacoman)

Now the latest:

700 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

And is now 96L:

AL 96 2009110112 BEST 0 316N 531W 45 998 DB

And an update from the doc:

"96L is looking very photogenic, but is still extratropical. With 25C SSTs and plenty of thunderstorms firing up at the center, it will start to warm its core today, and will be a hybrid system by Monday. Whether it will cross the ill-defined magical line that causes it to be named "Ida" remains improbable at present, but it tough to forecast the thinking of the forecasters at NHC sometimes."

Now at orange:

100 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD.

And now red circle:

700 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
48. hcubed
4:56 AM GMT on October 31, 2009
31 days to end of season.

27 days to the deep south ice storms.

Dr M:

"There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 32N 50W, is cutting off from the jet stream and will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next 3 - 4 days. It is possibly that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. The storm could bring high winds to Bermuda on Monday. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Most of the models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week."

StormW:

"None of the computer models indicate development during the next 72 hours. Models however are pretty much in agreement of a low developing in the mid Atlantic near 30N;48W beginning around Saturday to Monday. Upper level winds are not forecast to be conducive, however water temps may allow this feature to become a sub-tropical storm. Model consensus indicates this to move westerly, passing just east of Bermuda on Monday sometime and recurving, possibly having an affect on Nova Scotia. This situation will be monitored for any changes.

Based on the forecast MJO pattern, current thought on the RMM1;RMM2 chart, and shear pattern over the next week, as strange as this season has been, I am not willing to count the season out, until Nov.30."

Still not out of the woods...

Edit: Updated Dr M:

"A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26%uFFFD C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.

None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model."

From NHC:

200 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. TRANSITION OF THIS LOW INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
47. hcubed
7:15 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
32 days to end of season.

28 days to the deep south ice storms.

from Doc Masters:

"There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the middle-Atlantic on Monday, and may spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a nice discussion of the meteorology of this storm, which may bring high winds to Bermuda next week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico by the middle of next week."
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
46. hcubed
4:28 PM GMT on October 28, 2009
33 left.

Latest from tacoman:

8:35 AM CDT on October 28, 2009

"been saying this all along i tried to tell you guys this elnino was getting stronger in august but no one would listen..it took the famous dr masters to set you guys straight...i got new for you we will have snow before xmas and there will be quite a bit..4-6 incnes is not out of the question for the deep south...tacoman"

This time he MAY be right.

To continue:

8:43 AM CDT on October 28, 2009

"we will have strong subtropical systems developing in the gulf and producing ice storms for the deep south as early as thanksgiving..this will be one of the coldest winters on record for the deep south and the wettest...get out the snow shovels.its going to be a rough ride...tacoman"

So, ice storms in the deep south by TG. 33 days to end of season, 29 days to ice storms.

Naturally, when called to task about his previous errors, he gets personal:

9:03 AM CDT on October 28, 2009

"IKE THE SHEAR TOOK OVER BECAUSE OF THE STRONG ELNINO...IKE WAKE UP AND LEAVE THE BOTTLE ALONE CONCENTRATE MAN THIS I GOING TO BE AND ALL TIME RECORD BREAKING WINTER IN THE DEEP SOUTH PAL...TACOMAN"

This just in - Hell freezes over...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
45. hcubed
2:59 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
34 left.

From Doc Masters:

"Quiet in the Atlantic

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane, the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry at present. One possible area of concern early next week may be near Bermuda, where the models indicate a large non-tropical low may cut off from the jet stream 6 - 7 days from now. This low could potentially remain over warm waters long enough to acquire tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Such a storm would only be a threat to Bermuda."
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
44. hcubed
6:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
35 left.

Quiet - too quiet...

From StormW:

"None of the computer models shows any development during the next 5-7 days. The window for anything further this season is starting to shrink. As we enter next week (later on in the week), conditions exhibit a situational development pattern. Models are still showing a rather decent upward motion phase of the MJO remaing through the first half of next week. Moisture is forecast to be on the increase over the western Caribbean area, and the most recent runs of the wind shear forecast maps indicate upper level winds could become more conducive in about 5-6 days.

Based on this, I will be monitoring the Western Caribbean and GOMEX during next week. This in all actuality should probably be the last chance for development this season, though with the way this season has been...who knows for November."

From Doc Masters:

"There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean."

From tacoman:

THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
43. hcubed
5:14 PM GMT on October 25, 2009
36 left.

Nothing much, so back to the tales of tacoman...

9:12 AM CDT on October 25, 2009

"reed you need to get on your knees and say some prayers if you want the season to be active next year...by the looks of it ei nino may stick around for most of next year...tacoman"

So that means an extremely active season next year.

His 2009 prediction (or, more precicely, guess), was for 6 storms. Wound up with 8.


Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
42. hcubed
5:27 PM GMT on October 24, 2009
37 left.

nothing yesterday, that 95L track was bouncing around. Still showng up with a E coast of fla track. No threat for us.

But there is still one area of concern - from the infamous tacoman:

tacoman 8:46 AM CDT on October 24, 2009

i was not on yesterday because i was banned for i dont know what....oh well todays another day...latest info out mt office indicates things are just about as i lefet you the only thing is its going to take a little longer then i expected...a rapidly strengthing system could start to delvelop by tuesday and all interests in jamaica should pay attention on the dangerous system..its to early to tell if this system is going to affect south fla...i can tell you you people are not out of the woods yet so pay attention and i will jkeep you informed...shear has slacked off very quickly and the ssts remain 20 degrees celcius.this area will get its act together as the big high is forecast to build over the system on monday.also a trough is forecast to build in just north of the disturbance and complicate things....state tuned for more information on this dangerous situation...tacoman "

Got banned, and he doesn't know why?

Get a clue, tacoman...

8:51 AM CDT on October 24, 2009

"mik i really dont know what kind of info you are gettng but you are sticking your foot in your mouth...youneed to go back and read the suface observations for the next 7 days...tacoman"

8:55 AM CDT on October 24, 2009

"tampa everyone is in for a big surprise...on tuesday all hell will break loose...tacoman"

9:00 AM CDT on October 24, 2009

well a huge high will build over the sw caribbean sea..to put a fly in the ointment a strong trough will develop just north of the disturbance and cause it to strengthen...the ingredient are coming together for a whoppper of a hurricane...fla just pay attentin jamaica is unjder the gun...tacoman"

9:47 AM CDT on October 24, 2009

"i dont follow that pearl...i have enough with the atlatic hurricane season.i want to stress this the ATLANTIC SEASON is not over ...pay attenetion..dont get caught off guard.....tacoman"

So, in short, the usual stuff from the world's best forecaster, who, BTW, has said the season is over, and nothing will enter the GOM.

So to repeat his earlier post:

9:47 AM CDT on September 30, 2009
nothing because we wont have one dude..im so sure the season is over for the united states if we have a land falling tropical storm or hurricane i will stop forecasting all together..what will you do tornado dude if you are wrong.."

Such a sad, little man...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
41. hcubed
12:00 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
39 left.

This is new:

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Heads it towards the US.

According to the great tacoman, the US is going to be hit by a disastercane sometime within the next week.

tacoman 8:40 PM CDT on October 21, 2009

"we may have a really serious situation on our hands...this is the last bang of the 2009 hurricane season...information i just received from my office is not good...conditions are changing pretty fasy down in the sw caribbean...a tropical depression may form as ealy as friday as the wind shear drops off to 5-10 knots and the sst are in the mid to high 80s..the dry air will not make it that far south and this spells trouble for the cayman islands, jamaica and the western tip of cuba ealy next week..all interests in that area of the caribbean should keep abreast of whats going on...there is a 60% chance once the depression forms it will have spurts of rapid intensification not to mention copious amounts of rain mudslides and very dangerous weather conditions..all interests in s fla the central and northern bahamas should be ready to take quick action to protect life and property...this surface low is starting to get its act together and it wont take long before we have a full fledged hurricane on our hands..i will have another update in the morning new info will be coming into my office at that time...tacoman"

Later, he specifies the "track":

tacoman 9:18 PM CDT on October 21, 2009

"devil it will not go above 23 degrees north..you are very well protected if you live n of 23 degrees...cold fronts and dry air will protect us if this hurricane tries to penetrate this force field it will dir so it will take the easy way and head for s fla..not a good situation developing at all...tacoman"

Later, when told that all of fla is north of 23 degrees, he replies:

9:28 PM CDT on October 21, 2009

"devil i think you need a lesson in geography man...look at your map you will see jamaica is first in line then comes the caymans cuba and fla...devil its hard for you to comprehend just think of a huge rubber band across 23 degrees north..if the storm tries to penetrate this force field it gets pushed to the south a storm cant go into dry air and ssts in the mid 70s and survive man...do you understand now..tacoman"

And yet he continued when people still tried to get a handle on his "track":

9:32 PM CDT on October 21, 2009

"devil it doesnt affect it to the east thats the ally way this storm will take im well aware the keys are at 25 degrees..it will take a ne patyh right over s and central fla...what i meant devil is it cant come in the gulf im talking about the extreme se gom not in the central gulf cant happen...tacoman"

Still not enough, he continues:

9:38 PM CDT on October 21, 2009

"ike you know dam well what im talking about ...you know the storm will cross fla and move ne out into the atlantic and weaken...ike you know this storm cant come that far north because of the hostile conditions ...iks i thought you knew something about geography...gee..im tired of explaining this ike you of all people...devil is probably a kid learning but you ...ike have you been hitting the bottle...tacoman"

Yep, he got personal.

And more:

9:46 PM CDT on October 21, 2009

"ike i didnt mean on a ne course it has to cross 25 degrees on its way out into the atlantic...i meant north 0f 23 if it moves dur north it cant penetrate 23 degrees north...the reason why it affects the bahams jamaica nad the caymans devil a hurricane has gale force winds outahead of it and if you are on the ne side thats the worse part of the storm so look at your map imagine a hurricane over jamaica moving nne to ne and tell me who is in its path..i cant explain it any better man...tacoman"

That phrase is probably the best...

So all in all, we MIGHT (if we can believe the great tacoman) have a Wilma on our hands.

Or it could be another typical tacoman forcast.

Don't panic, his story will change tomorrow.

Well enough tacoman. Now for the REAL experts.

Dr Masters:

"Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 20 knots, and there is a deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, so we still need to keep an eye on this disturbance. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. No models predict development of this system over the next seven days, but I'll continue to give a medium (30 - 50% chance) that a Western Caribbean tropical depression will form sometime in the next ten days.

NHC is also mentioning an area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas, associated with a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. This disturbance is moving slowly westwards towards Florida, and is under very high wind shear of 40 knots. No development is likely due to the high shear."

StormW will post later, so we'll see the second opinion shortly.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
40. hcubed
4:22 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
40 left.

That area of weather (94L), appears to have jumped across into the Pacific. But there is still a low area on this side, so will keep the watch out.

Well, 94L has been dropped, so any low that forms will probably get a new nyumber. Still a slight possibility of a low to form

Listening to one of the best forcasters on WU, we do have some concern:

tacoman 3:28 PM CDT on October 20, 2009
"no burned im on here to give people the right information and not scare the hell out of them for no reason...like i said before i would be looking closely at the nw gom on thurs for the remnants of rick who still has a strong middle level circulation...just giving you guys something to think about...tacoman"

Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
39. hcubed
11:41 AM GMT on October 20, 2009
41 left.

From the NHC:

200 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

And they've added a CV blob (a second yellow circle):

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Tropics still active...

And the latest:

800 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

And it looks like the #2 blob is 93L. Posted at 13.1N/36.3W.

Update (again): the Carrib blob is 94L, posted at 12.5N/81.7W.

That's only 1284 mi away. But it's not moving.

One more:

200 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
38. hcubed
4:59 PM GMT on October 19, 2009
42 left.

From Dr Masters:

"Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands, and it is possible that such a storm may stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days (as predicted by the GFS model). Alternatively, the storm could move steadily northwards after formation, affecting western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida, and the Bahamas."

Still watching.

Besides the ECMWF, GFS and CMC have chimed in. And last year, people were saying the CMC stood for "can't model crap" - so if it's jumped in, then that means a bit more.

The estimates of it's location put it at about 1000 miles out. Till it moves, can't put a time frame on it, other than make a comparison to Wilma.

Well, the NHC has gone yellow:

"1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
37. hcubed
6:34 PM GMT on October 18, 2009
43 left.

From Master's blog:

"In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned."

The recurve of a storm across SFLA could get close to us.

UPDATE: One of the models has been consistant with a storm flaring up in the WCarrib. The last run had dropped the intensity, but still keeps it headed for SFLA.

Will check on it in the morning (next model run is about 3AM).
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
36. hcubed
9:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2009
44 left.

Models are starting to show a storm forming in the carrib, somewhere around the 24th. The anniversary of Wilma, they say.

Nothing firm on track or intensity.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
35. hcubed
2:01 AM GMT on October 17, 2009
45 left. A month and a half.

Still need to read the main blog, to see what's the latest...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
34. hcubed
2:13 PM GMT on October 15, 2009
46 left.

From Jeff Masters:

"We had two major hurricanes in the Caribbean after October 15 last year, and I give a 60% chance that we'll get a named storm in the Caribbean before hurricane season ends on November 30. Hurricane season is not over--it's just in hibernation."

And from StormW:

"The MJO upward motion pulse has arrived over the GOMEX and Caribbean. The MJO forecast models call for upward motion to be present through months end, to possibly the first week of November. This will most likely be the last shot at the possibility of any increased activity.

Models do not show any development over the next 5-7 days, and Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Based on the recent run of the wind shear forecast maps, upper level winds should be more conducive the next 36 hours over the GOMEX, shifting to the southern GOMEX/Yucatan Channel area, then by 72 hours, down in the vicinity of Panama. Shear is expected to increase over the GOMEX and Caribbean areas at around 72 hours, then near Panama around day 5-6.

So, it's going to be a matter of whether or not we can see a low get to these areas as far as development."

So still a chance. Small chance, but still...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
33. hcubed
2:08 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
47 left.

No threats.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
32. hcubed
3:33 PM GMT on October 13, 2009
48 days left.

Not much here, but CA is being slammed with the remnants of a Pacific storm.

Still watching, the MJO should hit this week/next week.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
31. hcubed
4:30 AM GMT on October 13, 2009
Yeah, that 4 years in Germany (Wiesbaden) was as part of an electronics installation squadron. So the tour of Europe was in Germany, England and Greece.

Sometimes, the hardest part was understanding the language (and I'm talking about England). I knew I'd spent too much time there when I started to understand cricket...

And hearing them announce a nill-nill tie as a final score in football was weird, too.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
30. airman45
2:32 AM GMT on October 13, 2009
No kidding....see the world, and live all over. Spent 21 years in Europe (Germany, England, Italy and Portugal). Offutt is my first (and will be the last) U.S assignment before retiring. You can include Baghdad, Iraq for 6 months this year. That is enough to make anyone want to retire.
Member Since: April 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3509
29. hcubed
9:59 PM GMT on October 12, 2009
Quoting airman45:
Hi hcubed!

Good to meet you! 22 year AF veteran myself. Currently stationed at Offutt. May retire in the next year or two.


Born and raised in Omaha, been stationed at Offutt, Lindsey AS Germany, Dover, Galena Apt Alaska, and finally at Keesler.

Join the Air Force, see the world...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
27. hcubed
9:56 PM GMT on October 12, 2009
49 days left.

Still watching the ex-Henri, may still be coming.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
26. airman45
9:29 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
Hi hcubed!

Good to meet you! 22 year AF veteran myself. Currently stationed at Offutt. May retire in the next year or two.
Member Since: April 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3509
25. hcubed
5:22 PM GMT on October 11, 2009
50 days left.

It looks like ex-Henri's LLC MIGHT survive and pass into the Carrib below Cuba.

Earlier models had this exact forcast, but didn't take it any farther than that. So I think that within a couple of days, they're gonna have to start modeling Henri again.

More wait and see...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
24. hcubed
5:07 AM GMT on October 10, 2009
51 days left.

Still thinking that there COULD be one last gasp from the season.

The blob down south is getting rather big, but no low yet.

Just something to watch...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
23. hcubed
5:03 PM GMT on October 09, 2009
Quoting seawitch1261:
My co-workers just left for the Cruisn' the Coast. Love looking at all the cars.


Yes, fall is in the air, and the cars are on the coast.

Lovely 3-day weekend, chances to get out and look. Would cruise too, but the minivan just wouldn't fit in.

Maybe if I painted flames on the side of it...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
22. hcubed
5:01 PM GMT on October 09, 2009
52 days left.

No major threats, either from Henri or 92L.

Must watch them, but might not re-form.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
21. seawitch1261
8:04 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
My co-workers just left for the Cruisn' the Coast. Love looking at all the cars.
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 127 Comments: 422
20. hcubed
7:24 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Greetings. I live in D'Iberville, work on the base.

Been here since '85...
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
19. seawitch1261
1:22 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Just dropping by to say hi from D'Iberville.
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 127 Comments: 422
18. hcubed
1:03 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
53 days left.

500 AM (400 AM CDT) AST THU OCT 08 2009

...HENRI EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HENRI IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

So let's see where that puts it:

About 5.11 days away. The forcast track still shows the start of the curve, taking it below Cuba.

Worst path would be to drop below Cuba, get into the hot water, and then cut the gap.

Henri still getting noticed, however...

1100 AM AST (1000 AM CDT) THU OCT 08 2009

...HENRI WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRI IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

The models for Henri (soon to be ex-Henri), put it into SFLA, and then the Gulf.

Not out of the woods yet.

And also, invest 92L has been named. This is the one that was Henri's neighbor. Forcasts put it in CA.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
17. hcubed
12:19 PM GMT on October 07, 2009
54 days left.

500 AM AST (200AM CDT) WED OCT 07 2009

...HENRI STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...740 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HENRI AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT...AND HENRI COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.

The 5 day cone shows the start of the SW turn the models have suggested. NHC still not forecasting a hurricsne.

Now 2199 mi away. About 6.54 days away.

Also, a yellow circle has been placed around a wave to the SE of Henri. Might develop.

Latest blog from the Dr, with a comment worth re-posting:

"Yes, we used up our quota of two October named storms more quickly than I expected! There should be at least one more storm this season, perhaps two. Jeff Masters"

Those who said the season was over after only six storms was insane.

And from the NHC:

1100 AM AST (800 AM CDT) WED OCT 07 2009

...HENRI WEAKENING...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES...605 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HENRI IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.

If it survives, it's 2098 mi away, about 5.83 days out.

Models are split. Most show a dip down to below Cuba, and some show it being gone in about 3 days. If the swirl remains, could regenerate - fast. Will have to really keep an eye on it. Coming up to the 5-day point.

The fix is in:

500 PM AST (4 PM CDT) WED OCT 07 2009

...HENRI CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND HENRI COULD DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

Will check out distance later.

1100 PM AST (1000 PM CDT) WED OCT 07 2009

...HENRI WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Models still show the circulation getting back into the carrib.

Still watching.
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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).