hcubed's WunderBlog

New paper has surprising results

By: hcubed, 8:54 PM GMT on August 29, 2012

A new paper published in Nature Geoscience finds “From about 50,000 to 11,000 years ago, the central Arctic Basin from 1,000 to 2,500 meters deep was … 1–2°C warmer than modern Arctic Intermediate Water.” This finding is particularly surprising because it occurred during the last major ice age.

Of course, since ice is an insulator, maybe the thicker ice kept those temperatures warmer.

Here’s the paper:

Deep Arctic Ocean warming during the last glacial cycle


Nature Geoscience


T. M. Cronin, G. S. Dwyer, J. Farmer, H. A. Bauch, R. F. Spielhagen, M. Jakobsson, J. Nilsson, W. M. Briggs Jr & A. Stepanova

Nature Geoscience (2012) doi:10.1038/ngeo1557

Abstract:

"...In the Arctic Ocean, the cold and relatively fresh water beneath the sea ice is separated from the underlying warmer and saltier Atlantic Layer by a halocline. Ongoing sea ice loss and warming in the Arctic Ocean have demonstrated the instability of the halocline, with implications for further sea ice loss. The stability of the halocline through past climate variations is unclear.

Here we estimate intermediate water temperatures over the past 50,000 years from the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca values of ostracods from 31 Arctic sediment cores. From about 50 to 11 [thousand years] ago, the central Arctic Basin was occupied by a water mass we call Glacial Arctic Intermediate Water. This water mass was 1–2°C warmer than modern Arctic Intermediate Water, with temperatures peaking during or just before millennial-scale Heinrich cold events and the Younger Dryas cold interval.

We use numerical modelling to show that the intermediate depth warming could result from the expected decrease in the flux of fresh water to the Arctic Ocean during glacial conditions, which would cause the halocline to deepen and push the warm Atlantic Layer into intermediate depths. Although not modelled, the reduced formation of cold, deep waters due to the exposure of the Arctic continental shelf could also contribute to the intermediate depth warming..."

*** Seems there may be other NATURAL drivers to the earth's climate, besides the CO2's 0.00039449 (394.49 parts per MILLION) of the atmosphere.

The surprising part is that the abstract doesn't say what the earth's CO2 level was 50,000 to 11,000 years ago, but it's a pretty good guess that whatever level it was, it wasn't Anthropogenic in nature.

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Numerous records set, Global Warming suspected.

By: hcubed, 12:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

Unfortunately, there were only 4 new high records (well, three new and one tie)

Here are the 4 record highs:

OR Prineville Sat, 18 Aug 2012 102 102 in 1982
OR Ruch Sat, 18 Aug 2012 102 101 in 1941
TX Port Isabel Sat, 18 Aug 2012 96 95 in 1913
WA Longmire Rainier Nps Sat, 18 Aug 2012 95 92 in 1966

But on the other side there were 127 new low records set (7 of them from a time in the late 1800's)

Once again, to be fair, there were 96 new and 31 ties - if the other side can use ties to boost their "record count" of highs, they have to accept ties as record lows.

Still, that's a whopping 127:4 ratio of COLD to WARM - which, if you believe in the CAGW theory, is absolutely unprecedented.

Here’s a list of the 127 record lows:

AK Kodiak Ap Sat, 18 Aug 2012 41 42 in 1959
AR Harrison Boone Co Ap Sat, 18 Aug 2012 57 57 in 1982
AR Paragould, 1 miles S of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 62 63 in 1982
CO Holyoke Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 50 in 1976
HI Opihihale No 2 24.1 Sat, 18 Aug 2012 59 60 in 1984
IA Allerton Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 56 in 1975
IA Atlantic, 1 miles NE of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 40 41 in 1871
IA Audubon Sat, 18 Aug 2012 42 44 in 1871
IA Bedford Sat, 18 Aug 2012 49 50 in 1955
IA Belle Plaine Sat, 18 Aug 2012 39 45 in 1976
IA Bloomfield, 1 miles WNW of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 48 48 in 1937
IA Burlington, 2 miles S of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 49 49 in 1951
IA Clarinda Sat, 18 Aug 2012 42 44 in 1917
IA Decorah Sat, 18 Aug 2012 43 43 in 1937
IA Eldora Sat, 18 Aug 2012 46 46 in 1951
IA Fairfield Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 48 in 1917
IA Grinnell, 3 miles SW of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 42 44 in 1955
IA Guthrie Ctr Sat, 18 Aug 2012 41 44 in 1955
IA Harlan, 1 miles N of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 43 46 in 1917
IA Hawarden Sat, 18 Aug 2012 43 44 in 1976
IA Iowa City Sat, 18 Aug 2012 46 48 in 1937
IA Keosauqua Sat, 18 Aug 2012 45 48 in 1955
IA Leon, 6 miles ESE of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 42 43 in 1955
IA Logan Sat, 18 Aug 2012 45 46 in 1917
IA Mapleton No.2 Sat, 18 Aug 2012 42 43 in 1917
IA Mt Ayr Sat, 18 Aug 2012 44 45 in 1871
IA Ottumwa Industrial Ap Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 50 in 1937
IA Rathbun Dam Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 52 in 1955
IA Sheldon Sat, 18 Aug 2012 39 41 in 1976
IA Sidney Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 50 in 1924
IA Washington Sat, 18 Aug 2012 46 47 in 1937
IA Waterloo Municipal Ap Sat, 18 Aug 2012 43 43 in 1951
IA Williamsburg, 3 miles SE of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 44 45 in 1927
IA Winterset, 1 miles N of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 41 45 in 1955
IL Cairo, 3 miles N of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 56 56 in 1978
IL Chicago Botanic Garden Sat, 18 Aug 2012 52 52 in 1976
IL Griggsville Sat, 18 Aug 2012 49 49 in 1951
IL Jerseyville, 2 miles SW of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 49 52 in 1955
IL Kaskaskia Rvr Nav Lock Sat, 18 Aug 2012 51 53 in 1983
IL Kewanee, 1 miles E of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 47 in 1937
IL La Harpe Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 47 in 1951
IL Morrisonville Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 52 in 1966
IL Mt Vernon, 3 miles NE of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 51 52 in 1871
IL Normal, 4 miles NE of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 49 49 in 1966
IL Quincy Rgnl Ap Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 53 in 1937
IL Rochelle Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 48 in 1966
IL Springfield Lincoln Ap Sat, 18 Aug 2012 49 49 in 1937
IL White Hall, 1 miles E of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 49 51 in 1917
IN Indianapolis Se Side Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 50 in 1937
IN Perrysville, 4 miles WNW of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 50 in 1966
KS Atwood Sat, 18 Aug 2012 48 49 in 1920
KS Clay Ctr Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 50 in 1917
KS Clinton Lake Sat, 18 Aug 2012 52 55 in 1955
KS Concordia Asos Sat, 18 Aug 2012 52 55 in 1974
KS Garnett, 1 miles E of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 56 in 1955
KS Iola, 1 miles W of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 55 in 1983
KS Ness City Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 52 in 1955
KS Oakley, 4 miles W of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 52 in 1934
KS Oberlin Sat, 18 Aug 2012 45 50 in 1893
KS Pomona Lake Sat, 18 Aug 2012 56 56 in 1966
KS Smith Ctr Sat, 18 Aug 2012 52 52 in 1934
KS Topeka Asos Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 53 in 1963
KS Tuttle Creek Lake Sat, 18 Aug 2012 51 53 in 1955
KY Paducah Barkley Ap Sat, 18 Aug 2012 55 56 in 1982
KY Providence Sat, 18 Aug 2012 56 57 in 1980
MI Big Rapids Wtr Wks Sat, 18 Aug 2012 26 37 in 1917
MI Howell Wwtp Sat, 18 Aug 2012 43 45 in 1981
MN Browns Valley Sat, 18 Aug 2012 41 42 in 1976
MN Forest Lake, 5 miles NE of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 45 46 in 1951
MN Montevideo, 1 miles SW of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 44 44 in 1951
MO Amity, 4 miles NE of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 48 50 in 1955
MO Buffalo, 2 miles N of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 52 in 1906
MO Butler, 4 miles W of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 52 56 in 1982
MO Canton L Sat, 18 Aug 2012 49 52 in 1951
MO Cape Girardeau Faa Ap Sat, 18 Aug 2012 49 52 in 1982
MO Carrollton Sat, 18 Aug 2012 53 55 in 1955
MO Clinton Sat, 18 Aug 2012 46 48 in 1966
MO Columbia Rgnl Ap Sat, 18 Aug 2012 53 55 in 1966
MO Farmington Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 51 in 1950
MO Fulton Sat, 18 Aug 2012 48 52 in 1917
MO Hamilton, 2 miles W of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 51 in 1982
MO Kirksville Sat, 18 Aug 2012 48 49 in 1955
MO Maryville, 2 miles E of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 46 49 in 1955
MO Memphis Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 49 in 1955
MO Moberly Sat, 18 Aug 2012 51 51 in 1917
MO Monroe City Sat, 18 Aug 2012 48 55 in 1951
MO New Franklin, 1 miles W of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 53 in 1966
MO Perryville Wtp Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 52 in 1950
MO Princeton Sat, 18 Aug 2012 45 50 in 1871
MO Shelbina Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 48 in 1917
MO Spickard, 7 miles W of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 46 49 in 1955
MO St Joseph Rosecrans Mem Sat, 18 Aug 2012 43 50 in 1955
MO Unionville Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 50 in 1963
MO Vichy Rolla National Ap Sat, 18 Aug 2012 51 56 in 1982
MO Wappapello Dam Sat, 18 Aug 2012 56 57 in 1950
MO Warrenton, 1 miles N of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 52 in 1966
MT Mizpah, 4 miles NNW of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 37 38 in 1959
NE Auburn, 5 miles ESE of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 42 48 in 1917
NE Benkelman Sat, 18 Aug 2012 51 51 in 1934
NE Chambers Sat, 18 Aug 2012 42 44 in 1976
NE Crete Sat, 18 Aug 2012 51 51 in 1917
NE Culbertson Sat, 18 Aug 2012 45 49 in 1893
NE David City Sat, 18 Aug 2012 49 52 in 1959
NE Greeley Sat, 18 Aug 2012 39 46 in 1959
NE Hartington Sat, 18 Aug 2012 45 45 in 1907
NE Hayes Center, 1 miles NW of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 48 in 1901
NE Hebron Sat, 18 Aug 2012 46 51 in 1917
NE Imperial Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 49 in 1918
NE Lincoln Ap Sat, 18 Aug 2012 45 49 in 1917
NE Madrid Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 47 in 1884
NE Mc Cook Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 50 in 1903
NE Osceola Sat, 18 Aug 2012 46 48 in 1959
NE Ravenna Sat, 18 Aug 2012 42 47 in 1924
NE Seward Sat, 18 Aug 2012 46 48 in 1917
NE Springview Sat, 18 Aug 2012 39 45 in 1971
NE Superior, 4 miles E of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 47 52 in 1955
NE Syracuse Sat, 18 Aug 2012 45 45 in 1917
NE Tecumseh, 1 miles S of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 43 44 in 1917
NE Tekamah Sat, 18 Aug 2012 45 47 in 1917
NE Trenton Dam Sat, 18 Aug 2012 50 50 in 1924
NE Wakefield Sat, 18 Aug 2012 43 45 in 1976
NV Ruth Sat, 18 Aug 2012 32 33 in 1942
SD Madison, 2 miles SE of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 40 40 in 1976
SD Pickstown Sat, 18 Aug 2012 46 48 in 1961
SD Yankton, 2 miles E of Sat, 18 Aug 2012 44 44 in 1976
TN Pulaski Wwtp Sat, 18 Aug 2012 44 55 in 1950
TX Bravo Sat, 18 Aug 2012 42 55 in 1982

Observe some of those dates. Quite a few of them happened in one decade - the 1950's.

Out of the 127 records, it looks like that 35 were from that era, with 1955 getting 20 of them.

As a matter of fact, the period from 1951-1980 accounted for more than half of those records.

Why did I single out the period from 1951-1980? That's Hansen's choice as the averaging period for GIStemp, his idea of that time being the "normal" for the globe, and becoming the "zero" for his chart.

Just sayin'...

PS, as an update:

It's worse than we thought.

When you look at the past 2 days (18th and 19th), the ratio expands to 9/196 (hot/cold) - and if you look at the entire week from 13-19 Aug, the values are 210 hot to 445 cold; a little over a 2:1 ratio of low records over hot records.

They'll just say it's weather, and not a sure sign of CAGW.

Reverse it, though - say we had a 2:1 ratio of hot records over cold records in a one week period, and ther'd be cries if impending DOOM - and announced as front page stories from coast-to-coast.

Updated: 8:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).

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