Sandy and Tony

By: hcubed , 5:04 AM GMT on October 23, 2012

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 222101
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BAND OF SURFACE WINDS NEAR 35 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...AND THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...HOWEVER...AS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE STORM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE FIELD...BUT THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.

HOWEVER...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SOON. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST. THIS IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.6N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.4N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 18.2N 77.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 27.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


While later, we've seen this:

TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOW BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 35 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM TONY.

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2. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:25 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
hcubed has created a new entry.
1. hcubed
11:55 AM GMT on October 24, 2012
Well, here's more:

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND FEATURE EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. USING A BLEND OF SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CYCLONE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...SANDY IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF SANDY WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RE-INTENSIFICATION. AROUND DAY 5...THE GFS OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT SANDY WILL BE DERIVING ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES...AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL BY THAT TIME.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...OR ABOUT 020/4. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY GRADUALLY WEAKENS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN AROUND 2-3 DAYS...THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF SANDY. THIS IS SHOWN MOST PROMINENTLY IN THE 0600 UTC GFS RUN...WHICH HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.

So it appears that Florida may feel some of the winds, but not get a direct hit.

The record stands - so far.

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).