hcubed's WunderBlog

East Coast is really getting prepared

By: hcubed, 8:41 PM GMT on October 28, 2012

...and they're asking everyone to please take this seriously.

000
NOUS41 KPHI 281841
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010- 012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-291200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

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Sandy/Frankenstorm gearing up (with added PSA)

By: hcubed, 2:13 AM GMT on October 27, 2012

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...POTENTIAL HISTORIC STORM FOR THE AREA...

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN TAKE A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT APPEARS THIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STORM, POSSIBLY OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT STORM TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE STORM THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN /POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10 INCHES/ WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE MAJOR TO EVEN RECORD FLOODING. RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. AS WATER IS PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST, COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE AND THIS COULD BE TO MAJOR TO PERHAPS EVEN RECORD LEVELS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE EXTENT OF THE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LARGE AND RECORD SETTING STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE WORST OF THE RAIN AND WIND LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THERE IS STILL TIME TO PREPARE.

***And, to be sure that this posting meets the WeatherUnderground theme of CAGW, we get this public service announcement:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 26, 2012
CONTACT: Blair FitzGibbon : 202-503-6141 : blair@fitzgibbonmedia.com
Statement by Brad Johnson, campaign manager of Forecast the Facts and ClimateSilence.org:

“If the candidates won’t listen to the voters demanding they break their climate silence, maybe they will listen to Mother Nature’s October Surprise. We know the candidates will be asked about Hurricane Sandy, and will express their sympathy with those affected. They will rightly applaud the first responders, the compassion of neighbors, and the strength and resolve of the American people. But what their role as national leaders demands that they also do is explain that Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm, a monster created by man tampering with nature with oil, coal, and gas pollution.”

And we also need to remember that the last time a Major hurricane (Cat 3 or greater) hit the Mainland US was in October of 2007 (Wilma). Now THAT was a real "October surprise".

So if Brad Johnson thinks that the "frankenstorm" was caused by man tampering with nature with oil, coal, and gas pollution, then so is the unprecedented five year break from Nature's wrath.

Updated: 7:39 AM GMT on October 27, 2012

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Now starring HURRICANE Sandy (and TS Tony)

By: hcubed, 4:25 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED A PEAK 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT...AND BLENDING THAT WITH THE PEAK SFMR WINDS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO FALLEN TO 973 MB BASED ON DATA FROM THE PLANE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES NEAR OR OVER EASTERN JAMAICA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ADDITIONAL LAND INTERACTION WITH EASTERN CUBA AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAKE THE INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION VIA LATENT HEAT RELEASE...BUT THIS COULD BE COMPENSATED FOR BY BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND...SHOWING SANDY BECOMING A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/11. THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS SANDY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH SANDY INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MORE INTERACTION AND A TRACK FARTHER WEST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS SANDY TURNING EAST AND MISSING THE TROUGH. OVERALL MORE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS TREND...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.

Looks like Fla will be getting more than planned. But still no Major forecasted.

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Sandy and Tony

By: hcubed, 5:04 AM GMT on October 23, 2012

000
WTNT43 KNHC 222101
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BAND OF SURFACE WINDS NEAR 35 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...AND THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...HOWEVER...AS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE STORM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE FIELD...BUT THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.

HOWEVER...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SOON. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST. THIS IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.6N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.4N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 18.2N 77.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 27.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


While later, we've seen this:

TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOW BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 35 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM TONY.

Updated: 12:09 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

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Article in Daily Mail uses Met Office data to make a point.

By: hcubed, 11:07 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

That point is that, it appears to show that the world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago.

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.

Their link: Daily Mail

Their main chart:



Of course, the phrase "triggered debate among climate scientists" might be an understatement.

Their reply says "...Over the last 140 years global surface temperatures have risen by about 0.8ºC. However, within this record there have been several periods lasting a decade or more during which temperatures have risen very slowly or cooled. The current period of reduced warming is not unprecedented and 15 year long periods are not unusual..."

While a NOAA report a few years ago in 2008 says that "...Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade or less in the simulations, due to the model’s internal climate variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate..."

I like that last sentence: "...suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration [15 yr or more] is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate..."

So in 2008 (4 years ago), NOAA said we needed 15 years or more to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate. Well, we're there.

So what do we believe - model simulations or actual, observed, measured values? Met Office or NOAA?

Let the debate among climate scientists begin.

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Evil oil or Palm oil: which is worse?

By: hcubed, 11:58 PM GMT on October 08, 2012

Well, according to a study released by Stanford, their researchers show oil palm plantations are clearing carbon-rich tropical forests in Borneo.

Source here: Link

"...Expanding production of palm oil, a common ingredient in processed foods, soaps and personal care products, is driving rainforest destruction and massive carbon dioxide emissions, according to a new study led by researchers at Stanford and Yale universities.

The study, published online Oct. 7 in the journal Nature Climate Change, shows that deforestation for the development of oil palm plantations in Indonesian Borneo is becoming a globally significant source of carbon dioxide emissions.

Plantation expansion is projected to contribute more than 558 million metric tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere in 2020 – an amount greater than all of Canada’s current fossil fuel emissions..."

*** Wow - land use (clearing) is expected to create more CO2 than ALL of Canada's current use of "evil" oil.

"...Indonesia is the leading producer of palm and palm kernel oil, which together account for more than 30 percent of the world’s vegetable oil use, and which can be used for biodiesel. Most of Indonesia’s oil palm plantation expansion is occurring on the island of Borneo, also known as Kalimantan, which occupies a land area nearly the size California and Florida combined. Plantation leases, covering 32 percent of Kalimantan’s lowlands outside of protected areas, represent a major land bank that is slated for development over the next decade, according to the study.

In 2010 alone, land-clearing for oil palm plantations in Kalimantan emitted more than 140 million metric tons of carbon dioxide – an amount equivalent to annual emissions from about 28 million vehicles..."

*** Now, it's true that these land-clearing operations could rightly be put in the Anthropogenic category, but look at that line from another side. If 28 million vehicles were suddenly taken off the roads, there would still be 140 million metric tons of carbon dioxide being placed in the air.

28 million vehicles.

Some perspective is needed, then.

From Wiki: "...According to cumulative data by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) the number of motor vehicles has also increased steadily since 1960, only stagnating once in 1997 and declining from 1990 to 1991. Otherwise the number of motor vehicles has been rising by an estimated 3.69 million each year since 1960 with the largest annual growth between 1998 and 1999 as well as between 2000 and 2001 when the number of motor vehicles in the United States increased by eight million..."

Using their average of 3.69 million new vehicles per year, that means we'd have to get rid of the same number of new vehicles the US has seen (on average) over a 7 1/2 year period.

Or, to see it another way: in 2007, California alone had 19,835,554 total automobiles (add all vehicles, and you were up to 33,182,058 vehicles).

So, again, which is more evil, big oil or big PALM oil?

Updated: 12:51 AM GMT on October 09, 2012

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).