Slight break in activity. Everybody take a breath...

By: hcubed , 8:16 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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"...For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm..."

But since the season really reaches it's peak on the 10th, and threats of storms in the GOM and Gaston's possible regeneration are looming on the horizon, it's time to take stock of where you are.

And where you want to be.

The TV stations are replaying the aftermath of Katrina, and those who stayed behind.

25 years ago, Elena hit near the peak of the season (well, 8 days away). So there is still a chance that we'll be hit.

The longer we go without a storm, the more we want to think the season is over. But several times there has been a hurricane hitting the US during November.

So don't lose sight of possible trouble.

BE PREPARED.

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11. hcubed
11:40 AM GMT on September 07, 2010
Today with ex-Gaston:

"...530 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2010

SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF GASTON NEAR 17N60W 1010 MB WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN PASSING S OF PUERTO RICO WED... S OF HISPANIOLA WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AND S OF JAMAICA FRI INTO SAT. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH N OF 18N ALONG 75W WILL MOVE SLOWLY W REACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT..."

Warm waters, passing south of the major islands. Was there, weakened, and may re-generate? Sounds a lot like Katrina.

As long as there's a traceable low, will watch.

But at 17N, 60W, it's through the chain of islands.

It looks like it will track BELOW Puerto Rico, and is still moving west.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
10. hcubed
1:46 AM GMT on September 07, 2010
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

840 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...HERMINE MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH.

SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB

Another one down. 6th storm, not a hurricane.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
9. hcubed
1:38 AM GMT on September 07, 2010
"...Forecast for Gaston

There is little change to the forecast for Gaston's remains. Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near its core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast..."
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
8. hcubed
8:21 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Gaston, however, is still trying.

It's within the 55W point, almost at the islands
(they're at the 61-62 degree point), and is fixin' to get the TS status back.

Tracks still have it maintaining a low track, still a threat for the gulf.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
7. hcubed
7:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
"...Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast at 13 mph. Hermine was a tropical depression twelve hours ago, got its name just six hours ago, but already is a threat to intensify into a hurricane by tonight..."

And, so far, not heading our way.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
6. hcubed
9:19 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2

0900 UTC MON SEP 06 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 95.0W AT 06/0900Z

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.

Last distance: 742.

This distance: 719.

Closer by 23 miles
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
5. hcubed
7:09 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
Looks like we have Hermine:

AL, 10, 2010090606, , BEST, 0, 211N, 948W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, L

That location of 21.1N, 94.8W puts it 742 miles away.

Forecast to go to the NW. Will see what next reports bring.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
4. hcubed
7:00 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
And as for TD10:

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A

100 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 95.0W
ABOUT 270 MI SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL... AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

Still in the gulf. Still to the SOUTH and WEST of us. Need to watch.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
3. hcubed
5:29 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
The models have Gaston going through BOTH of the Hebert Boxes, anywhere from a CAT 1-4.

Although the Hebert boxes are an indication of PAST performance, they're also a reason to pay attention to FUTURE movement.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
2. hcubed
2:48 AM GMT on September 06, 2010
The garbage in the GOM just became TD10.

invest_RENUMBER_al902010_al102010.ren

Next in line is Hermine.

It appears, from the cone at NHC, that Mexico is threatened by this one.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
1. hcubed
9:21 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
So about ex-future-Gaston (however you want to look at it):

05/1745 UTC 16.8N 51.1W T1.5/1.5 GASTON

Waiting for a location plot past 55W before "tracking" begins.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).

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