hcubed's WunderBlog

Still no reply from WunderBlogAdmin, so:

By: hcubed, 5:20 PM GMT on September 29, 2010

Linking to External Sites:

Generally, links to non-commercial (that is, personal) weather sites, personal sites/blogs, and especially photographers' site (even commercial) are allowed. If sites are found to contain information or discussion that goes beyond our own rules or is found to be abusive it will be removed.

http://stormw.wordpress.com.

Also, I've found a way to make a blog troll-free: don't allow comments.

So, I see that we've got Nicole. 14th named storm. Probably won't get much stronger than a TS, and is forecast to hit SFLA.

Gonna get messy, there...

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StormW's Blog address

By: hcubed, 7:29 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

just a test...

Updated: 8:24 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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"Community Standards" - right...

By: hcubed, 7:28 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

Linking to External Sites

"Generally, links to non-commercial (that is, personal) weather sites, personal sites/blogs, and especially photographers' site (even commercial) are allowed. If sites are found to contain information or discussion that goes beyond our own rules or is found to be abusive it will be removed."

Dr Master's "Rules of the Road" are for HIS BLOG ONLY, and don't apply here.

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Last entry dissapeared, so...

By: hcubed, 7:19 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

Well, somehow my last entry was removed.

It can't be because I listed StormW's blog address, because according to the "community standards" IT'S LEGAL.

The "blog police" are taking it upon themselves to try and purge this site from any references.

So until I hear directly from WunderAdmin, I'll continue to post this address:

http://stormw.wordpress.com/

If you self-appointed people don't like it, take it up with the person who WROTE the rules.

Or at least man up and E-mail me.

And we've all seen recently just how "private" those e-mails are...

Updated: 7:22 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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A break in activity...

By: hcubed, 12:35 PM GMT on September 27, 2010

As a public service, I'll be posting StormW's address with each blog listing.

http://palmharborforecastcenter.wordpress.com

Now, for the news:

"...Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five (major) hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days..."

Updated: 1:08 PM GMT on September 28, 2010

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Matthew gone, new threat developing

By: hcubed, 10:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

As a public service, I'll be posting StormW's address with each blog listing.

http://palmharborforecastcenter.wordpress.com

Now, for the news:

"...Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days..."

"...Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning..."

"...A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today...The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm.

"At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas.

"The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday..."

And the watch continues.

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Lisa becomes Hurricane, Matthew onshore.

By: hcubed, 11:25 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

As a public service, I'll be posting StormW's address with each blog listing.

http://palmharborforecastcenter.wordpress.com

Now, for the news:

"...Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic... Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east.

Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas..."

No worries there.

"...Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides...

No threat to us yet...

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We have a TD...

By: hcubed, 6:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2010

It looks like 95L has just gotten a renumber:

09/23/2010 05:16PM 2,113 invest_RENUMBER_al952010_al152010.ren

This is now TD15.

EDIT:

And it has a name...

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 2

500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 435 MI E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

EDIT: As a public service, I'll be posting StormW's address with each blog listing.

http://palmharborforecastcenter.wordpress.com

Updated: 11:53 AM GMT on September 24, 2010

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The watch continues.

By: hcubed, 2:44 AM GMT on September 23, 2010

So while the watch continues, the prep continues.

Today, added an "extra feature" to the sliding doors on the van.

With the door open, I put a stick-on red reflector on the rear of the door. That way, if we're parked, and open the side door, you'd be able to see the reflector from the rear.

Door closed, reflector hidden.

Only cost a couple of bucks, too...



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Igor passes Bermuda, Julia dies, and Lisa is born.

By: hcubed, 12:33 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

The core of Category 1 Hurricane Igor passed approximately 40 miles west of Bermuda at 11 pm AST last night, bringing winds just below hurricane force to the island. Winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 68 mph, gusting to 93 mph, at 11:22 pm AST last night.

Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Tuesday.

And 94L became Lisa last night.

Add to this, the model forecast of some storm headed our way in the next week, and we may see Matthew.

That will make the 6th named storm we've seen in Sept. The peak.

A smaller peak is around the 10th of Oct.

EDIT: INVEST 95L has just been designated. This is the stuff in the Caribbean. Matthew?

Updated: 2:11 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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IGOR hits Bermuda, 94L could become a player...

By: hcubed, 10:20 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Well Bermuda is feeling the effects of Igor, and hopefully, no on will lose their lives as a result.

Stuff can be rebuilt, and lives will go on.

Meantime, 94L is developing:

From StormW's blog:

http://palmharborforecastcenter.wordpress.com

"...INVEST 94L continues to become better organized, and is displaying a tight circulation and is beginning to show some slight banding features.

Based on the current and forecast wind shear products, I am continuing to call for further development of this system, and would not be surprised to see another tropical depression within the next 48 hours. The wind shear forecast calls for a conducive environment for the next 72-96 hours. Based on this, should a depression form, I will not rule out another tropical storm.

Analysis of the steering layers forecast maps indicate that this system should stall in about 24 hours, and remain quasi-stationary for about 24-36 hours, before heading in a general WNW direction. Thereafter, another slow down in forward speed is called for, with an eventual turn toward the north. Steering right now suggests this should be carried north, and may eventually head toward the NNE..."

Doesn't appear to be a threat for us.

Updated: 2:11 AM GMT on September 20, 2010

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Hurricane prep continues.

By: hcubed, 11:32 PM GMT on September 18, 2010

"...Hurricane Karl dissipated early this morning over the high mountains east of Mexico City. Karl made landfall yesterday on the Mexican coast about ten miles northwest of Veracruz at 1pm EDT, as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds..."

"...The Hurricane Hunters just arrived in Hurricane Igor, and found that the inner 23-mile wide eyewall had collapsed. Igor now has a huge 92-mile wide eye, thanks to this eyewall replacement cycle. As is usually the case in eyewall replacement cycles, the peak winds of the hurricane have decreased, but hurricane force winds are now spread out over a larger area. Top winds at the surface as seen by the SFMR instrument were Category 1 strength, 82 mph, though the aircraft did see 130 mph winds at 10,000 feet, which suggests the surface winds should be of Category 3 strength, 115 mph...Hurricane warnings are flying for Bermuda..."

"...A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression early next week..."

Elsewhere in the tropics:

"...An area of disturbed weather off the coast of South Texas is due to an region of upper level winds that are spreading out, encouraging thunderstorm updrafts to pull more air aloft. I don't expect this region to develop due to its close proximity to the coast. The NOGAPS model is predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now. The GFS model has backed off developing anything in the Caribbean next week..."

Well, lots of activity, not much for us.

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Back to storm prep...

By: hcubed, 2:35 AM GMT on September 18, 2010

Well, the trips back into Dr Master's blog are strange indeed.

Active admin presence dropping ANYTHING that goes away from tropic weather discussion.

Like I said, the soul is gone.

So, since discussions about hurricane prep would NOT be allowed in the main blog, I'll visit to see what's up, but will probably not post there again.

Let them have it.

EDIT: The "night crew" is on. The coffee and donuts are being passed around, jokes are being told, people are having fun...

Just wait till the morning, and admin comes back.

Definitely not tropical talk. Lots of posts will disappear, IMO.

Oh well, it's their blog.

Re-EDIT:

Well, admin (or whoever is running the blog) has cleaned up during the "night crew", too.

Blog's almost boring now. Several posters, all posting the same info, giving the same "IMO" commentary.

People appear to be afraid to post ANYTHING at all, not sure if their posts will survive. If their posts are going to be deleted without warning, why bother posting anything?

Updated: 8:44 AM GMT on September 18, 2010

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Continuing the lunacy...

By: hcubed, 8:08 PM GMT on September 16, 2010

Dr Master's blog, to me, is in a "death spiral".

1. The use of the quote feature renders useless the ignore function.

2. The ignore feature is useless, as is the "ban" feature. People are able to get back on, literally within hours, and continue their idiotic posts.

3. Abuse of a "new" feature, that allows a group of people to place multiple flags on a post, moving it to the "violation of community standards" bin. And, since some people have multiple ID's, maybe one person can cause the posts to disappear.

4. People more concerned by their QUANTITY of posts, rather than their QUALITY of posts.

What was a decent place, allowing people to come and get the "between the reports" info, has turned into a free-for-all mud pit.

It appears the inmates have taken over the asylum.

I'm beginning to think along the lines of StormW. LET the blog die. No wonder some are thinking about "taking the blog back".

Better yet, start a petition to make tacoman a featured blogger. That would teach 'em...

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Karl's in the BOC

By: hcubed, 4:33 PM GMT on September 16, 2010

TROPICAL STORM KARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER...SPECIAL ADVISORY FORTHCOMING...

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM KARL HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEAR 65 MPH AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986 MB.

A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY IN LIEU OF THE 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 92.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB

Forecast tracks still show a landfall in Mexico.

At 92.1, is west of us. So we'd have to see North and EAST to be in danger.

But might become the 6th hurricane today.

Enough time to become a Major? We'll see.

Updated: 4:34 PM GMT on September 16, 2010

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Blog insanity

By: hcubed, 2:35 AM GMT on September 16, 2010

Well, the blog has hit a new low.

People continue to quote and idolize the trolls, the wannabe forecasters, and those who have gotten one forecast right in the past five years.

Yet the best get ridden, ridiculed and rebuffed. Finally, one has had enough.

1872. StormW 8:32 PM CDT on September 15, 2010

"Good evening all!

For those who wish to follow my forecasts further, please email me at kainawalsh@yahoo.com.

It is my intention to leave this zoo, and close my account."

So StormW leaves, while tacoman stays.

I hope that nobody dies or loses their stuff because they decide to believe the "forecasts" of tacoman.

Ever wonder why tacoman stopped blogging under his old name of STORMTOP? Because people stopped listening.

Like I said, insanity...

Updated: 2:38 AM GMT on September 16, 2010

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Igor, Julia and Karl. THREE STORMS???

By: hcubed, 2:48 AM GMT on September 15, 2010

Well, Karl got named today.

Might just make it to Cat 1 before landfall.

And: JULIA INTENSIFIES TO CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 30.9W
ABOUT 450 MI WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB

And: Igor is flirting with Cat 5 strength.

1100 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

...IGOR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 53.9W
ABOUT 605 MI E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1140 MI SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB

Updated: 2:50 AM GMT on September 15, 2010

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92L still a threat to develop; Igor a hurricane; TD 12 forming near Africa

By: hcubed, 10:35 PM GMT on September 12, 2010

So the newest:

Tropical disturbance (92L) is over the Central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic, and remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression.

Hurricane hunters will be flying in to check.

Hurricane Igor appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come.

According to first look, Igor is up to 105mph, a cat 2.

Tropical Depression Twelve (TD12) formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa this morning, and is already affecting the Cape Verdes with winds near tropical storm strength; sustained winds of 35 mph were recorded in the northwest Cape Verdes this morning.

May already be a TS.

Edited: TD12 is now named Julia. Forecast to become a hurricane.

Second edit: the US is now safe:

101. tacoman 9:19 AM CDT on September 13, 2010

reed igor is headed out to sea cant you see the strong trof off the east coast..2 fish storms igor and julia...no chance igor comes withing 500 miles of the us coastline...

...and that's probably written in stone.

Updated: 4:32 PM GMT on September 13, 2010

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"I hear that train a' comin..."

By: hcubed, 6:48 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

"...A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning..."

"...The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days..."

"...I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday..."

"...I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night..."

Well, that's one...

"...Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come..."

"...In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada..."

And that's two...

"...A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday..."

And that's three.

It is the peak, you know...

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Cue the monster (enters, stage left)

By: hcubed, 1:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2010

"...OVER THE NEXT 6-8 DAYS...WE`LL BE ALSO WATCHING WHAT IS LIKELY TO BECOME A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL CAPE VERDE HURRICANE TO BE NAMED "IGOR" AS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTING OVR THE PAST SVRL DAYS AND WHICH NHC HAS DESIGNATED AS INVEST 91L WITH A 50% CHANCE OF TC FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.."

Just in time for the "peak" of the season.

As of September 8, 2010 there have been 22 invests, 11 have become Depressions, 9 of those named storms, 3 of those Hurricanes and of course 2 Majors. I forecast 45 invests.

On June 08, 2010, I raised my forecast to 18/11/5.

To make that, we'll need 9 more named, 8 of which have to be hurricanes, and three of them majors.

Not sure about that...

Updated: 5:45 PM GMT on September 08, 2010

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Slight break in activity. Everybody take a breath...

By: hcubed, 8:16 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

"...For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm..."

But since the season really reaches it's peak on the 10th, and threats of storms in the GOM and Gaston's possible regeneration are looming on the horizon, it's time to take stock of where you are.

And where you want to be.

The TV stations are replaying the aftermath of Katrina, and those who stayed behind.

25 years ago, Elena hit near the peak of the season (well, 8 days away). So there is still a chance that we'll be hit.

The longer we go without a storm, the more we want to think the season is over. But several times there has been a hurricane hitting the US during November.

So don't lose sight of possible trouble.

BE PREPARED.

Updated: 8:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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Gulf coast is clear - for now...

By: hcubed, 7:21 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

It appears that both Earl and Fiona are going to be taking paths that do not bring them into the gulf.

98L (future Gaston), however, is another story.

Flatter path, hot waters, a high setting up to keep it low - all signs that this may be "the one".

Of course they said the same about Earl and Fiona.

So I'll watch. And wait.

Updated: 7:26 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).