hcubed's WunderBlog

We how have Hurricane Earl

By: hcubed, 6:48 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.

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The triplets are born.

By: hcubed, 5:46 PM GMT on August 26, 2010

So now there is Cat 2 (possibly cat 3) Danielle, TS Earl, and 97L (pre-Fiona).

Change to posts. No full bulletins, just summaries.

As long as numbers decrease, keep.

Numbers start rising, drop.

Leave your sanity at the door, don't forget to pick it up as you leave.

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Danielle now a hurricane...

By: hcubed, 7:12 PM GMT on August 23, 2010

AL, 06, 2010082318, 152N, 407W, 65, 987, HU

So now we wait for the NHC to catch up.

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Danielle is coming our way...

By: hcubed, 10:37 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5

500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 35.1W
ABOUT 725 MI W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE.

AT 2100 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST. DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

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95L - First Cape Verde Monster?

By: hcubed, 1:44 AM GMT on August 21, 2010

"...A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic about 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands was designated Invest 95L by NHC this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to build. The wave is in a moist environment over SSTs that are at near record warmth (28°C). The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. As 95L moves away from Africa, wind shear will decrease, and system will probably develop into a tropical depression by Sunday or Monday. NHC is giving 95L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning..."

One to watch - again...

Also, since the last few blogs by Dr Masters were about the Moscow heatwave, it only seems fair that the record for the longest heatwave be listed:

"...The world record for the longest sequence of days above 100° Fahrenheit (or 37.8° on the Celsius scale) is held by Marble Bar in the inland Pilbara district of Western Australia. The temperature, measured under standard exposure conditions, reached or exceeded the century mark every day from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, a total of 160 days..."

The CO2 was a lot lower then, too...

For those who need links:

http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/temp1.htm

Updated: 8:46 AM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Gearing up...

By: hcubed, 8:34 PM GMT on August 17, 2010

Since the ex-TD5 didn't re-form, and the "next" monster will be here "next week", now seemed like a good time for the base (Keesler) to practice.

This morning, they started an ***exercise***, going into HURCON 4 (hurricane force winds expected within 72 hrs.)

Throughout the week, they'll ramp up, checking their lists, and seeing what the weak areas are.

Next will be HURCON 3, Hurricane within 48 hrs.

Just in case...

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Re-development of TD5?

By: hcubed, 11:33 PM GMT on August 15, 2010

"...The remnants of Tropical Depression Five are still spinning over southwestern Georgia, and the storm is headed southwards towards the Gulf of Mexico, where redevelopment into a tropical depression could occur by Tuesday.

Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense thunderstorms has developed over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity continues to intensify and expand in areal coverage. Most of the heavy rain is offshore, but I expect heavy rains will spread to the Florida Panhandle late this afternoon. These heavy rains will likely spread to coastal regions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana by Monday, as the center of ex-TD 5 approaches the coast and the storm begins to wind up again.

By Tuesday, the GFS and HWRF models predict that the center will move off the coast, and TD 5 will be reborn again. The system may have enough time over water to become a weak tropical storm before making landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning over Southeast Louisiana.

Wind shear is currently low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, over the next three days, favoring re-development of TD 5. NHC is giving a 20% chance that TD 5 will regenerate into a tropical depression by 8am EDT Tuesday. I think the odds are higher than this, perhaps 40%..."

Looks like a return trip for us. More rain...

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"Analog" years, part 2 -1985 - Danny

By: hcubed, 1:57 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

As a review, I'm going back over the first of my hurricane seasons associated with my move to Mississippi - 1985.

In part 1, I mentioned TS Ana, Hurricane Bob and Hurricane Claudette.

For Danny, I want to see what it would have looked like if there had been WU, fast internet connections, and a link to real-time.

So I'll make posts here as we would have seen them - from Danny's formation to it's landfall, and inland.

*** THESE ARE NOT REAL TIME REPORTS, THEY'RE 1985 ***

Updated: 2:10 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

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"Analog" years

By: hcubed, 2:54 PM GMT on August 12, 2010

Since TD5 is gone, and no real threat to the area for a week or so (according to the experts), I thought I'd discuss my "analog" year - the first year I encountered the beauty and terror of Hurricanes.

So consider this "part 1", as I might have to break it up to make room for real world announcements.

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Still a TD, but a little weaker.

By: hcubed, 6:02 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

TD 5 still heading in our direction, but the thing looks sick.

The NHC (and some models) show a POSSIBILITY of strength, but must watch. Not forecasted to be much stronger than a TS.

Updated: 6:04 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

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94L becomes TD5

By: hcubed, 1:21 AM GMT on August 11, 2010

The former 94L has been declared as TD5.

Heading for our area, so a new post to keep track.

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New Threat, new entry.

By: hcubed, 4:37 PM GMT on August 10, 2010

Seems that the Gulf Cost will get hit this week by a high TS/minimal Hurricane.

Model tracks put us in the "cone", but until the NHC lists it as a TS, their plots aren't out.

Updated: 4:37 PM GMT on August 10, 2010

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Colin gone (again) - but there's still a lot of posibilities...

By: hcubed, 12:46 PM GMT on August 09, 2010

Colin downgraded again, and two other areas of interest.

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Colin re-emerges, and brings his friends...

By: hcubed, 5:41 AM GMT on August 06, 2010

Colin is back up to TS strength.

Also there is now 92L and 93L.

Start of the season's heat.

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Colin is here (but not coming here - I hope...)

By: hcubed, 11:57 AM GMT on August 03, 2010

Well, it appears we now have Colin. The 3rd named storm of the 2010 season, and the first true Cape Verde storm of the year.

Current tracks are predicting it to curve east of the islands (go north of PR).

So far, no threat to us.

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New player in town. Prepare to track...

By: hcubed, 7:16 PM GMT on August 02, 2010

Well, we have our fourth TD.

First models have it recurving, turning before it hits Bahamas.

Misses the islands.

So we watch another track, watching the models.

Updated: 7:23 PM GMT on August 02, 2010

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Second third of the season, entering "the peak"...

By: hcubed, 8:27 AM GMT on August 01, 2010

Well, June and July are done.

Three storms down. Alex, Bonnie and a TD. 11 invests so far.

And now, there's a string of storms rolling off the coast of Africa.

For now, we'll keep an eye on 91L, which will probably be a TD by Monday. Might become Colin. Might become a Major.

Might just fizzle out.

Still ready...

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About hcubed

Living in Biloxi MS, have been here since '85 (first Hurricane was Elena).