hcubed's WunderBlog

Arlene makes landfall

By: hcubed, 12:38 PM GMT on June 30, 2011

...ARLENE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CABO ROJO MEXICO...

4:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 30
Location: 21.5N 97.3W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb

And now we're 1-0-0 for the season.

In 2005 (the year of Katrina), we were using the same names. Arlene in 2005 arrived on the 8th of June. So we're 19 days behind the "record" year.

Bret in 2005 showed up on the 28th of June.

It's been 5 years and 7 months since a major has hit the CONUS (Wilma, 05). Seems strange we're using the same list again.

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Arlene on the horizon? *UPDATED*

By: hcubed, 12:30 PM GMT on June 28, 2011

"...CMC, ECMWF, GFS, NAM, ECMWF ensembles, GFS ensembles, UKMET all develop 95L into a Tropical Storm, only the NOGAPS doesn't develop 95L into Arlene and should be considered the outsider. 95L has also gotten somewhat better organized overnight, with convection developing over the low pressure area..."

And still forecast to go into Mexico.

Recon flight is out, still lloking for center.

But in the meantime, there's the latest TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...BUT THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

70%. But the HH may find enought support to go straight to Arlene. We'll wait...

UPDATE:

Based upon the latest data set coming in from the Hurricane Hunters, it now appears that a closed surface circulation has developed as several westerly wind reports are coming in, albeit weak. Given all the data available thus far, it appears that we now have Tropical Depression 1.

And then there's this:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

We'll have TD1 or Arlene by morning.

Updated: 8:22 PM GMT on June 28, 2011

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And now there's an invest...

By: hcubed, 6:25 PM GMT on June 27, 2011

AL, 95, 2011062718, , BEST, 0, 200N, 910W, 20, 0, DB

This means that that area (which was just upped by the NHC to 30% chance), now becomes the 6th invest of the season, and has the best chances of being named.

This also means that the NHC will start running models, showing projected path. As of now, we're still looking for a storm into Tampico, Mexico.

Will watch it, though.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. THESE RAINS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Up to 50%...

Updated: 11:04 AM GMT on June 28, 2011

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Latest on the Atlantic blob...

By: hcubed, 1:48 AM GMT on June 27, 2011

800 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HONDURAS ...NICARAGUA... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

So we're now up to 20 percent. Still building.

And, there's a possibility of a HH flight going out soon.

NOUS42 KNHC 261515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 26 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST IN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.0N 95.0W FOR 28/1800Z.

And the 8PM TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

LITTLE...IF ANY...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Still 20%

Updated: 2:48 AM GMT on June 27, 2011

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Main blog in never-never land, Atlantic still quiet. *EDITED*

By: hcubed, 3:54 PM GMT on June 25, 2011

The main blog drifted off into CAGW land, with this comment, among others:

"...But it is highly improbable that the remarkable extreme weather events of 2010 and 2011 could have all happened in such a short period of time without some powerful climate-altering force at work. The best science we have right now maintains that human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like CO2 are the most likely cause of such a climate-altering force..."

Yet, if CO2 is the main driver of TODAY'S extreme weather, what drove the extreme weather of the 1800's?

Couldn't have been CO2, it was much lower. And, NASA defines the term "Little Ice Age" as a cold period between 1550 AD and 1850 AD.

Since accurate records for the US began in 1895 we have no accurate record of the US climate during the LIA.

So its just as probable that the earth is rebounding from the LIA.

But on to the real important stuff:

"...The Atlantic is quiet, but several models, including the NOGAPS and GFS, are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche Tuesday or Wednesday. There will be a strong ridge of high pressure over the Gulf next week, which would tend to keep any storm that might form far to the south, with impacts limited to Mexico and perhaps South Texas..."

EDIT:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS UNLIKELY WHILE THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Updated: 3:14 AM GMT on June 26, 2011

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Models are starting to agree on possibility of Arlene.

By: hcubed, 4:04 PM GMT on June 23, 2011

"...The models are in good agreement that a disturbance will develop over the weekend and into Monday probably as an invest, then develop into either a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm as it hits the Yucatan coast before weakening as it moves over the Yucatan.

They all indicate that this system will become stronger in the GOMEX, while the CMC explodes this the GFS and NOGAPS make this a strong Tropical Storm with a good amount of rain for Mexico and Texas. The ECMWF is the only other model that develops this and does not make it a very powerful system but does develop this into a tropical cyclone and gets it stronger each run.

The models are showing what we would look for in development, consistency and intensity. I believe that this system will get going by Monday and be influenced northward over the Yucatan by the weakness in the ridge that should build back in and head towards Mexico very similar to Hurricane Alex last year.

The setup is very similar to Hurricane Alex, another reason why I think the ECMWF is too far south with this system, because you have the ridge over the Central US, a trough up in Canada and a weakness off of Florida that is going to influence this system north.

I do not think however this system will become as large or as strong as Alex did, given just how extreme the conditions have to be for a system of that intensity to really get going in the month of June however, it bears some scrutiny and we will watch it..."

Time to buckle up.

Time to put some more of the smaller stuff in the car.

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Trouble is coming...

By: hcubed, 8:03 PM GMT on June 22, 2011

"...The Atlantic is quiet, but several models, including the NOGAPS and GFS, are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula about seven days from now..."

So let's see. There's still a possibility that the month of June may see a storm (about the 29th or so.)

Trouble for us? Still far enough ahead to watch for and plan for.

Might move a few more things out to the car, and consolidate some things.

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Increase in Hurricanes likely due to increases in data gathering.

By: hcubed, 5:53 PM GMT on June 16, 2011

From here:

Link

Abstract:

"...The number of North Atlantic tropical storms lasting 2 days or less exhibits a large increase starting from the middle of the 20th century, driving the increase in recorded number of tropical storms over the past century. Here we present a set of quantitative analyses to assess whether this behavior is more likely associated with climate variability/change or with changes in observing systems. By using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century-scale record of short-lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long-term secular increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days..."

They're saying that the ability to detect storms with less that 2 days duration may be the reason the total is increasing.

Check out the first figure they show (1 of 6). Less than two days duration, large increase.

Storms longer than 2 days, no real increase.

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Adrian becomes the first Major (but not OUR first...) *Updated post*

By: hcubed, 12:50 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

Well, 94L was a bust - and we wait.

But while we wait, over in the EPAC, there's this:

...ADRIAN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...

5:00 PM PDT Wed Jun 8
Location: 13.6°N 102.0°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb

I still think we'll see our first before the end of June.

UPDATED: Adrian now a Major:

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...ADRIAN BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 104.1W
ABOUT 440 MI SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB

Updated: 7:33 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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So where is 94L to go?

By: hcubed, 12:18 AM GMT on June 06, 2011

So far, the system that is 94L really has no strong model support to become anything - bu it is something to watch:

12z CMC has its sights on western Florida (96 hours).

108 hours CMC has the storm down to 995 headed towards the Florida panhandle

12z NOGAPS (120 hours) also has its sights on western Florida. Beginning of a trend?

On the other hand, I believe our resident "expert" STORMTOP, stormkat, and recently tacoman) is back, this time using the handle of pressureman.

So expect another round of misinformation, the cutting down of other bloggers (and no admission of his past - until someone says that STORMTOP never got a forecast right - his Dean forecast was way off, for one).

Just a series of comments "I'm best and no one else knows what they're talking about".

So if you want to know the forecast direction of 94L, look to the pressureman forecasts - and go 180 degrees out. Works every time...

If we're to follow that, then we'll use this entry as a base for comparison:

1903. pressureman 2:28 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

"...94 L is running out of time before the strong shear sets back in..94L has no chance and i think that is what the NHC is thinking.. 94 L HAS USED UP HIS 9 LIVES...We wont be talking about 94L tomorrow the strong shear will rip it apart...So long live 94L..."

If the anti-pressureman model (the APM) holds true, not only will we be talking about it tomorrow, but it will be TD1 at the least.

Time will tell. Already the cutting of the other bloggers has started:

1908. pressureman 2:33 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

"...Reed what is wrong with you...cant you see the shear man thats going to rock and roll 94L..Reed i thought you learned somethig but eveidently you have learned nothing...94L is history ..."

So far, I'm right on, though.

Updated: 3:00 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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No-scale versus F-scale versus EF-scale - fair comparison?

By: hcubed, 2:05 AM GMT on June 05, 2011

On the main blog, there's a chart showing the number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. According to that chart's caption, "...There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes..."

Personally, I see a problem with the chart. Mainly, the F scale was introduced in 1971 by Tetsuya Fujita of the University of Chicago.

"...In the United States, tornadoes from 1973 onward were rated soon after occurrence whereas the scale was applied retroactively to tornado reports from 1950 through 1972 for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Tornado Database..."

The Fujita scale is effectively a damage scale, and the wind speeds associated with the damage listed aren't rigorously verified.

So, the F-rating of storms prior to '73 were determined long after the storm, and probably long after the damage was repaired/removed. How accurate were the written reports and photographs?

Second, is the Enhanced scale (EF-ratings). The Fujita scale was superseded in 2007 by the Enhanced Fujita Scale in the United States (and is biased to US construction practices).

Once again, in order to match like-to-like, the historic records SHOULD be re-examined to re-rate them to the enhanced scale. Because as the US changed since 1950, so did their construction practices and construction codes.

A building constructed in the 1950's, probably wood framed, may be no match for those built today (treated woods, braces, trusses, etc).

So to say this chart accurately reflects the number of EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes back to 1950 is, IMHO, just a LITTLE off.

Updated: 2:07 AM GMT on June 05, 2011

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).

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