hcubed's WunderBlog

GAO report on the poor quality of the US climate monitoring network.

By: hcubed, 3:49 AM GMT on October 01, 2011

"...USHCN stations meet NOAA’s siting standards and management requirements to varying degrees. According to GAO’s survey of weather forecast offices, about 42 percent of the active stations in 2010 did not meet one or more of the siting standards. With regard to management requirements, GAO found that the weather forecast offices had generally but not always met the requirements to conduct annual station inspections and to update station records. NOAA officials told GAO that it is important to annually visit stations and keep records up to date, including siting conditions, so that NOAA and other users of the data know the conditions under which they were recorded. NOAA officials identified a variety of challenges that contribute to some stations not adhering to siting standards and management requirements, including the use of temperature-measuring equipment that is connected by a cable to an indoor readout device—which can require installing equipment closer to buildings than specified in the siting standards..."

Rest of report here: Link

Remember, these are the extremely accurate weather measuring stations that tell us we've had a rise of about a degree in the past 180 years.

And it's gonna get worse - much worse...

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time to close up shop

By: hcubed, 1:04 AM GMT on September 30, 2011

Well, it looks like most of the old users found a new home, so I think I'll join them.

No trolls.

No monomania.

No three letter discussions (jfv, agw, etc).

For one of the top weather sites, this place has died.

The trolls have won, and they can have it.

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Ophelia's here, and basti11 says we're safe.

By: hcubed, 5:34 PM GMT on September 21, 2011

Ophelia's pretty close to hurricane strength.

At 11AM EDT, it was at 13.0N/43.6W, with 60MPH winds, and travelling west at 16mph.

It's nice to know, however, that we're safe.

The "gifted" poster known as basti11 has spoken:

basti11 2:44 PM GMT on September 21, 2011

"...well im saying the cape verdes season is officially over for 2011...only area to worry about is the western caribbean sea...as of today sept 21 the GOM is officially closed for business for this hurricane season for 2011...areas of concern tampa fla south into the keys and bahamas..also the east coast is officially closed for business this hurricane season due to the strong trofs that continue to hang around and turn anything away from the united states..south fla its your turn especially into the month of october..i hope you guys have all your supplies ready..."

20 years of experience (so he says), but won't let us know officially what names he's used.

He can't.

He's been perma-banned under other names for this exact same reason - leading unsuspecting newcomers to believe he actually knows what he's talking about.

He doesn't. Don't believe him.

The only reason some people here havent ignored him is because of the entertainment value.

He'll pull what he's done before - when this forecast is busted, he'll disappear, change his name, and be back with another outlandish forecast.

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Arctic sea ice bottoms out near all-time low...

By: hcubed, 2:09 AM GMT on September 18, 2011

...key phrase was NEAR all time low.

This means that so far (pending any last minute "adjustments"), this is the 4th year in a row that failed to exceed the record low ice extent of 2007.

But according to Dr Masters, "...We are definitely on pace to see the Arctic virtually sea ice-free in summer by 2030, as predicted by several leading Arctic sea ice scientists. I expect we'll see more than half of the Arctic ice gone and the North Pole liquid instead of solid by the summer of 2020, and probably sooner..."

At least it's a falsifiable date. So we're on a countdown - 9 years to go. But that means that, if the minimum ice extent for this year is about 4.5 Million SqKm, we're going to need to melt off about half a million SqKm per year.

So each year becomes a watch. Next year has to be a minimum of 3.5 Million SqKm, just to stay on track.

After all, the world depends on these scientists to be right - that each year must get worse and worse. Just not the Arctic ice. Just not this year.

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"Those who cannot remember the past...

By: hcubed, 6:45 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

...are condemned to repeat it."

George Santayana, The Life of Reason (1905-1906) Vol. I

This has ben misquoted and paraphrased so many times, yet it still means the same thing.

It can now be re-stated, and applied to the current discussion about extreme weather and the CAGW debate:

"Those who cannot remember past extreme weather events are condemned to state that all current extreme weather events are unprecedented."

The CAGW believers will never tie themselves down to a particular point in time where they'll say that natural variation turned into man-driven variation.

Every current flood, drought, tornado, hurricane, heat wave, cold snap are all tied to man's use of Fossil Fuels.

Yet all past flood, drought, tornado, hurricane, heat wave, cold snap conditions were just weather.

If there were only a listing of all weater-related events someone could look at to compare if the current events are more extreme or more common.

Well, there is:

A Chronological Listing of Early Weather Events

Here, you'll find a 6.5MB listing of a chronology that covers the years 0 to 1900 A.D. (may take a while to load).

So ask an AGW believer what year marks the divide, and you'll be able to show that there are quite a few events prior to that time (which, according to them, must be naturally driven), and can't possibly be because of CO2 increases.

For example, if you look at the times for the LIA (Little Ice Age), you'll see brutal summer heat waves like we saw last year in Russia or this year in Texas.

Counter their "list" with one of your own.

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The bets are "on"

By: hcubed, 4:42 PM GMT on September 14, 2011

For those of you wishing to make some money, you might want to get in on this action:

basti11 3:36 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
my odds of the gulfcoast getting hit by a hurricane after SEPTEMBER 24

TEXAS 100/1
LOUISIANA 75/1
MISSISSIPPI 65/1
ALABAMA 40/1
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA NORTH OF TAMPA 25/1

PLACES YOU HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR

TAMPA SOUTH TO THE KEYS 9/2
BAHAMAS 7/2
CUBA JAMAICA 6/1
YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA 3/1

ODD OF A HURRICANE COMING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND STRINKING ANYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN 50/1

ALL THIS INFO IS FOR AFTER SEPTEMBER 24TH...

Wow. 100/1 odds of no hurricane hitting Texas after Sept 24th.

You might do as I did, copy this down.

'Cause if he follows true to form, he'll disapper, change his name, and disavow he ever said this.

Right after he edits the post...

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).