So what's next?

By: hcubed , 5:52 PM GMT on January 09, 2012

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It's always entertaining to see the doom and gloom forecasts, jusy to see how much worse it's gonna get.

So, lets see what's forecast in the next few years (taken from here: 2015 forecast)

We'll look at each one, just to see what the "consensus" thinks.

1st: Temperatures and Heat Waves

"...2010 – 2019. Stanford computer models project a dramatic spike in extreme seasonal temperatures during the period 2010 - 2019. “The Stanford team also forecast a dramatic spike in extreme seasonal temperatures during the current decade [2010 – 2019]. Temperatures equaling the hottest season on record from 1951 to 1999 could occur four times between now [2010] and 2019 over much of the U.S., according to the researchers. The 2020s and 2030s could be even hotter, particularly in the American West.” (Mark Shwartz, communications manager, Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, “Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds,” Stanford Report, July 8, 2010 citing findings in Diffenbaugh, N., and M. Ashfaq. Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., (in press) DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043888, August 6, 2010)..."

So, according to this, "...Temperatures equaling the hottest season on record from 1951 to 1999 could occur four times between now [2010] and 2019 over much of the U.S., according to the researchers..."

Leaves out the hot times from the 30's. And, appears to have a "hole" there - what happened between their end-of-reference period (1999) and the beginning of the period chosen (2010).

Gonna have to look at this, and we'll use GISS for the comparison.

Using their Combined Land-Surface Air and Sea-Surface Water Temperature Anomalies listing (found here: Link), we see that the warmest year in their chosen period (51-99) was the 1998 values (at 58C, taken off the J-D listing).

Throuought the "gap" (2000-2009), only one year matched that (2007). It didn't EXCEED it. Does fit their criteria. One out of 10.

So let's see how the 2010-2019 peroid is doing so far. Too bad, only one year (2010), and it does exceed it. Good start for them. 2011's not done yet on their records.

They're expecting 4/10, and they've got 1/10. Three out of the next 9 years have to equal or exceed 1998 for this "doom and gloom" scenario to come true.

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).

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