Is the number one metric actually worth anything, part 2

By: hcubed , 3:43 AM GMT on February 16, 2012

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I'll start this with a comment I received on the last post:

"...I'm just curious, seeing that it's global warming, why would you just look at US data and not include a global average?..."

The quick answer is simple: I based that entry on Dr. Masters recent posting stating that, in the U.S., January 2012 was the 4th warmest ever (well, since records began).

Made me wonder where the rest of the years fell.

So what else does the January data say?

Well, I looked at the entire record of Januaries – and traced how the “number one” changed through time.

The “warmists” will see the count, and say “See – the fact that, over the years, the value of the number one has increased shows Global Warming”. Of course, they’ve changed it to Climate Change, but that’s a different story.

There were seven changes in January number ones over the record.

So let’s flip it over. Let’s see if the COLDEST value has changed. If the theory is right, a constantly warming world would either show fewer or no changes in the COLDEST values.

Here’s the same list, flipped:
1 1979 22.6
2 1977 23.7
3 1930 24.3
4 1940 24.5
5 1918 24.6
6 1963 25.1
7 1912 25.5
8 1937 25.6
9 1978 26.4
10 1982 26.6
11 1985 26.8
12 1924 27.0
13 1949 27.0
14 1929 27.1
15 1966 27.1
16 1895 27.5
17 1922 27.6
18 1962 27.6
19 1905 27.8
20 1970 27.8
21 1957 27.9
22 1936 28.1
23 1904 28.3
24 1988 28.3
25 1948 28.7
26 1897 28.8
27 1916 28.9
28 1917 29.1
29 1915 29.2
30 1984 29.3
31 1968 29.5
32 1925 29.8
33 1969 29.8
34 1991 29.8
35 1920 29.9
36 1994 29.9
37 2011 29.9
38 1971 30.0
39 1943 30.2
40 1959 30.2
41 1960 30.2
42 1955 30.3
43 1973 30.3
44 1996 30.3
45 1961 30.4
46 1899 30.5
47 1910 30.5
48 1972 30.5
49 1976 30.5
50 1997 30.5
51 1942 30.6
52 2004 30.6
53 1902 30.8
54 1993 30.8
55 2008 30.8
56 2010 30.9
57 1926 31.1
58 1951 31.1
59 1913 31.2
60 1945 31.2
61 2009 31.2
62 1950 31.3
63 1898 31.4
64 1907 31.5
65 1954 31.6
66 1974 31.6
67 1903 31.7
68 1956 31.7
69 1980 31.7
70 2007 31.7
71 2001 31.8
72 1987 32.0
73 1935 32.2
74 1946 32.2
75 1896 32.3
76 1927 32.3
77 1932 32.3
78 1964 32.3
79 1965 32.4
80 1901 32.5
81 1958 32.5
82 1919 32.6
83 1947 32.6
84 1928 32.7
85 1952 32.8
86 1938 32.9
87 1944 32.9
88 1909 33.0
89 1975 33.0
90 1981 33.0
91 1941 33.1
92 1908 33.2
93 2003 33.2
94 1911 33.5
95 1983 33.6
96 2005 33.6
97 1906 33.7
98 1967 33.7
99 1995 33.7
100 1931 33.8
101 1992 34.1
102 2000 34.2
103 1989 34.4
104 1999 34.4
105 1939 34.8
106 1900 34.9
107 1921 35.1
108 1933 35.1
109 1986 35.2
110 2002 35.2
111 1914 35.3
112 1923 35.3
113 1998 35.6
114 1934 35.9
115 2012 36.3
116 1953 37.2
117 1990 37.2
118 2006 39.7

The current “leader” (the coldest January since the record started) is 1979, coming in at a bone-chilling 22.6 degrees.

The first “number one” was determined the same way – the lowest temp after the first decade (1895-1904). Here, the first number one coldest would have been 1895, with 27.5 degrees.

So, in order, our next “winner” appeared in 1912, taking the “record” down to 25.5 – a drop of 2 degrees.

From there, we next saw a decrease during 1918. The new record of 24.6 dropped the low record by 0.9 degrees.

And then came 1930, with its record of 24.3 degrees. Only a drop of 0.3 degrees this time.

It took a few years since a new “leader” appeared – 1977. Its record of 23.7 dropped the low by another 0.6 degrees.

After that, we see the latest leader, 1979.

Six lead changes, and a drop of 4.9 degrees in lows.

Two of them occurring since the latest "warming point", the mid seventies.

Compared to the high number ones (there were seven), and the variation in highs (4.8 degrees), you could say they pretty much even each other out.

Argue it how you want.

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).

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