hcubed's WunderBlog

possible trouble coming?

By: hcubed, 10:30 PM GMT on August 30, 2011

NWS Tallahassee

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY).

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD INTO GA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE ON FRI...BUT THEN BEGIN TO SETTLE SWD TO A POSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD WILL DEPEND ON THE TROPICS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A TC SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN OR SRN GULF IN THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME FRAME. THE NAM APPEARS TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY. THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SHOW A MORE GRADUAL SPIN UP WITH A CYCLONE CENTERED ABOUT 280 MI E OR ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TX ON FRI.

AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NLY TRACK TOWARD LA AND THEN TAKES A SHARP LEFT TURN BACK TOWARD THE TX COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 29/12Z EURO ALSO SHOWED SOME TYPE OF LOOP OVER THE NWRN GULF...BUT THE LATEST 00Z RUN ALLOWS IT TO SIT AND SPIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE.

THESE DISCREPANCIES WILL LARGELY IMPACT HOW BREEZY IT GETS OVER THE ERN GULF. HOWEVER...ANY SCENARIO WITH A TC IN THE WRN GULF WILL LIKELY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED POP...ESPECIALLY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS UPWARD TREND IN POPS BEGINS SUN WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AND MON. ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL FINALLY PUT A CAP ON MAX TEMPS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WRN ZONES ON SAT AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EVERYWHERE SUN AND MON.

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Season heats up, drastic action taken...

By: hcubed, 2:18 AM GMT on August 28, 2011

I'm beginning to see the real value of the Ignore user feature - makes the blog easier to go through, and stops the trolls cold.

I've simply set a 100 post minimum. If you haven't posted 100 entries or more, you are officially ignored.

Some of those new posters may just be coming on, trying to find out about the storm. To be honest, if you're coming here to get official info about the storm, you're in the wrong place. Go to weather.gov or weather .com (The Weather Channel) for more accurate data.

If you're just interested in tracking, or want to see "between the lines", or "behind the scenes" of how the data is collected and decoded, this is the place.

So why the 100 post limit? Some people have no other life than to come here and "troll" - make comments that are meant to disrupt or confuse - even to the fact of making up their own "models", talking about their "weather services", or just flat-out lying (some have posted fake reports, just because). After enough uproar, their accounts are banned, so they have to create another (with recent join dates and low post counts).

I fully expect to have a couple hundred ignored posters by the end of the season - so be it.

Updated: 12:31 PM GMT on August 29, 2011

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Irene's a major...

By: hcubed, 1:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...


LOCATION...21.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

Updated: 1:10 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

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What a wild weekend.

By: hcubed, 12:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

So let's see:

Franklin born, and died.

Gert born, close to hurricane.

93L (our "threater"), de-activated (and according to some posts, re-activated).

So we wait for the discussion and model runs. the last runs had it coming west, possibly entering the GOM by the 20th. Just now coming up to the Lessers.

invest_REACTIVATE_al932011.ren

Apparently at 13.3N, 54.7W, 20, 1010

Waiting for models, then...

Updated: 12:33 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Oh no, they're multiplying...

By: hcubed, 12:40 PM GMT on August 12, 2011

According to the latest TWO, there are now FOUR areas they're watching.

200 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Of the observed systems, it appears that 93L has the best chance to develop, and the models at 6 days out show a major hitting Puerto Rico.

It's still on track of having a system approaching between the 20th - 24th of the month.

Scary, because Katrina hit on the 29th.

Updated: 6:27 PM GMT on August 12, 2011

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...and the story continues...

By: hcubed, 7:21 PM GMT on August 11, 2011

200 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

So both 92L and 93L are up to 40%.

One will be Franklin, one will be Gert.

Last Franklin (2005) also had a close relationship to Gert - it spawned it.

It appears Franklin and Gert are destined to be close...

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Tales of two invests - 92L & 93L.

By: hcubed, 2:26 PM GMT on August 11, 2011

First, the latest TWO:

800 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

This is the one they call 92L.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

This is the one they call 93L.

3. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

This one? Theres always a possibility that as fronts move through the GOM, lows can form. So they're keeping their eyes on this. Not named yet.

Now for the tracks.

models still have 92L and 93L heading west. But with about 2 weeks to go before threatening the US, too much can change. They are showing possible recurve, but...

Something to watch.

Time to double or triple check your supplies.

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Well, looks like time to start the season.

By: hcubed, 1:14 PM GMT on August 10, 2011

Here it is, the 10th of August, one month away from the peak of the season.

We've had 5 Tropical Storms so far (5/0/0) and on our second pass through the invest list.

The models are starting to show chains of storms, beginning with 92L (was activated, de-activated, and re-activated).

As of today, it's at about 12.2N/30.6W:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WESTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

This storm, if it develops, will be named Franklin. The last time Franklin was born (in 2005) it passed through the islands, split, and spawned Gert.

Neither one got past TS status.

Will this one be different? We'll find out in about a week. Yes, it's that far out.

LOTS of time...

Updated: 1:19 PM GMT on August 10, 2011

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Emily's run MAY be coming to a close.

By: hcubed, 6:20 PM GMT on August 04, 2011

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011


AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND EMILY COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

But remember, Katrina formed from a weak wave. So never say it's out 'till it passes you.

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Emily still moving west(erly), may still impact Florida.

By: hcubed, 12:05 PM GMT on August 04, 2011

TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY #10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY SPREADING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 71.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST... THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

Even if the forecasted turn comes about, there is still a chance this may graze the east coast of Florida.

At this time, it appears that the Gulf Coast is safe.

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).