Article in Daily Mail uses Met Office data to make a point.

By: hcubed , 11:07 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

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That point is that, it appears to show that the world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago.

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.

Their link: Daily Mail

Their main chart:



Of course, the phrase "triggered debate among climate scientists" might be an understatement.

Their reply says "...Over the last 140 years global surface temperatures have risen by about 0.8ºC. However, within this record there have been several periods lasting a decade or more during which temperatures have risen very slowly or cooled. The current period of reduced warming is not unprecedented and 15 year long periods are not unusual..."

While a NOAA report a few years ago in 2008 says that "...Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade or less in the simulations, due to the model’s internal climate variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate..."

I like that last sentence: "...suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration [15 yr or more] is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate..."

So in 2008 (4 years ago), NOAA said we needed 15 years or more to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate. Well, we're there.

So what do we believe - model simulations or actual, observed, measured values? Met Office or NOAA?

Let the debate among climate scientists begin.

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).