hcubed's WunderBlog

Hurricane hunters out, advisories being considered.

By: hcubed, 7:23 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

The HH are currently gathering data, the NHC's latest TWO says "near 100%", we have TD#4, and advisories are being considered:

"...Advisories will likely be started at 400pm on either tropical depression or tropical storm Don. Visible satellite images shows a well defined low level cloud swirl on the northern edge of deep convection just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and the system is likely already a tropical cyclone. The aircraft mission was delayed this morning, but the plane is now en-route and depending on what it finds the system may be upgraded directly to a tropical storm.

Since we are already close to 60 hours out from landfall, tropical storm or hurricane watches may be issued for the TX coast with either the 400pm or 1000pm NHC advisory package assuming the plane finds a closed low level circulation. Onset of tropical storm force winds along the TX coast would be sometime in the late afternoon or early evening hours on Friday with increasing rainbands during the day on Friday spreading inland. Still a bit early to try and nail down the greatest area for impact, but the region between roughly Galveston Island to Corpus Christi appears in the greatest threat zone.

Will get detailed TX impacts out by 600pm this evening after a suite of conference calls and the NHC package around 400pm. Main threat right now appears to be rainfall and strong winds with storm surge a distance 3rd due to the small size of the system. Will address all impacts later this afternoon.

Residents along the Texas coast should review their hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to enact these plans on Thursday..."

Please pay attention.

Updated: 8:18 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Time to get serious *WE HAVE TD4*

By: hcubed, 4:09 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

It's official.

AL, 04, 2011072718, , BEST, 0, 223N, 873W, 30, 1008, TD,

invest_RENUMBER_al902011_al042011


We're now starting to hear from the authorities

"...Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put these plans into effect over the next 48 hours. Closely monitor weather forecast for potential rapid changes and increasing impacts to the Texas coast..."

Time for jokes is over.

Pay attention to the weather, your local TV or radio, and finish your preparations.

I predict that once the HH fly through there, gather data, and models are run, we'll have a better idea of the possible track. Things are going to change fast.

As verification:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Updated: 7:33 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Continuing the expert's prediction...

By: hcubed, 3:46 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

We started with this:

1784. cloudburst2011 9:37 PM CDT on July 26, 2011

"...rita give it time it has 3 days to expand across the gom...it will be a tropical depression tomorrow at the 5am advisory...then named DON wed night..."

Well, didn't make TD at 5am.

We might get the DON designation by wed night, however.

But he's expanded it to actual landfall and time:


2611. cloudburst2011 8:58 AM CDT on July 27, 2011

"...this is going to be the upper texas coast for don..it could develop into a strong cat 1 or a weak cat 2 with the water temps and the little shear it will encounter...IMO the central gulf coast or northern GOM is in the clear because of 2 major factors...there is a lot of dry air to our north sinking south and it will over spread us in 24 hours...then you have the strong shear in the northern gom not a great enviroment for DON to come north...so im looking at the UPPER TEXAS COAST for the bullseye early saturday making landfall..."

And added the time here:

2618. cloudburst2011 9:05 AM CDT on July 27, 2011

"...yes it will be in the dark from 2am to 4am..making landfall..."

So to clarify, Upper Texas coast, Saturday morning between 2 to 4AM.

We'll come back later to check.

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90L, the continuation.

By: hcubed, 12:16 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

So what does our "expert" say?

1784. cloudburst2011 9:37 PM CDT on July 26, 2011

"...rita give it time it has 3 days to expand across the gom...it will be a tropical depression tomorrow at the 5am advisory...then named DON wed night..."

So I guess the first question is, did it become a TD yet?

Well, at the 2AM posting:

200 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Interesting. 70%.

And a location here - AL, 90, 2011072706, , BEST, 0, 211N, 852W, 25, 1008, DB

Next, the 8AM (they don't have a TWO at 5AM):

800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Whoops... no TD at 5AM.

Sorry.

Well, at least the HH will be going out today.

And the early 2AM models are now centered on Houston (roughly 500mi to our west).

And stronger USUALLY means more northward.

Must watch...

Updated: 1:39 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

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It's back...

By: hcubed, 11:55 AM GMT on July 26, 2011

ATCF re-invested 90L at about 7PM last night

AL, 90, 2011072600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 798W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

19.2N/79.8W

I figured it would be at about 80W whan we'd see the build-up.

So let me look around and see what else there is.

1. "...The ECMWF 12z deterministic run increases the wave's vorticity as it moves across the Gulf. Compared to the past couple of days' runs, this is a big swing. Also, this run is now agreeing with the rest of the models on track: southern Texas/northern Mexico..." - Angela

2. TWO, 800 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA... JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NEARBY WATERS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE ...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. TWO, 2AM:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Re-activated to 10% chance.

But wait, there's more...

4. TWO, 8AM:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE ...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Went from re-activation and a near zero percentage) to 10%, to 20% - all in the period of 13 hours or so.

I think we have a player...

AL, 90, 2011072612, , BEST, 0, 200N, 830W, 25, 1010

5. TWO, 2PM:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Another 6 hours, another 10%.

At that rate, we'll have TD3/TS Don in a couple of days.

However, the HH will be going out tomorrow afternoon, so expect the upgrade then.

As of now, it appears we'll have Cat1 Don hitting the TX/MX border by Friday (near or north of Brownsville, maybe near Corpus).

Updated: 6:53 PM GMT on July 26, 2011

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Bret gone. Cindy gone. 90L almost gone.

By: hcubed, 3:25 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

So with all this (and 90L hasn't been deactivated yet), Is there still anything to fear?

Well, the heart of the season is almost here. Several people are predicting increased activity, including the infamous StormTop:

2110. cloudburst2011 8:53 AM CDT on July 25, 2011

the sal is slacking up along the coast of africa...quite a few distubances set to come off the coast...this could be the african train starting to get going...if the sal stays away we could have 3 storms by early august...the people thats been saying this is a busted season you have no idea what you are talking about...this will be a very active and dangerous system the way conditions are setting up..so everyone the show is just about to get started..."

The problem is, if we follow the usual StormTop model, then the season will be weak.

But StormTop doesn't work for the NHC. Not a real met. His "StormTop Weather Service" was a joke.

Still, as the saying goes, even a blind squirrel will stumble across an acorn.

He did seem to nail the path of a few storms. But when you put out hundreds of advisories, one or two will bear fruit.

So PLEASE don't listen to him. Listen to the NHC. Lots of better info. From those who know.

Because he says this:

2168. cloudburst2011 9:38 AM CDT on July 25, 2011
rita i agree 100% remember what camille did when it was south of western cuba...this is late july not liking this scenario very much...i think we may be dealing with a depession in 36 hours...

While the rest of the community says this:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren

So we'll see in 36 hours - about 930PM tomorrow night.

THIS JUST IN: We now have confirmation of the patented StormTop NOLA hit:

2240. cloudburst2011 10:30 AM CDT on July 25, 2011

"...tampaspin it was the the biggest wave i have seen come off africa in a long time...if it wouldnt of been for the sal that drained it we would be looking at a major hurricane covering 600 miles which would of destroyed the caribbean...now we have something that shrunk in area size quite a bit so this is going to give someone problems down the road..i would say with the high expected to weaken anyone from texas to pensecola has to watch this..."

He's just projected a hit covering Texas, Louisana, Mississippi, Alabama, and part of the Florida Panhandle.

Maybe he'll narrow it down a little later.

589. cloudburst2011 4:32 PM CDT on July 25, 2011

"...a ull off the coast of belize has developed and this could cause 90L to move more on a nw course and miss the yucatan all together...also 90L the outflow coming from the southwest and northeast is causing some fanning out...90L will be a tropical depression in 36 hours...this could develop rapidly after that with ssts in the gulf near 90degrees..its going to be very interseting the next 36 hours..."

And maybe not. But he's reset his 36hr clock...

729. cloudburst2011 5:24 PM CDT on July 25, 2011

"...yes athome the high over us right now is not very strong and it expected to weaken in the next 48 hours...this wont get near the yucatan...its going to move nw when it develops like pass right over or to the west of havana..then the open water..."

Updated: 1:23 AM GMT on July 26, 2011

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New this season, the Cloudburst Weather Station

By: hcubed, 3:46 AM GMT on July 23, 2011

293. cloudburst2011 1:15 PM CDT on July 22, 2011

'...before everyone starts about the gom with this tw it still has some rough going its going over the dom republic and haiti and its heavy mountainous terrain which should disrupt any type of circulation from developing...if this thing does make it to the gom and thats a big if you may see a tropical depression out of it and it would move towards texas not north towards the la ms or alabama coast...so texans can get some much needed rain...so everyone calm down of course if the track would change and go south of the haiti and dom republic thing could change but that is unlikely..."

Then again, he forecasted a west-moving wave to become Cindy.

Watch his track - that's probably the only people that ARE safe...

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You can't tell the players without a scorecard...

By: hcubed, 12:41 AM GMT on July 21, 2011

So Dora's a Cat 3, possibly a Cat 4.

TS Bret still moving along, East.

And today, 99L changed to TD3 which changed to Cindy...

And the train still moves along.

Stay tuned.

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Dora a Cat 1, Bret still hanging on, and now there's 99L.

By: hcubed, 12:01 PM GMT on July 20, 2011

Scratch that. There's been a change in the line-up.

invest_RENUMBER_al992011_al032011.ren 20-Jul-2011 345N, 547W, 30, 1009, TD

Yep, TD3 replaces 99L. Is "Cindy" far behind?

...But according to some, we're safe:

"...978. cloudburst2011 8:47 PM CST on July 19, 2011

dean i sure dont know what you are looking at to dream this peak set up of yours...i got news for you the a/b high is set up shop very far south then last year...so my friend that spells trouble for the caribbean the winwards jamaica the yucatan and then the mexican coast...im feeling very good the united states will not have to deal with any action from the african coast...we might have to deal with the stalled cool fronts that come down and stall in the gom and then something could form and threaten the the gulfcoast...but the mexico and yucatan are in for a long hurricane season...they will take the full brunt..."

So did you hear that, US?

The forecast of the great cloudburst means that your preparations were wasted.

No need to pack a hurricane kit.

No need to plan an evacuation route.

Rest easy, America. No CV storms for us. This is written in stone...

Oh, wait. This is StormTop we're talking about. If you had listened to his Dean forecast from a few years ago, you would have left town.

For no reason...

Updated: 7:32 PM GMT on July 20, 2011

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Bret's going east, future trouble from the west.

By: hcubed, 12:48 PM GMT on July 19, 2011

Crown Weather

"...Tropical Wave In The Eastern Atlantic Near 35 West Longitude:

I am keeping very close tabs on a tropical wave that is located near 35 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic this morning. Satellite imagery this morning shows some signs of organization, however, this tropical wave lacks deep convection at this time. Latest indications are that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will head east and may have some influence in causing this tropical wave to organize further as it tracks westward over the coming days.

The latest global model guidance reveals that only the Canadian model forecasts tropical cyclone development from this wave. The European model has backed off on forecasting development and the GFS and NOGAPS models forecast no development from this tropical wave. Given that this tropical wave shows some signs of organization, I will be watching this system closely even though the model guidance says no to development.

As for a track, this tropical wave is forecast to track westward over the next few days and is expected to affect the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands from late Friday through Saturday with heavy rainfall and gusty winds..."

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Latest on Bret (and other future mayhem)

By: hcubed, 11:34 AM GMT on July 18, 2011

From Crownweather:

Bret
"...Bret is tracking very slowly to the east this morning according to fixes from reconnaissance aircraft. The latest track guidance is forecasting that Bret will start tracking slowly north-northeastward by tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds to its southeast. From Wednesday and beyond, a trough of low pressure tracking off of the coast of northeastern United States will cause Bret to increase in forward speed as it tracks northeastward. The latest track guidance has shifted to the west a little bit, however, even with that Bret poses no direct threat to the southeastern United States and it looks likely at this time that it will pass well east of the southeastern United States this week.

For the second model run in a row, the European model is forecasting that a tropical wave now located near 30 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic will develop into a tropical cyclone near the southeastern Bahamas next Monday and then track northwestward just off of the coast of eastern Florida during the middle part of next week.

Yesterday afternoon’s European model guidance forecasted that this same tropical wave would wait to develop until it is in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday.

The GFS model does nothing with this tropical wave and the latest Canadian model forecast forecasts development of this tropical wave well north of Puerto Rico next Monday..."

Updated: 11:36 AM GMT on July 18, 2011

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More GW from the main, checking elsewhere for Atlantic data.

By: hcubed, 5:29 PM GMT on July 15, 2011

Since 3 of the last 4 blog posts from Dr Masters has been more concerned with expanding the GW alarmism than with conditions in the Atlantic, sometimes we have to use other sites.

Such as StormW.com.

Such as crownweather.

Such as StormPulse.

Don't get me wrong, but the doc's simple "nothing forecast for the next 7 days" can be obtained from the NWS 7 day forecasts, while other sites go into greater detail about the models, wind shear forecasts, etc.

Even if there's nothing out there, we still need to look down the road.

So feel free to look around. You'll be surprised how much data there is even with "nothing forecast".

Even Levi32 puts up more information on a daily basis than the doc does:

"...Ensemble trends in the models over the last several days are toward a dangerous pattern for the Caribbean and United States in the long-term, looking towards early August.

"The Atlantic ridge, which has been fairly far south so far, is forecasted to lift north to along 35N, extending across the entire Atlantic to connect with the Texas ridge, which is also expected to lift a bit northward into the plains or up into the Rockies.

"In such a pattern, as the Cape Verde season begins to unlock, storms could be steered in the direction of the Caribbean islands, and potentially up towards the U.S. as well. All of those above-normal 500mb heights (orange colors in the left panel) over the northern U.S. and southern Canada are a classic signature of patterns that are known to bring storms to the U.S. coast, as well as the Caribbean..."

And, from StormW's site, is this:

"...I wish to point out a few things, which tend to lead me to believe, we are very close to opening the Cape Verde season.

1.) The African Monsoon Trof now extends as far west as 40W, which should help enhance convective activity soon.

2.) Zonal shear appears to be forecast to be at somewhat favored values, in that it should allow tropical waves, or any development, to remain more vertically stacked.

3.) Dynamic models continue to show a return of the MJO into our basins.

4.) Tropical waves have become more plentiful, bigger, and better structured over the past 2 weeks, and are beginning to line up 3-4 at a time across the Atlantic basin.

5.) Global computer models are in agreement of very strong and high amplitude moisture surges emerging from the African coast, and traversing the Atlantic over the next 7-10 days.

6.) SAL outbreaks have been few and far between, and have been weak in nature. July is usually when we see the strongest outbreaks..."

So several fairly reliable sources state that the season could ramp up quickly.

Updated: 5:15 AM GMT on July 16, 2011

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So we still wait - and watch...

By: hcubed, 2:11 PM GMT on July 15, 2011

From crownweather:

"...The latest European model seasonal forecast for August, September and October continues to forecast a large area of below average barometric pressures over the main development region of the Atlantic season.

"I personally believe that once the first week of August rolls around that activity will pick up very quickly and go gangbusters through September and October. I am still thinking 15 named storms, 9 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes.

"It also continues to look like that the highest potential for an impact this year will be across central and southern Florida, the coasts of South and North Carolina and the northern Gulf coast from the western Florida panhandle to the central Louisiana coast. Get ready now because the meat of the Hurricane Season is quickly approaching. Do not wait until the last minute..."

So the people at crownweather are saying it's gonna get bad.

And fast.

Start thinking real hard about what can be done now. Heavy/bulky items, might be pre-positioned. Think about whether or not something will get a lot of use in the next month or two - if not, tie it down now, or put it away.

And as you shop for groceries, look carefully at the frozen foods. Don't add more that you can use at this time.

Just get ready. We've seen that storms can build fast. You may not have a lot of time to load up.

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7th invest of the season - 97L is born.

By: hcubed, 2:42 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE ...50 PERCENT ...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT ...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

About 3 1/2 hours away from landfall. Might not get named or be classified as a TD.

And, just as quickly, taken away...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE COAST VERY NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS INLAND...IT NOW HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

And this, the latest:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

So far, small rainmakers are hitting the Mexican and Central American coastal areas. Nothing pointed at us yet.

Updated: 12:02 PM GMT on July 15, 2011

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According to the good doctor: UPDATED, we have 97L.

By: hcubed, 11:20 AM GMT on July 13, 2011

"...The Atlantic is quiet

A tropical wave near 10°N, 55°W, about 500 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph, and will bring heavy rain to the southern Lesser Antilles and the northeast coast of South America on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind shear over the wave is low, 5 - 10 knots, but the wave is too close to the Equator to leverage Earth's spin in time for development. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

The NOGAPS models is predicting that a strong tropical disturbance could develop in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Sunday, similar to how Tropical Storm Arlene developed at the end of June. The latest runs of the other reliable models do not predict any tropical cyclone development of note over the next seven days, though the GFS model was showing development of a system off the coast of Africa this week, in its run from Sunday night..."

That post was written two days ago.

According to the NHC:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

So let's see what else the day brings. There's still a couple of models suggesting a storm off Africa, and another sugesting a storm off the N/S Carolina coast.

Will update later.

*UPDATE*

Well, I guess that someone had an idea about this area:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest

We now have 97L. Let the modeling begin...

Updated: 1:49 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

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And the NHC keeps their eyes on the tropics...

By: hcubed, 12:36 PM GMT on July 12, 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

So two circles, both with zero percent. Just them saying "yes, we see them, we just don't expect much from them".

Updated: 12:36 PM GMT on July 12, 2011

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New blob to watch.

By: hcubed, 2:13 PM GMT on July 11, 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

On top of that, though, the long-range models show a couple of CV (long-track) storms developing in the next couple of weeks. Need to be consistant. Will check on that possibility tomorrow.

And, OTOH, there seems to be a StormTop re-birth, with cloudburst2011:

@ 3:15 PM GMT on July 11, 2011

like i said numerous times this year mexico will have a very busy hurricane season this year...anything that forms in the bay of campeche is mexicos baby...the lower gulf coast has nothing to worry about the way the azores bermuda high has set up shop at...we can rest easy...

Using the stormtop model, the Gulf Coast is going to get hit hard this year.

Meanwhile, at 2PM:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED... SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... 10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... NEAR 0 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

No mention of anything near Africa yet.

Updated: 6:03 PM GMT on July 11, 2011

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Watchin' 96L. *It's been deactivated*

By: hcubed, 6:59 PM GMT on July 07, 2011

As of 2pm, they've got it at 24.8N/85.3W, with 30MPH winds, and heading NNW@5.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Some charts are showing a low at that point, and appears to be building. Will it head our way? Early tracks predict the panhandle of Fla.

But still, 20%. Will keep an eye out. Things can build fast down there...

...And, just as fast, things can disappear.

So we wait.

Updated: 9:46 AM GMT on July 10, 2011

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The Atlantic is starting to heat up - we now have 96L and TD#3

By: hcubed, 11:52 AM GMT on July 07, 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

They didn't mention a developing blob approaching the SA coast, might develop.

*EDIT*

Well, yes they did:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA... AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

We're starting to get to the point where the African waves are going to become areas of concern.

Meanwhile, on the other coast:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Looks like we get TD#3/Calvin sometime today.

Further Edit:

We have an invest:

AL, 96, 2011070706, , BEST, 0, 244N, 834W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

This is the one off the coast of Florida.

And there's also TD#3 (EPAC).

invest_RENUMBER_ep932011_ep032011.ren

Busy day so far.

Updated: 2:37 PM GMT on July 07, 2011

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Atlantic quiet, Pacific threatening. *UPDATED*

By: hcubed, 4:55 PM GMT on July 06, 2011

That E Pacific storm now has a 50% chance to develop into something. It's listed as 93E, and is heading west ATM. No threat to land yet.

On our side, several models are hinting at a wave outside the islands to develop into something. May have an invest by the weekend.

Still at 1/0/0.

Well, they fooled us. Here we had been looking at the wave near 40/45, and they throw a yellow circle over SFla and Cuba:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061731
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH FLORIDA...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Looks like Florida might get some drought relief this weekend.

And as for the EPAC blob, we could be seeing TD #3 in the Eastern Pacific soon. The NHC has raised the odds to a 70% chance.

Satellite imagery reveals that there is a low pressure area associated with this invest, and it is gradually becoming better defined.

Updated: 6:58 PM GMT on July 06, 2011

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And the East Pacific rolls along...

By: hcubed, 4:53 AM GMT on July 04, 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 3 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

While on our side:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2011


THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ENDING AROUND 03/1700 UTC SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 14N22W.

THAT SAME CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 15N26W IN CURRENT INFRARED IMAGERY. CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W INCLUDING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

Something to watch.

Updated: 7:33 AM GMT on July 04, 2011

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Those that control the data make the charts... *UPDATED*

By: hcubed, 9:20 AM GMT on July 03, 2011

Gotta say one thing - those who believe in the theory of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming love their lists and charts.

Anything they can do to make the current weather the "warmest/coldest/rainiest/driest" since the earth was formed has been done.

Any data that they gather has been made into a chart (once again, showing the current times are the worst ever). One of their "best" charts is this one, from GISS:



So what does it show?

1. The surface temp record for the world can reliably be shown back to about 1880.

2. There HAS been a rise in surface temps (according to GISS) of about 1 degree C (or about 1.8 degrees F) over this 131 year period (it goes from a value that is .4 below "average" to a little over .6 above "average").

So what don't they say?

1. That the averaging period (base period) runs from 1951-1980 (even though the World Meteorology Org states it's best to use a 30 year period ending with the last full decade).

Other charts use different averaging periods, with a corresponding change in the "average".

2. They have the ONLY chart that ESTIMATES the Arctic temperatures, and they have to do it by looking at stations that are 1200km (about 745mi) away. They call it extrapolation.

You can do this yourself. Take your current location (such as Biloxi, MS), and draw a circle 745 miles around it. Pick a station, and start using that for your daily forecast.

In my case, using GISS logic, I could use any station just north of Peoria IL. That would sure make my summer days a lot cooler.

3. The Little Ice age. NASA defines the term as "a cold period between 1550 AD and 1850 AD and notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming."

So, since NASA mentions a cold interval around 1850, and since the chart starts in 1880, there is a possibility that the beginning of the chart is reflecting the end of this period. You would EXPECT to see a warming period coming out of the LIA.

4. Area of coverage and number of stations.

These charts, from GISS, shows:



a. The number of reporting stations as a function of time has risen to a peak (somewhere around 1980), and then dropped. The current number of stations appears to be the same as we were using back in the 1920's.

The "drastic rise" in temps since 1980 appears to have happened while the number of stations used has dropped.

One would think that we would have more stations, better measurement devices and a lot more data available than we did back in the 20's.

b. The coverage of the stations. While the NUMBER of stations has dropped from around 6000 to around 2000, the percentage coverage has only gone down slightly. Fewer stations with about the same coverage? Doesn't sound quite right.

So has the earth warmed? YES.

By how much? NOT SURE.

Is there any proof that the activities of man has caused every bit of the 1 degree rise we've seen in the world since 1880? Has every other single external natural cause been ruled out?

The jury's still out...

*UPDATE*

Scientists proclaimed today they've found definitive proof that summer leads to hotter temperatures world wide.

Updated: 12:45 AM GMT on July 04, 2011

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).

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