hcubed's WunderBlog

Another record being established
Posted by: hcubed, 7:47 PM GMT on July 28, 2012 +0
I suppose this will make the warmists and the counters leap with joy: A record-high 57 coal-fired generators in the US will shut down in 2012.

At the same time, China will be partnering with Romania to build a single coal plant in Bralia.

57 out, one replacement. Not bad - so far.

Source for the 57 closures: 57 closures

Source for the single replacement in Romania: Single replacement

It's deeper than that, though:

"...Facing declining demand for electricity and stiff federal environmental regulations, coal plant operators are planning to retire 175 coal-fired generators, or 8.5 percent of the total coal-fired capacity in the United States, according to an analysis by the Energy Information Administration (EIA)..."

*** See that bolded part? Stiff federal environmental regulations. 175 coal fired plants.

How much electrical energy is that? According to the source:

"...A record-high 57 generators will shut down in 2012, representing 9 gigawatts of electrical capacity, according to EIA. In 2015, nearly 10 gigawatts of capacity from 61 coal-fired generators will be retired..."

So those 118 plants listed there take out a total of 19GW of power.

The Chinese/Romanian replacement? Try 500MW.

I do wonder what stiff federal environmental regulations they'll follow in Romania.

But the story goes on.

Another source states how busy the Chinese are at home:

BEIJING — China's Shenhua Group will build the largest coal-fired power station in Asia over the next five years, the official Xinhua news agency said Tuesday, as the country struggles to meet its energy needs.

China's biggest coal company and officials in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region signed a deal for the 8-gigawatt thermal plant on Monday, according to Xinhua and the local government's website..."

Source here: Chinese plant

So we knock out a total of 175 plants with a power output of somewhere around 19GW, and they build a SINGLE plant that puts out 8GW.

But wait, there's more:

"...While many of those coal plants are old and relatively inefficient, the scope of this new planned shutdown is unprecedented.

“The coal-fired capacity expected to be retired over the next five years is more than four times greater than retirements performed during the preceding five-year period,” EIA noted in the analysis.

The generators that will be retired between 2012 and 2016 are “approximately 12% more efficient than the group of units, on average, that retired during 2009-2011,” according to the EIA..."

*** Key phrase - unprecedented.

But read that again - on average, the plants to be shut down are 12% MORE efficient than those older plants they've retired.

Seems efficiency wasn't considered - we're just replacing plants fueled with those "coal trains of death".

What else besides stiff environmental regulations could be driving the retirement of more efficient power plants?

Well, there's this:

"...The low price of natural gas resulting from the shale boom has led to reduced coal consumption and made the shutdowns necessary, experts say..."

Natural gas. The country that is number 6 in world proven reserves (5,977,000 million cu m) beats China's number 15 (2,265,000 million cu m).

Bottom line is still the gov't, though.

"...But federal and state regulations have also damaged the industry and contributed to plant closures.

“The cost of compliance with anticipated and existing Federal environmental regulations such as the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) is a factor,” the EIA noted. “Particularly in the case of older, smaller units that are not used heavily, owners may conclude it is more cost efficient to retire plants rather than make additional investments.”

Most of the coal-fired generator retirements will occur in the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio River Valley and the Southeast..."

*** I'm going to Google the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS), and see how the Chinese plants are going to abide by those.

Oh, wait - they don't have to. Never mind.
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More proof of CAGW - records being set.
Posted by: hcubed, 5:21 AM GMT on July 26, 2012 +0
From the National Center For Atmospheric Research:

Bob Henson | July 24, 2012

"...Heat and drought are punishing much of the United States right now, but there’s actually some good weather news to report. This month is on track to produce fewer tornadoes than any July on record, and by a long shot..."

"...As of July 23, this month has produced a paltry total of 14 tornado reports, according to preliminary data from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC). While there could be more twisters before month’s end, a major outbreak doesn’t appear likely at all..."

Their report has a chart that shows just how unusual this month has been, compared to past Julys. The next-most-quiet July after 2012 is 1960, which saw a total of 42 tornadoes - three times what we’ve seen thus far this month. Many Julys have produced more than 100 twisters.

"...The number of U.S. tornadoes reported each July has gradually risen since the 1950s, with more observers and cameras watching the skies..."

"...The results get even more interesting when you adjust the numbers for “report inflation.” Tornado reports have gradually increased since the 1950s, especially for weak twisters..."

"...This appears to be a byproduct of the steady growth of interest in storm spotting and tornado chasing, along with the advent of inexpensive, high-quality digital photo and video tools. The attention and technology have combined to boost the reported numbers of weak tornadoes, whereas the strongest ones are being observed about as often as they were 50 or 60 years ago - a clue that it’s observing practice rather than climate change behind the trend..." (Their words, not mine).

"...One of the country’s most active tornado days of 2012 was April 14, when 153 twisters were reported, including this one near Cherokee, Oklahoma. Since that date, tornadic activity has run far below average..."

"...In fact, this month could end up producing fewer tornadoes than any month on record for meteorological summer (June, July, and August). Among these, the old record is 20, set in August 1957. The inflation-adjusted number for that month would be 39..."

I seem to remember just after the massive outbreak in April occurred - there were several who stated that the early and frequent tornadoes was absolute proof of CAGW. Now that the count is down, and NCAR has weighed in, let's see if any of them will even acknowledge this report - and their conclusion that climate change wasn't a factor.
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Unprecedented flooding in China
Posted by: hcubed, 12:21 PM GMT on July 24, 2012 +0
Well, to some it will be unprecedented, and defininte proof of CAGW.

Until the facts come out.

"...Hong Kong (CNN) -- What has been described as the "heaviest rain in six decades" left at least 37 people dead and raised criticism about Beijing's infrastructure and the government's response to disasters.

The torrential downpour lasted 10 hours over the weekend, producing gusty winds and a tornado in one suburb, according to local media.

The deluge was the largest since 1951, when the state weather record was established, according to Beijing Morning Post, bringing about 6.7 inches of rain in some parts of Beijing, and as much as 18 inches in the suburban Fangshan district...

A ten-hour downpour, resulting in about 18 inches of rain in some parts.

And it happened before. In 1951, it says. 61 years ago.

If people use a 30-year benchmark to state the difference between climate and weather, then there have been two climate cycles since the last "unprecedented" rain in China.

If CAGW were in full force, that record should be re-set every year.

But, once again, the weather wasn't the full story.

"...Many people marveled at how fragile the Beijing's infrastructure seemed for a modern metropolis. Despite the billions of dollars spent to upgrade its roads and buildings, the city's sewage system appeared quickly overwhelmed by the rainstorm..."

I'm reminded of the old Bill Cosby skit - the God and Noah discussion:

God: "I'm gonna let it rain for a thousand days, and flood them out"

Noah "Why don't you just let it rain for 40 days and 40 nights, and wait for the sewers to back up?"

God: "Right..."
Updated: 12:21 PM GMT on July 24, 2012   Permalink | A A A
New data out concerning all-time state records.
Posted by: hcubed, 2:38 AM GMT on July 16, 2012 +1
With all of the screaming about the current heat-wave (and how it's a sign of the CAGW caused by CO2), it's interesting that new data shows an entirely new side.

First, the data we're using is from here:

SCEC

It seems that the SCEC (U.S. State Climate Extremes Committee) went through old records and found other new sources. So now we have “new and improved” data for the value, the date and the location of the all-time high and low temperature, greatest 24-hr precipitation, greatest 24-hr snowfall and greatest snowdepth for 50 states and two territories. The statewide record extremes have been updated through 2011 and are subject to continuous updating.

So what kind of information shows up when you look at the records?

Several things.

First, and most obvious, is that not a single all-time state record was SET in the past decade (last one that shows up is South Dakota - and that was a tie: set in 1936, and tied in 2006)

But something else is surfacing - the FACT that the majority of the records were either set (or tied) BEFORE the CO2 reached that deadly tipping point (350ppm).

If you look into the records deeper, you see a definite pattern forming.

Let's for example, take one day - July 14th. And, we'll compare how the records stand for that day.

From here

"...There are 901 USHCN stations which were operating during both 1930 and 2011. Out of those stations, eighty-nine percent set their all time July 14 maximum temperature record with CO2 below 350 ppm.

Thirty-eight percent (347) set their all time July 14 record during the 1930s and eighteen percent (162) set their all-time July 14 record during the 1950s.

Only three stations have set their all time July 14 record during the current decade..."

It appears there is no basis for attributing the current US heat waves to rises in CO2.
Updated: 3:28 PM GMT on July 16, 2012   Permalink | A A A
"New McCarthyism" identified by Dr Mann.
Posted by: hcubed, 7:49 PM GMT on July 10, 2012 +1
"...Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists..."

Reminds me of why ABC news isn't at the top of my "must see" list.

Well, since he brought it up, and since many people alive today won't recognize the term, let's examine the "OLD McCarthyism"

From Wiki:

"...McCarthyism is the practice of making accusations of disloyalty, subversion, or treason without proper regard for evidence..."

Wow. He says there are people out there who are making accusations of disloyalty, subversion, or treason against "climate scientists". Hope he has evidence to back that up.

So some historical context is needed.

"...The term has its origins in the period in the United States known as the Second Red Scare, lasting roughly from 1950 to 1954 and characterized by heightened fears of communist influence on American institutions and espionage by Soviet agents..."

We don't have a heightend fear of the Soviets anymore. We do have a fear that the "climate scientists" are altering or withholding data in an attempt to cause fear that the climate is reaching some "tipping point", and plunging the globe into some catastrophic, apocalyptic lifestyle.

Since he used McCarthyism, and since a part of the definition includes the term "...without proper regard for evidence...", people really should examine evidence before making any wild, unsubstantiated accusations of disloyalty, subversion, or treason.

So google the terms Mann, Tiljander.

We'll get back to that evidence later on...

But, to continue - "...Originally coined to criticize the anti-communist pursuits of Republican U.S. Senator Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin, "McCarthyism" soon took on a broader meaning, describing the excesses of similar efforts..."

Used to describe anti-communist pursuits (as identified by others). So I suppose he's trying to say that they're trying to expose those with anti-science pursuits.

If I said there were a group of people that will do whatever they can to try to keep scientific papers out of the journals, would that be anti-science?

If I said there were people who pressured a journal editor to quit because a peer-reviewed paper was published, would that be anti-science?

If I said there were people that refuse to archive their data and refuse to pass this data on to legitimate scientists, would you call that anti-science?

If someone stated "why should I pass my data to others if all they're trying to do is find something wrong with it" could that person's actions be described as anti-science?

If someone takes data that the original authors described as contaminated, turned that data upside down and used it to infer that the earth is heading for some catastrophic, apocalyptic future, would that be considered anti-science?

Here's where that discussion of Dr Mann's use of the Tiljander proxy comes in. Well, at least there's evidence available for the accusations.

What about the other "scientists" that support and defend such data hoarding, data manipulation, and faulty results? Would they be labeled as being anti-science?

Meet the world of the "climate scientist". While this evidence may not rise to the level of disloyalty, subversion, or treason, it sure falls under another part of the defination of McCarthyism:

"...The term is also now used more generally to describe reckless, unsubstantiated accusations, as well as demagogic attacks on the character or patriotism of political adversaries..."

I don't consider scientists to be political adversaries. I don't care which side of the fence they find themselves on. Scientists, like others can (and do) have their own ideas about the world in general. No one denies that.

But when they use their "science" (or their standing in the scientific world) to try to shape the political process, they stop being scientists.

I've heard quite a few "climate scientists" do exactly what Dr Mann is accusing others of doing - passing on reckless, unsubstantiated accusations, as well as demagogic attacks on the character or patriotism of political adversaries.

Such as accusing us of McCarthyism. Can't wait to see the other four parts and see what other terms he uses to describe us.
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