Colin gone (again) - but there's still a lot of posibilities...

By: hcubed , 12:46 PM GMT on August 09, 2010

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Colin downgraded again, and two other areas of interest.

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7. hcubed
4:21 PM GMT on August 10, 2010
Updated... 3 Models now have 94L as a Cat 1 at landfall.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
6. hcubed
1:51 AM GMT on August 10, 2010
AL, 94, 2010081000, , BEST, 0, 257N, 827W, 25, 1010, LO

Pressure down 1 mb, winds up 5 knots

94L continues to move southwest.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
5. hcubed
1:32 AM GMT on August 10, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

800 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2010

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
4. hcubed
6:01 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

200 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2010

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED...ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
3. hcubed
2:00 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Model paths still showing same track, and the intensity forecasts show minimal TS intensity.

But it still has to go across the insanely hot GOM.

Still watching.

Now at 26.2N 82.6W. Puts it IN the GOM, just north of Key West.

That puts mileage at 462mi away.

Last showing at a WSW heading at 4mph.

Right now, there's a train of clouds pointing at us, and the forecast shows LA by Thursday afternoon.

Puts us on the dirty side.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
2. hcubed
12:53 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
It's this one (94L) that poses the biggest threat at this time.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Models say a west movement, across FL, into the GOM, and then into us.

Will check later on intensity forecasts.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
1. hcubed
12:49 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

200 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2010

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN IS AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGENERATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).