The Climate Lottery Blog
Climate Lottery- The Eighth Drawing- Lottery Numbers for Winter 2012/2013
Posted by: guywalton, 12:24 AM GMT on March 17, 2013 +0
The winning Climate Lottery numbers for winter (DEC/JAN/FEB) 2012/2013 were 101/81/71 with a Power Ball number of 100.

The Power Ball (or overall National Climatic Data Center Ranking) number for winter 2012/2013 for the lower 48 states was the 20th warmest for any winter on record. A ranking of 1 would have been the coldest possible ranking. The National Climatic Data Center has been ranking months, seasons and years from 1 to 118 since 1895 with 1 being the coldest possible temperature average ranking and 118 being the warmest possible temperature average through 2012.
All rankings for 2013 will have a range of 1-119 with the addition of another year’s worth of data. In the Climate Lottery game, I’ve defined each individual lottery number as rankings for each month for the lower 48 states, Power Ball numbers as those for each season, and Mega Ball numbers as those for each year. Once again this winter the Climate Lottery game was rigged towards those higher number rankings.

Well, let’s see what those Climate Lottery numbers look like for spring 2013. I wonder if we will ever see in the future a “gotcha” set of three months when temperatures are below average for an entire season across the lower 48 states. Unlike last time pick three numbers between 1 and 119 (with one representing the coldest possible ranking and 119 being the highest possible ranking) for MAR 2013, APR 2013, and May 2013. Also pick a “Power Ball” or overall ranking number for spring 2013 between 1 and 119. If you wish to play along, please give your picks in the reply section to this blog by April 1st 2013. As usual, if you wait until just before April 1st to make your picks, you can get an educated guess as to what the ranking for March will be (and also a heads-up guess for April).

References to all of my blog posts can be found in my last seasonal post for fall 2012 at:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/guywalton/commen t.html?entrynum=0


Once again, the winter season, as a whole, was above long term averages for the lower 48 states. I’ll reiterate once more (yep, I’m getting repetitive again) that due to climate change it is unlikely for a land area the size of the contiguous United States to have below average temperatures for an entire season. I’m not going to state that there will NEVER AGAIN be another below average season for the United States, but due to man induced global warming, the chances for an entire season of below average conditions is becoming much less likely. The whole point of these posts is to demonstrate how skewed temperatures have become towards warmth due to climate change…and they were much skewed towards warmth again during the winter. As stated in my fourth seasonal post, only an increase in volcanic activity from what is presently occurring at the moment can significantly slow the overall warming trend of the planet. What has happened so far this year is yet more proof of the climate dice being loaded for warmth in the United States.

Here’s a breakdown of the National Climatic Center’s ranking numbers for the winter of 2012/2013 and February 2013:


For the winter of 2012/2013 the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 100 (out of 118):





Despite a barrage of winter storms temperatures were well above average for most of the U.S. In Atlanta, where I live, the temperature officially failed to get below 25 for the entire season…amazing since Atlanta sees minimums in the teens for many nights during a typical winter. The Southwest was colder than average due to record setting cold weather in December and cold conditions in February. Looking at the map you can pick out each individual state ranking. Again the overall ranking of 100 is not an average of the 48 individual state rankings; rather the ranking is a comparison of temperature averages for the lower 48 states for the winter since 1895.

In February the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 71 (out of 119):




The ball landing out of the Climate Lottery hopper ended up near average for February. Cold, dry conditions persisted in the Southwest.

The winter of 2012/2013 was colder and snowier than that of the almost “winterless” 2011/2012, but temperatures continued to be above long term averages. I’m keeping the format on all of my charts the same as on the last three posts. The average ranking for 2012 is 59 since the coldest ranking would be 1 and the hottest would be 118. I have color coded all rankings for this post at or below 38 blue and all those at or above 79 red with rankings + or – 19 from the median value of 59 black.

The following are the rankings so far for the 2010’s:




Also, for reference, the following are “Power-Ball” and “Mega-Ball” ranking numbers for 2000 to the present.
Please see my prior posts for more charts dating back to 1900. Seasonal or Power-Ball rankings for winter are those for DEC/JAN/FEB, spring are those for MAR/APR/MAY, summer is JUN/JUL/AUG, and fall is SEP/OCT/NOV. Also, keep in mind that NCDC rankings for seasons compare seasons and are not merely an average of rankings of individual months of a season or year.







Notice that since the start of 2000 only five out of fifty-three seasons have been below average or “blue”. Thirty-eight out of the fifty-three seasons since 2000 have been “red” or above average. Indeed, the climate dice (and climate lottery hopper) are very much loaded for above average temperatures for the lower 48 states looking at recent history.
I hope that everyone will have a good spring.

Guy Walton
Lead Forecaster, the Weather Channel
“That Climate Guy”
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Climate Lottery- Ranking for January 2013
Posted by: guywalton, 3:02 AM GMT on February 17, 2013 +1
So far, for the winter of 2012/2013, the winning lottery numbers for December 2012 were 109 and for January 2013 81.

The National Climatic Data Center has been ranking months, seasons and years from 1 to 119 since 1895 with 1 being the coldest possible temperature average ranking and 119 being the warmest possible temperature average during 2013. In the Climate Lottery game, I’ve defined each individual lottery number as rankings for each month for the...
Updated: 3:30 AM GMT on February 17, 2013   Permalink | A A A
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Climate Lottery- Mega Ball Ranking of 2012
Posted by: guywalton, 2:34 AM GMT on February 17, 2013 +2
The winning Mega Ball number for 2012 was 118, and for December 2012 the winning Climate Lottery Pick number was 109.

The Mega Ball lottery pick (or overall National Climatic Data Center Ranking) number for 2012 came up as 118 representing the warmest year in history for the United States. The National Climatic Data Center has been ranking months, seasons and years from 1 to 118 since 1895 with 1 being the coldest possible temperature average ranking and...
Updated: 2:56 AM GMT on February 17, 2013   Permalink | A A A
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Climate Dice- The Seventh Roll: Lottery Numbers For Fall 2012
Posted by: guywalton, 7:39 PM GMT on January 10, 2013 +0
The winning Climate Lottery numbers for fall (SEP/OCT/NOV) 2012 were 101/44/99, and the Power Ball number was 98

The Power Ball (or overall National Climatic Data Center Ranking) number for fall 2012 came up as 98, which was the 21st warmest for any fall on record for the lower 48 states. A ranking of 1 would have been the coldest possible ranking. The National Climatic Data Center has been ranking months, seasons and years from 1 to 118 since 1895 with 1...
Categories:Climate Change
Updated: 6:51 AM GMT on January 13, 2013   Permalink | A A A
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Guy Walton is a Lead Forecaster at The Weather Channel

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