hcubed's WunderBlog

Debby is on the move.

By: hcubed, 6:54 PM GMT on June 25, 2012

Well, seems to be on the move, to the east. The graphic still shows a Fla landfall by Thursday.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
100 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DEBBY IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

AT 100 PM CDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...3 TO 5 FT

FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

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A little cleanup, a little wait.

By: hcubed, 3:15 AM GMT on June 25, 2012

Well, spent some of the day re-arranging my shed, waiting to see what track Debby takes.

So where is she?

Well, the current placement (10:05 local), and using Public Advisory number 7, puts TS Debby here:

LOCATION...28.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 110 MI SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 200 MI ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

Appears to be forecasted to move slowly north.

And the warnings west of N.O. are gone, followed by this:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

For a while there, it looked like the only place not covered by a warning/watch was the Mississippi coast.

I'll check again in the morning.

Updated: 6:45 PM GMT on June 25, 2012

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More on Debby

By: hcubed, 2:37 AM GMT on June 24, 2012

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A

700 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...DEBBY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

...OUTER RAINBANDS LASHING PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 87.5W
ABOUT 220 MI SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST. DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

***So at the next advisory (10PM), we should see any changes to the map and track. We'll see if the models have agreed on a direction.

Updated: 2:44 AM GMT on June 24, 2012

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4th named storm, Debby.

By: hcubed, 9:04 PM GMT on June 23, 2012

...Tropical Storm Debby forms in the central Gulf of Mexico...
...Tropical Storm Warning issued for a portion of the Louisiana coast...

summary of 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...26.2n 87.6w
about 220 mi SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River
maximum sustained winds...50 mph
present movement...N or 360 degrees at 6 mph
minimum central pressure...1001 mb...29.56 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the mouth of the Pearl River westward to Morgan City Louisiana...not including the city of New Orleans or Lake Pontchartrain.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* the coast of Louisiana from the mouth of the Pearl River westward to Morgan City...not including the city of New Orleans or Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
Aircraft reconnaissance and buoy data indicate that the area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has become Tropical Storm Debby.

At 400 PM CDT the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 26.2 north...longitude 87.6 west. Debby is moving toward the north near 6 mph. A slow northward motion is expected tonight... followed by a westward turn on Sunday. On the forecast track...the center of Debby will be moving over the northern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher gusts. These winds are occurring well east of the center of circulation. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles to the east of the center.

Minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 1001 mb...29.56 inches.

Hazards affecting land
----------------------
Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Sunday night...making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Storm surge...the combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following depths above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana...1 to 3 ft

the deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle...and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area...please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office.


Rainfall...Debby is expected to produce rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the Gulf Coast from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle... with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches.

Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory...1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Avila

***Roughly 36 hours away, not accounting for any stalls or backtracks. Maybe 4AM on Monday. At least we're not in the path - yet.

Makes us 4/1/0, 23 days into the season.

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Heading into the danger zone.

By: hcubed, 2:34 AM GMT on June 22, 2012

Well, even though we're 3/1/0, and having an early Hurricane (Chris), we've been lucky about not getting hit here in Biloxi.

That may change.

96L IN the Gulf provides the wake-up call we need (and something to watch).

Its current location of 22.0N/89.0W puts it roughly 600 miles due south of us. Its current movement of 3mph to the North means an estimate of 8 days away.

So the wait is on. Good thing I've started to put some small stuff in the van.

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And we have Chris *UPDATED*

By: hcubed, 1:31 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

Chris has been named, and is no threat to land.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS CHRIS TRAVERSES THE MARGINALLY WARM WATERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS IN 36-48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW STRENGTHENING AS A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

ONLY TWICE BEFORE...IN 1887 AND 1959...HAS THE THIRD STORM OF THE SEASON FORMED EARLIER THAN THIS DATE.

I love that last line - shows that this early storm is not "unprecedented".

It's also no representation of us having a more active season. Several seasons have had early storms, and gone on to either have a gap between the next storm, or a low season count.

And, remember, the count goes on. This is the 2431st day since a Major hit the CONUS. Such a string of good luck is unprecidented, and surely has to be the result of CAGW (well, maybe we can drop the "catastrophic" part for now).

Now we'll look towards the mess around Cuba, and see if Levi's right about the SE Tex rain.

*UPDATED*

Chris becomes the season's first hurricane:

"...Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris..."

Still no threat to land.

We're now 3/1/0.

Updated: 7:43 PM GMT on June 21, 2012

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What's happened before can happen again.

By: hcubed, 6:46 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

The following story bears out the re-phrased comment "Those who forget about past extreme weather events are doomed to state that current weather extremes are unprecedented".

Also, there are still those who insist that extreme weather has no natural drivers, that today's weather is a result of CO2, and CO2 alone.

"...COLUMBIA, Mo. – This past March was the second warmest winter month ever recorded in the Midwest, with temperatures 15 degrees above average. The only other winter month that was warmer was December of 1889, during which temperatures were 18 degrees above average. Now, MU researchers may have discovered why the weather patterns during these two winter months, separated by 123 years, were so similar. The answer could help scientists develop more accurate weather prediction models.

Tony Lupo, chair of the Department of Soil, Environment and Atmospheric Sciences in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources at MU, created computer models with global weather records and ship captains’ logs to determine why these two months were unusually warm. He discovered that the preceding months were also dry and warm, as well as the previous summers, which led him to determine that both 2012 and 1889 were La Niña years.

“During a period of La Niña the sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean are lower than normal by 3 to 6 degrees,” Lupo said. “This typically directs the jet stream from the Pacific on a northeastern path over Canada. Rain storms follow the jet stream, leaving the central and south-central states dry, while blocking air from moving south into the Midwest, resulting in higher temperatures.”

The discovery of the similarity between these two months, even though they are separated by 123 years, could help scientists understand the variability within climate patterns and assist them with future weather predictions. Thus, scientists could further understand how climate is changing and how variable it is becoming.

As well as being La Niña years, 2012 and 1889 also featured strong Artic Oscillations, a pattern of air pressure that wraps itself around the North Pole. During these times the air pressure is low and the oscillation traps and keeps cold air in the artic. With oscillation keeping cold air to the north, records showed a strong “ridge” over central North America. Ridges often bring record heat into an area, explaining the unusually warm winter temperatures, Lupo explained.

“The La Niña pattern has continued into the summer and will continue to affect the weather,” Lupo said. “This will cause droughts and above average heat throughout the Midwest from Texas to Iowa. A new El Nino pattern could develop this fall and bring favorable weather conditions to the Midwest; however, I don’t see this happening.”

Lupo is a fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society in London and is a member of the International Panel for Climate Change that shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007..."

Amazing. This was just as simple as examining past records, using knowledge of weather patterns, and applying common sense.

It's refreshing to read articles in which man wasn't mentioned as a cause for current weather extremes.

If man HAD been mentioned, they would have had to explain how CO2 can drive one but not the other.

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...and the counters go wild... (edited)

By: hcubed, 11:32 PM GMT on June 07, 2012

Without even reading Dr. Masters blog, I can predict the theme:

CNN news reports "...Spring weather the warmest since 1910 NOAA says...".

So the whole blog will be bragging from the "counters".

But buried in the report they link to (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/5), they have charts all over the place.

Just one to put some things in perspective, found on this page (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/uspa/?ar ea=warm-cold&year=2012&month=5), with the caption:

"...The percentage areas of the contiguous United States are computed based on the climate division data set. Those climate divisions having the monthly average temperature in the top ten percent (> 90th percentile) of their historical distribution are very warm and those in the bottom ten percent (< 10th percentile) are very cold..."

And the chart at the bottom of the plot tells something interesting - so far, in 2012, they're showing 47.88% vary warm, and 0% very cold.

But before we jump for joy at the obvious signs of CAGW, look at the other years that had no very cold for the entire year:

Very cold, by year.

1902, 0%
1922, 0%
1934, 0%
1939, 0%
1949, 0%
1951, 0%
1985, 0%
1986, 0%
2000, 0%
2001, 0%

So if only get ONE area that falls into the "very cold" this year, we won't tie with the previous 10 unprecedented times it's happened.

So what about the other end? The very warm?

Well, the current value of 47.88% for the first part of 2012 is exceeded by a value of 56.10% the entire year of 1896. We might break that this year.

But, since we're looking at extremes we see that the following years had zero in the VERY WARM column:

1909, 1917, 1923, 1929, 1945, 1961, 1967, 1968, 1971.

Really shows the variability of climate. Especially since the values of the "very warm" have had relatively decreasing values for the last few years (since the "warmest ever" year of 1998):

1998 40.34%
1999 4.10%
2000 33.98%
2001 25.34%
2002 8.02%
2003 15.86%
2004 27.89%
2005 2.94%
2006 23.68%
2007 13.59%
2008 3.99%
2009 21.13%
2010 15.50%
2011 2.46%

So as of now, we're showing up as the warmest since 1998. But still have some way to go before we hit the warmest since records began...

...Added... It didn't take long:

Spring 2012: most extreme season in U.S. history

By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 2:08 PM GMT on June 08, 2012

Updated: 2:37 AM GMT on June 09, 2012

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And the count continues...

By: hcubed, 9:22 PM GMT on June 02, 2012

The official start of hurricane season has finally arrived and we're already 2 storms in.

It has now been 2,413 days since Hurricane Wilma made landfall in southwest Florida.

And remember, this "count" is for majors (cat 3 or greater, 111mph/96kts or up) that struck the U.S. mainland.

Granted, there have been other hurricanes since then. Several of them majors (including some Cat 5's).

2005 finished out the season with two more hurricanes:

1. Hurricane Beta
26-31 October 2005

After pounding the island of Providencia, Beta struck a sparsely-settled area of Nicaragua with maximum sustained winds near 90 kt (cat 2).

2. Hurricane Epsilon
29 November – 8 December 2005

Epsilon, the 26th named tropical cyclone of the 2005 hurricane season, developed from a non-tropical upper-level area of low pressure in the central subtropical Atlantic, becoming the second tropical cyclone to do so in this area within the span of a week. It was only the sixth hurricane on record in the month of December. Epsilon’s estimated peak intensity of 75 kt occurred early on 5 December. No landfall.

In 2006, there were 4:

1. Hurricane Florence (updated 4 January 2007):

3 – 12 September 2006

Florence was a category 1 hurricane that brought hurricane conditions to Bermuda. As an extratropical low, it brought hurricane-force winds to portions of Newfoundland.

2. Hurricane Gordon

10-20 September 2006

Gordon was a category 3 hurricane that affected the Azores as a hurricane, causing minimal damage. As an extratropical system it brought heavy rains and high winds to parts of western Europe, causing substantial power outages and at least five injuries. Made it to major, but no US landfall.

3. Hurricane Helene

12-24 September 2006

Helene was a long-lived Cape Verde hurricane that remained at sea and attained category 3. No U.S. landfall.

4. Hurricane Isaac

27 September-02 October 2006

Isaac was a category 1 hurricane that developed over the central Atlantic Ocean. Even though Isaac did not make landfall, it produced tropical storm force winds over portions of southeastern Newfoundland.

So that made the first full season (after Katrina) that had NO United States mainland major landfalls.

What about the next year (2007)?

1. Hurricane Dean

13-23 August 2007

Dean was a classic Cape Verde cyclone that moved through the Caribbean as a major hurricane, passing very close to Jamaica and later making landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a category 5 hurricane. Dean, the first Atlantic hurricane since Andrew of 1992 to reach land at category 5 strength, was responsible for 32 deaths. But no US landfall.

2. Hurricane Felix

31 August – 5 September 2007

Hurricane Felix was a small, but powerful, category 5 hurricane that caused major damage in northeastern Nicaragua. Second major of the year, second cat five of the year, and still no US landfall.

3. Hurricane Humberto

12-14 September 2007

Humberto was a short-lived tropical cyclone that made landfall in extreme southeastern Texas as a strong category 1 hurricane. The hurricane is notable for its exceptionally rapid intensification near the coast of Texas from a tropical depression into a hurricane within 19 hours.

Some people would probably want to "reset" the clock, because it WAS a hurricane, and it DID hit Texas.

But the record string is for majors, not just US landfalls.

4. Hurricane Karen (redesignated as a hurricane in the post-season re-analysis)

25-29 September 2007

Karen was briefly a hurricane over the tropical Atlantic. It did not threaten land, and it dissipated just to the east of the Leeward Islands.

5. Hurricane Lorenzo

25-28 September 2007

Hurricane Lorenzo was a category 1 hurricane that made landfall in Mexico south of Tuxpan - in virtually the same location that Hurricane Dean had struck a month earlier.

6. Hurricane Noel

28 October-2 November 2007

Noel took an erratic track across Hispaniola and Cuba as a tropical storm before becoming a hurricane as it exited the northwestern Bahamas. Torrential rainfall from Noel produced devastating floods and loss of life in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Noel then evolved into a large and powerful extratropical cyclone that brought hurricane force wind gusts to portions of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada.

Thus ends the SECOND full season (after Katrina) that had NO United States mainland major landfalls.

I'll pick up on the next seasons (2008-2011) in the next post.

Updated: 3:22 AM GMT on June 03, 2012

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hcubed's WunderBlog

About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).