hcubed's WunderBlog

AGW proponents and The List, part 5

By: hcubed, 11:16 PM GMT on October 31, 2010

7. Rising sea levels.

We’ll just make a few comments here:

"...However, for the past 6,000 years (many centuries before the first known written records), the world's sea level has been gradually approaching the level we see today. During the previous interglacial about 120,000 years ago, sea level was for a short time about 6m higher than today, as evidenced by wave-cut notches along cliffs in the Bahamas. There are also Pleistocene coral reefs left stranded about 3m above today's sea level along the southwestern coastline of West Caicos Island in the West Indies. These once-submerged reefs and nearby paleo-beach deposits are silent testimony that sea level spent enough time at that higher level to allow the reefs to grow (exactly where this extra sea water came from—Antarctica or Greenland—has not yet been determined). Similar evidence of geologically recent sea level positions is abundant around the world..."

"...Since the Last Glacial Maximum about 20,000 years ago, sea level has risen by over 120m (averaging 6 mm/yr) as a result of melting of major ice sheets. A rapid rise took place between 15,000 and 6,000 years ago at an average rate of 10 mm/yr which accounted for 90 m of the rise; thus in the period since 20,000 years BP (excluding the rapid rise from 15-6 kyr BP) the average rate was 3 mm/yr..."

What’s that current rise again? Oh, yeah, only "...1.8 mm per year for the past century, and more recently, during the satellite era of sea level measurement, at rates estimated near 2.8 ± 0.4 to 3.1 ± 0.7 mm per year..."

Seems like an average rate THAT HAS BEEN ON A CONTINUAL RISE FOR THE LAST 20,000 YEARS.

I’d be more concerned with events like the following:

"...A significant event was Meltwater pulse 1A (mwp-1A), when sea level rose approximately 20m over a 500 year period about 14,200 years ago. This is a rate of about 40 mm/yr. Recent studies suggest the primary source was meltwater from the Antarctic, perhaps causing the south-to-north cold pulse marked by the Southern Hemisphere Huelmo/Mascardi Cold Reversal, which preceded the Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas..."

So we’ve got some ways to go to reach the historical past. Certainly, the current "rise" is NOT "unprecedented".

And, since we’re talking Sea Level change, let’s mention the other possible reason: natural subsidence and erosion (Hazra, 2002).

Quick summary: Islands in India’s Sunderban chain are "next in line to be submerged beneath the rising sea".

Sugata Hazra (the Director of the School of Oceanographic Studies at Jadavpur University in nearby Kolkata) claimed that ‘relative sea levels’ in the Sunderbans were rising at 3.2mm a year, about twice the global rate.

At the same time, about 2.2mm of Hazra’s 3.2mm came from ‘natural subsidence’ and erosion.

So that leaves about 1mm that could be the cause of rising seas, and less than the 2.8 ± 0.4 to 3.1 ± 0.7 mm per year that was mentioned earlier.

Sinking land. Ask the people in Louisiana about that.

http://www.nola.com/coastal/index.ssf/2008/12/part_1_because_of_subsidence_a.html

http://www.nola.com/coastal/index.ssf/2008/12/part_2_southeast_louisiana_is.html

http://www.nola.com/coastal/index.ssf/2008/12/part_3_protecting_southeast_lo.html

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AGW proponents and The List, part 4

By: hcubed, 3:27 AM GMT on October 31, 2010

#5 & #6. Earlier springs/Later winters.

Might as well cover these two at the same time.

One of the things that determines the timing and spread of the seasons is the tilt of the earth. So we’ll borrow from other sites again.

From NASA: http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/ask_astro/answers/980211f.html

"...The bottom line for the changes from season to season is the average daytime temperature. This depends on the amount of heating that the earth receives in a single day throughout the year, and this depends on how many hours the Sun is above the horizon and exactly how long it spends at its highest elevation above the horizon. For every square meter on the surface of the earth, it will be heated by the Sun at a rate that depends on the 'cosine' of the angle of the Sun above the horizon. The higher the Sun gets, the less slanted the rays of light are that intercept each square meter, and so the efficiency with which these slanted rays can deliver energy to the surface gets better and better the higher up the Sun gets. When you add up during the daylight hours just how much heating this surface gets, it receives most of its heating from those times during the day when the Sun is the highest above the horizon. For a tilted earth, there will be some days during the year at a given latitude, where this heating rate is the highest and we call this summer. There will be other days when the Sun never gets very high above the horizon and so its heating ability is very low, and we call this winter. The details of just how hot and cold we get, and the exact dates, depend also on whether we are near water, or in the interior of a continent..."

Second, there’s this:

"...The Earth's axial tilt varies between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees, with a 42,000 year period, and at present, the tilt is decreasing. In addition to this steady decrease there are much smaller short term (18.6 years) variations, known as nutation, mainly due to the changing plane of the moon's orbit. This can shift the Earth's axial tilt by plus or minus 0.005 degree..."

"...This effect is the main cause of the seasons. Whichever hemisphere is currently tilted toward the Sun experiences more hours of sunlight each day, and the sunlight at midday also strikes the ground at an angle nearer the vertical and thus delivers more energy per unit surface area..."

So if the tilt changes, the amount of sunlight each hemisphere receives changes. So does the 'cosine' of the angle of the Sun above the horizon.

We’re currently at 23.4 degrees tilt. The tilt ranges from 22.1° and 24.5, making the max/min difference of 2.4 degrees.

Quick math makes the annual change to be 0.00005714 degrees per year. Since people argue about changes since 1870 (the start of the industrial revolution, or 140 years), this means that the earth’s tilt has DECREASED by 0.0079996 degrees (ok, we’ll round it off to 0.008 degrees).

Seems that the nutation (that 18.6 year variation of another +/- 0.005 degrees) effects the earth's tilt almost as much as a 140 year decrease in the axial tilt.

Since the "climate" is supposed to be over a 30-year period, there have close to 2 nutations (changes in the earth's tilt)

I’ll leave it to the math whizzes to prove the numbers, but the change in tilt can cause small changes in time of sunlight to the hemispheres (and amount of sunlight each pole gets). Since the scientists say that the earth’s temp has increased by only .6 degrees or so, it is POSSIBLE that some of this rise may have been caused by the change in tilt.

But for those that want to see what happens in the future, there’s this gem:

"...The relatively small range for the Earth is due to the stabilizing influence of the Moon, but it will not remain so. According to W.R. Ward, the orbit of the Moon (which is continuously increasing due to tidal effects) will have gone from the current 60 to approximately 66.5 Earth radii in about 1.5 billion years. Once this occurs, a resonance from planetary effects will follow, causing swings of the obliquity between 22° and 38°. Further, in approximately 2 billion years, when the Moon reaches a distance of 68 Earth radii, another resonance will cause even greater oscillations, between 27° and 60°. This would have extreme effects on climate..."

UPDATED: Further research using NOAA’s solar calculator.

I used the summer equinox (northern hemisphere) for both 1870 and 2010, and Biloxi MS as the observing point.

The cosine for 1870 was 0.571.

The cosine for 2010 was 0.5719.

Increasing cosine. Summer sun higher in the sky. More heating from the suns rays since the start of the industrial revolution.

Strange...

Updated: 10:49 PM GMT on October 31, 2010

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AGW proponents and The List, part 3

By: hcubed, 7:35 AM GMT on October 30, 2010

We’re still working on #4, “historic and catastrophic floods”.

Which brings to mind one question:

Just what criteria do you use to call a flood "historic" or "catastrophic"?

Loss of life? Beat the million or more loss of life in the #1 in worst floods.

Frequency? As one of the top-ten comments said, the Yangtze has had more than 1,000 recorded floods.

Financial? WU's Costliest US Weather Disaster list puts the Midwest floods of 1993 and 2008 at 5th and 9th. Katrina was listed at number 1.

Of course, WU's list only lists the Costliest US Weather disasters since 1980.

Floods are a natural and inevitable part of life along the rivers in the United States.

“…Floods are the most chronic and costly natural hazard in the United States, causing an average of 140 fatalities and $5 billion damage each year (Schildgen, 1999). Despite advances in flood science and implementation of Federal hazard-reduction policies, damage from flooding continues to escalate (Pielke and Downton, 2000). Damage from floods results from a combination of the great power of flowing water and the concentration of people and property along rivers. In the United States, about 3,800 towns and cities of more than 2,500 inhabitants are on floodplains (Miller and Miller, 2000)…”

So let’s examine the European floods.

“…As illustrated by the floods of summer 2005 and previous years, dramatic inundations are on the rise in Europe, with devastating impacts on human life, the economy and environment. The massive flooding of Germany and Poland in 2002, for example, was the worst since 1845 – and scientists predict this is only the beginning of the trend as climate change accelerates.

Flooding is on the rise not only due to climate change, however. The relentless canalisation of streams and waterways of the last 100 years has combined with urban exploitation of natural flood plains and marshlands to raise the stakes. Ground-absorption rates have declined, while run-off from melted snow and precipitation finds fewer and fewer natural channels. The result is increasing incidence of flash flooding at the local level and catastrophic-sized flooding regionally…”

And that’s some of the problem with the pro-AGW crowd.

There are some that think man-released CO2 (man's use of fossil fuels) is the reason for everything that goes wrong. They don’t think that there may have been other, plausible reason for events.

Well, that covers #4.

Next, #5 & 6 - Earlier springs/Later winters.

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AGW proponents and The List, part 2

By: hcubed, 5:14 AM GMT on October 29, 2010

I left off halfway through number 4, Historic and Catastrophic flooding.

The first part covered the 10 worst floods, worldwide.

That list didn’t cover floods caused by Hurricanes and Typhoons.

So I’ll continue there (and for verification, these lists are taken from the NHC):

a. Atlantic storms with 25 deaths or more (these are only the top ten. There have been, according to the NHC, 259 such storms between 1492-1996).

1. MAR, STE, BAR, offshore 10-16 Oct 1780, >22000
2. Galveston (Texas) 8 Sep 1900, 12000
3. FIFI: Honduras 14-19 Sep 1974, 8000-10000
4. Dominican Republic 1-6 Sep 1930, 8000
5. FLORA: Haiti, Cuba 9/30-10/8 1963, 8000
6. Pointe-a-Pitre Bay (GUA) 6 Sep 1776, >6000
7. Newfoundland Banks 9-12 Sep 1775, 4000
8. Puerto Rico, Carolinas 8-19 Aug 1899, >3433
9. FL, GUA, PR, TUR, MAR 12-17 Sep 1928, >3411
10. Cuba, CI, Jamaica 4-10 Nov 1932, >3107

Wait, that can’t be right. Hurricanes are supposed to be getting more severe, yet none of the top 10 are in the last 30 years. I know, the list stops at 1996, doesn’t include the drastic 2005 season, etc. This was the NHC’s list, remember, not mine.

BTW, the list is here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdeadlyapp1.shtml?

I’ll have to do more research and see if any of the Atlantic storms killed more than 3000 since 1997.

In the meantime, we’ll continue with the NHC’s next list:

b. Another 208 storms that caused less than 25 deaths. It would probably be better if you looked at this one yourself:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdeadlyapp2.shtml?

So the NHC is listing a total of 467 storms that caused deaths. Just a quick look at the dates shows most of them were pre-radar, pre-radio, pre-satellite.

We’ve advanced quite a bit since then.

c. Pacific storms:

1. Great Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh 1970, Bay of Bengal 500,000
2. Hooghly River Cyclone, India and Bangladesh 1737, Bay of Bengal 300,000
3. Haiphong Typhoon, Vietnam 1881, West Pacific 300,000
3. Coringa, India 1839, Bay of Bengal 300,000
5. Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh 1584, Bay of Bengal 200,000
6. Great Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh 1876, Bay of Bengal 200,000
7. Chittagong, Bangladesh 1897, Bay of Bengal 175,000
8. Super Typhoon Nina, China 1975, West Pacific 171,000
9. Cyclone 02B, Bangladesh 1991, Bay of Bengal 140,000
9. Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar 2008, Bay of Bengal 140,000
11. Great Bombay Cyclone, India 1882, Arabian Sea 100,000
12. Hakata Bay Typhoon, Japan 1281, West Pacific 65,000
13. Calcutta, India 1864, Bay of Bengal 60,000
14. Swatlow, China 1922, West Pacific 60,000
15. Barisal, Bangladesh 1822, Bay of Bengal 50,000
15. Sunderbans coast, Bangladesh 1699, Bay of Bengal 50,000
15. India 1833, Bay of Bengal 50,000
15. India 1854, Bay of Bengal 50,000
19. Bengal Cyclone, Calcutta, India 1942, Bay of Bengal 40,000
19. Bangladesh 1912, Bay of Bengal 40,000
19. Bangladesh 1919, Bay of Bengal 40,000
22. Canton, China 1862, West Pacific 37,000
23. Backerganj (Barisal), Bangladesh 1767, Bay of Bengal 30,000
24. Barisal, Bangladesh 1831, Bay of Bengal 22,000
25. Great Hurricane, Lesser Antilles Islands 1780, Atlantic 22,000
26. Devi Taluk, SE India 1977, Bay of Bengal 20,000
26. Great Coringa Cyclone, India 1789, Bay of Bengal 20,000
28. Bangladesh 1965 (11 May,) Bay of Bengal 19,279
29. Nagasaki Typhoon, Japan 1828, Western Pacific 15,000
30. Bangladesh 1965 (31 May), Bay of Bengal 12,000

You’ll notice that the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 would have come in with a tie for 30th.

You’ll also notice that most of the deaths are in areas of EXTREMELY high population. Poor construction. Few reliable means to evacuate areas.

And only a few of them are in the satellite era.

So, how will the pro-AGW respond? Probably something like "Well, the 'historic and catastrophic floods' we're talking about are the ones in Europe and the Midwest".

So stand by for part 3.

Updated: 5:20 AM GMT on October 29, 2010

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AGW proponents and the list

By: hcubed, 1:39 PM GMT on October 27, 2010

You can always tell when an AGW proponent is losing the fight: they put up "the list"

You know what list:

Disappearing glacial ice
Shrinking Arctic ice
Persistent heat waves
Historic and catastrophic flooding
Earlier springs
Later winters
Rising sea levels
Ocean acidification
Unprecedented coral bleaching

So, since hurricane season is dying down, let's look at a few of the items on "the list".

1. Disappearing glacial ice.

In order for the alarm to be raised here, they have to assume that there is a "normal" level for the glacial ice.

So, from wikipedia, the following:

"...There have been at least five major ice ages in the Earth's past. Outside these ages, the Earth seems to have been ice-free even in high latitudes..."

"...The next well-documented ice age, and probably the most severe of the last billion years, occurred from 850 to 630 million years ago (the Cryogenian period) and may have produced a Snowball Earth in which glacial ice sheets reached the equator, possibly being ended by the accumulation of greenhouse gases such as CO2 produced by volcanoes.

"...The current ice age, the Pliocene-Quaternary glaciation, started about 2.58 million years ago during the late Pliocene when the spread of ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere began. Since then, the world has seen cycles of glaciation with ice sheets advancing and retreating on 40,000- and 100,000-year time scales called glacial periods, glacials or glacial advances, and interglacial periods, interglacials or glacial retreats. The earth is currently in an interglacial, and the last glacial period ended about 10,000 years ago. All that remains of the continental ice sheets are the Greenland, Antarctic ice sheets and smaller glaciers such as on Baffin Island..."

So it's POSSIBLE that the current retreat of glaciers is normal, and not entirely caused by man's carbon output.

They normally counter with "but it's the RATE that's alarming". Without accurate measurements, they can't say if this retreat is any greater than the retreat from previous glacial periods.

2. Shrinking Arctic ice.

See answer to #1.

3. Persistent heat waves.

True, there have been some recent heat waves (in some cases, caused by blocking lows).

But none of the current heat waves come close to the record: Marble Bar in Western Australia holds the world record for the longest period of temperatures of 100 degrees F or greater - 162 days recorded in the summer of 1923 - 24.

162 days. Now THAT'S persistant.

4. Historic and catastrophic flooding.

We'll stay away from the Biblical account of the Great Flood, here.

So let's look at some of the "historic flooding".

This can be broken down into several parts.

First, lets look at the 10 worst, worldwide (excluding those as a result of typhoons or hurricanes). It also should be noted that not all of the dead were the victims of the initial floodwaters. Disease and famine that followed the disasters probably killed more than the floodwaters themselves.

1. Huang He (Yellow) River, China, 1931
Death Toll: 1,000,000 to 3,700,000

The Huang He River is prone to flooding because of the broad expanse of plain that lies around it.

2. Huang He (Yellow) River, China, 1887
Death Toll: 900,000 to 2,000,000

3. Huang He (Yellow) River, China, 1938
Death Toll: 500,000 - 900,000

The 1938 flood of the Huang He was caused by Nationalist Chinese troops under Chiang Kai-Shek when they broke the levees in an attempt to turn back advancing Japanese troops.

4. Huang He (Yellow) River, China, 1642
Death Toll: 300,000

Chinese rebels destroy the dikes along the city of Kaifeng, flooding the surrounding countryside.

5. Ru River, Banqiao Dam, China, 1975
Death Toll: 230,000

This flood was caused by the collapse of the Banquia Dam, along with several others, following a heavy rain caused by a typhoon. It is the worst dam related collapse in history.

6. Yangtze River, China, 1931
Death Toll: 145,000

Although the Huang He has caused more deaths, the Yangtze has had more than 1,000 recorded floods.

7. The Netherlands and England, 1099
Death Toll: 100,000

A combination of high tides and storms flooded the Thames and the Netherlands, killing 100,000.

8. The Netherlands, 1287
Death Toll: 50,000

A seawall on the Zuider Zee failed, flooding the low-lying polder.

9. The Neva River, Russia, 1824
Death Toll: 10,000

An ice dam clogged the Neva, flooding nearby cities.

10. The Netherlands, 1421
Death Toll: 10,000

The failure of a seawall on the Zuider Zee flooded the Dutch lowlands.

So it appears that most of these "historic" floods are in areas that are prone to flooding, or in some cases, caused by man deliberately breaking dams and levees. No GW here.

We'll stop here, for now.

Next, I'll see how many other catagories I can find for "historic flooding" (hurricane, dam collapse, etc.)

Updated: 1:40 PM GMT on October 27, 2010

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sometimes you win, sometimes you lose...

By: hcubed, 5:48 AM GMT on October 24, 2010

"...StSimonsIslandGAGuy - This blog has been banned by WunderBlogAdmin..."

Looks like some pretty darstic action to take.

Of course, kinda hard to tell if someone's been banned when they're the first on your ignore list.

I'm sure he's still posting, so will wait to see what name takes over the top of the list.

NEW EDIT: Yep, looks like he changed a name to avoid a ban:

AEKDB1990.

If you're not the same person, I'll apologize. If not, I'll be sure to let admin know about the work-around to avoid the ban.

BRB, must edit my banned list.

Updated: 3:31 AM GMT on October 25, 2010

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Richard Forms!

By: hcubed, 2:14 PM GMT on October 20, 2010

Edit:

99L turned to TD 19, which turned into TS Richard.

At least a couple of models forecast Richard to enter the Gulf, probably as a Florida hit...

Sites used:

http://www.stormpulse.com

http://stormw.wordpress.com.

Rule used is, again this:

Links to non-commercial (that is, personal) weather sites, personal sites/blogs, and especially photographers' site (even commercial) are allowed. If sites are found to contain information or discussion that goes beyond WU's rules or is found to be abusive it will be removed.

Updated: 7:29 PM GMT on October 21, 2010

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Paula's a CAT 2 Hurricane. Now at 16/9/5.

By: hcubed, 2:19 PM GMT on October 12, 2010

HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN HEADER

...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB

"...Hurricane warnings are flying along the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula for Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of this very active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Paula intensified remarkably quickly, setting a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. The first advisory for Paula was issued at 5pm EDT yesterday, and Paula strengthened into a hurricane just twelve hours later, at 5am EDT this morning. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly..."

And updated: Paula a Cat 2.

HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5

1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE PLANE FINDS PAULA WITH 100 MPH WINDS...

...THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 85.8W
ABOUT 140 MI SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB

Sites used:

http://www.stormpulse.com

http://stormw.wordpress.com.

Rule used is, again this:

Links to non-commercial (that is, personal) weather sites, personal sites/blogs, and especially photographers' site (even commercial) are allowed. If sites are found to contain information or discussion that goes beyond WU's rules or is found to be abusive it will be removed.

Updated: 6:19 PM GMT on October 12, 2010

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Paula is here. The 16th named storm. Now 16-8-5.

By: hcubed, 8:38 PM GMT on October 11, 2010

invest_RENUMBER_al982010_al182010.ren

This, along with the winds the HH found, gives us TS Paula.

Details:

TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS... HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 365 MI SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING COZUMEL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS...AND THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

Sites used:

http://www.stormpulse.com

http://stormw.wordpress.com.

Rule used is, again this:

Links to non-commercial (that is, personal) weather sites, personal sites/blogs, and especially photographers' site (even commercial) are allowed. If sites are found to contain information or discussion that goes beyond WU's rules or is found to be abusive it will be removed.

Updated: 8:45 PM GMT on October 11, 2010

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98L forming into TS Paula? (edit: Paula forms)

By: hcubed, 5:21 PM GMT on October 11, 2010

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure located just off the coast near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras has become better defined this morning. An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system to determine if a tropical depression has formed. There is a high chance, 80 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph. If a tropical cyclone forms, tropical storm watches and/or warnings would be required for portions of the coast of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, the Cayman Islands, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula during the next couple of days.

Update 1:

The computer models predict 98L will continue on a west-northwest to northwest motion through Tuesday, which would take the storm close to the coast of Belize/Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night. At that point, it is possible that a trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. will reach far enough south to pull 98L to the northeast across western Cuba and the Florida Keys by Thursday.

Update 2:

200 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Update 3:

invest_RENUMBER_al982010_al182010.ren

We have Paula.

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http://stormw.wordpress.com.

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Updated: 8:35 PM GMT on October 11, 2010

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98L still out there, and Otto has gone post-tropical.

By: hcubed, 7:42 PM GMT on October 10, 2010

INVEST 98L:
"...Recent satellite imagery (0945Z) indicates that INVEST 98L has changed little in organization As of the 06Z FTP information, the “center” of 98L was located near 12.9N:81.4W. As of the 2:00 a.m. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, the outlook had this moving NW at around 5-10 mph, however the current FTP information suggests a center relocation a little further south. Now, the caveat to this is, current satellite loop imagery may indicate that the “center” may have edged northward, and is currently trying to locate under the convection, and is noted in the shortwave loop imagery..."

:...As far as future track goes, another wait and see scenario. Given the weak steering at the moment, I believe this will continue a slow motion toward the W or WNW for the next 6-12 hours. All of the Dynamic Model guidance indicates a motion to the NW in the short to medium range, and then driving this southward into the Nicaragua/Honduras area, which is one possible scenario,however, satellite loop imagery indicates a little different flow than what current steering layers are showing, and forecast steering layers maps indicate the if this does not move inland as shown by the Dynamic Model Guidance, that the slim chance of this being drawn toward the Yucatan Channel due to a weakness forecast to be near the north central GOMEX in about 72 hours, may exist. The steering pattern as analyzed on satellite imagery paints a chaotic picture at the moment. Today however should tell us a little better on where this may move, as well as what we may be looking at as far as any further development..."

And Otto?

UPDATE:

Now post-tropical.

OCT 10 2010

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL STORM OTTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. OTTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 43 MPH...69 KM/HR. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST ON MONDAY AND A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL OTTO WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE AZORES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OTTO.

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Updated: 4:48 PM GMT on October 11, 2010

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Otto dying, 98L born.

By: hcubed, 9:19 PM GMT on October 09, 2010

HURRICANE OTTO:
"...Otto continues to speed away toward the NE, and is now encountering 40 kts of southwesterly wind shear. Otto should begin to weaken sometime later on today, as shear increases and he begins to move over cooler waters. He should begin to transition to extra-tropical in about 48 hours with a more steady rate of weakening.

98L

"...The area of disturbed weather...in the SW Caribbean Sea has been designated INVEST 98L. This area remains almost stationary, with a possible slow movement toward the west.

Current satellite loop imagery indicates an increase of convection, and noted cyclonic turning in the mid levels at the moment. The current ASCAT information, although missing a portion of that area, did not indicate any closed circulation at the surface at the moment.

Based on the current wind shear product from CIMSS, upper level winds are currently out of the SSE at around 15 kts. Vorticity maps indicate this is just enough to cause a slight tilt to the system toward the north.

Based on the current run of the shear forecast map, upper level winds are forecast to become more favorable for development over the next 2 days.

However, there is a lot of dry air for the system to contend with, and right now, it’s hard to say whether or not this system may be able to mix out the dry air or not. 700 mb humidity forecast maps do indicate moisture to advect NW during the next 96 hours, however it remains to be seen whether or not this will be enough to aid with any development. So, right now, it appears the only inhibiting factor for development will be dry air.

Based on these analyzes, I feel we could see some very slow organization from 98L over the next 72-96 hours. Global models have backed off on intensity and development of this quite a bit from the initialization a few days ago, from no development, to development of a tropical cyclone that eventually works its way into the NW Bahamas. This will remain to be seen, and is purely speculative at the moment. In fact, the current steering layers forecast maps even suggest that this system may get pulled into central America, and not even make it out of the Caribbean. So, basically we have another watch and wait scenario..."

Looking at the models, they're scattered; but a couple of them bring it in our direction.

"...NHC is only calling for a 20% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning. The GFDL and HWRF models are the most aggressive developing 98L. These models predict 98L will intensify into Tropical Storm Paula by Monday, move northwest and then north, and pass through the Cayman Islands on Monday night and Tuesday morning as a tropical storm. Paula would then hit western or central Cuba as a hurricane on Tuesday or Wednesday, brush the Florida Keys, then accelerate northeastward through the western Bahamas on Wednesday or Thursday..."

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Sub-tropical Disturbance 17 is now Sub-tropical Storm Otto (and now Hurricane Otto).

By: hcubed, 4:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2010

"...Subtropical Storm Otto, the 15th named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Otto is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern Lesser Antilles..."

"...An upper level low pressure system over Otto has pumped cold, dry air aloft into the storm, keeping it from being fully tropical. However, the upper low is weakening, and Otto has recently developed a burst of heavy thunderstorms near its center, and very tropical storm-like spiral bands are now developing to the east and south of Otto's center. Otto is fast becoming fully tropical, and will be called Tropical Storm Otto later today..."

May even get to hurricane strength by Fri.

UPDATE: on the 8th, at 11am, it was declared a hurricane.
Slim chance to become a major.

STILL no threat to the U.S.

"...An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles west of Jamaica. The disturbance has a moderate area of intense thunderstorms that brought close to two inches of rain to Grand Cayman Island over the past day. The disturbance is under a high 15 - 25 knots of wind shear, and is not likely to develop significantly today. The disturbance is headed south at 10 - 15 mph, and will bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. None of the models develop the disturbance, but it does have some potential for slow development beginning on Friday when it will be off the coast of Nicaragua, in a region of lower wind shear and higher moisture. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday..."

One to watch.

Updated: 6:34 PM GMT on October 08, 2010

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97L still hanging on.

By: hcubed, 3:50 PM GMT on October 05, 2010

"...A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) is bringing heavy rain showers and strong wind gusts to the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic. At 8:30am AST this morning, Charlotte Amalie in the Virgin Islands recorded a wind gust of 52 mph in a heavy rain squall..."

Forecast for 97L

"...Tonight and Wednesday morning, the upper-level trough to 97L's west is forecast to weaken. This will significantly reduce the amount of dry and and wind shear affecting the storm, and 97L should be able to organize into a tropical depression by Wednesday afternoon, when the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to pay their first visit. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday. The current northwest motion of 97L should keeps its center from crossing Hispaniola. All of the major computer models show development of 97L into a tropical depression by Wednesday night, just north or northeast of Hispaniola..."

All the models are now agreeing that there will be a sharp turn to the NE, curving before it gets to Grand Turk.

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Where, oh where is 97L going?

By: hcubed, 10:57 PM GMT on October 03, 2010

Now at 17.7N, 58.1W. About 889 miles away from Grand Turk.

"...1. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from the northeastern Caribbean Sea across the Leeward Islands and into the adjacent Atlantic waters. Any development should be slow to occur due to unfavorable upper-level winds, and there is a low chance, 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next day or two over the Leeward Islands, The Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico..."

From the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR:

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE ARE TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONE EAST OF THE LEEWARDS AND ANOTHER ONE WEST OF MARTINIQUE. SURFACE OBS FROM BUOYS...SHIPS AND LAND STATIONS SHOW THAT PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVR THE PAST SIX HOURS AND AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0113Z SHOWED WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA SUGGESTING THAT A BROAD WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. DEFINITELY...NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SAY THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS FORMING BUT THIS AREA SEEMS THE ONE TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION AS MAJORITY OF NCEP MEMBERS INDICATE SOMETHING DEVELOPING OUT OF THAT AREA IN THE 72-96 TIME FRAME.

And from the 8PM TWO:

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (97L) IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Updated: 3:18 AM GMT on October 04, 2010

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1AM fix on 97L

By: hcubed, 7:37 AM GMT on October 03, 2010

The 1AM fix on 97L are listed as: 17.7N, 58.1W.

Using StormPulse, the only models that initialized near the "center" (BAM series), shows the BAMM and BAMD curving over the Turks and Caicos, while the BAMS goes straight for the Keys.

All the rest appear to have started in a different place.

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Update to 97L

By: hcubed, 2:27 AM GMT on October 03, 2010

Main Blog:

"...NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past..."

Current tracks go above PR and DR. CMC, BAMM and BAMD curve sharply, while the rest point straight for the turks and Ciacos Islands.

StormW's take:

"...INVEST97L is rather disorganized to say the least. In fact, the NHC in Miami has basically circled a large area east of the northern Lesser Antilles as the area of disturbed weather.

The atmosphere at the moment is rather complex, and I’ve tried to sort things out in analysis this morning, to the best of my ability. The area designated as 97L, based on the Navy ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system), the “center” was located near 17.3N;55.1W at 12Z, or 8:00 a.m. this morning.

Close analysis of various channels of satellite loop imagery indicate to me, that the area east of there may actually be 97L, which is the area of convection noted on satellite. This area is moving toward the west, and I expect this to continue for about the next 12 hours, before it begins to feel the weakness provided by the deep trof off the U.S. east coast.

Current steering and forecast steering layers maps, along with satellite loop imagery pretty much back this up, and this area should curve away from the U.S. and Bahamas area within the next 72-96 hours. Based on the steering layers forecast maps, the CMC wants to develop this into a hurricane. Given the current and forecast shear maps, I cannot at this time, support this scenario..."

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Latest "location" of 97L

By: hcubed, 5:09 AM GMT on October 01, 2010

00 GMT 10/1/10 12.5N 53.1W 25 1009

About 1625 mi from Kingston (which along with Haiti, appears to have the current "bulls-eye").

The models might get a better handle on the track whenever they find a actual center.

Even with that, they all seem to be wanting to pass this "storm" over Cuba. From there, who knows.

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Nicole out, 97L is out there, Stormy weather ahead.

By: hcubed, 1:27 AM GMT on October 01, 2010

Well, Nicole is gone, but there's still a threat:

Disturbance 97L

"...Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning.

The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday.

97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday.

There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point..."

As for the stormy weather (or rather, the StormW weather), it can be found here:

http://stormw.wordpress.com.

BTW, links to non-commercial (that is, personal) weather sites, personal sites/blogs, and especially photographers' site (even commercial) are allowed. If sites are found to contain information or discussion that goes beyond our own rules or is found to be abusive it will be removed.

Sorry, but the rules support me...

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).