Update: The Tropics Are Quiet

By: galvestonhurricane , 2:41 AM GMT on July 17, 2013

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Welcome to my blog! Feel free to discuss the tropics, local weather, or anything else!


We are still stuck in the dry phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The sinking motion of the atmosphere is suppressing tropical convection, which greatly reduces the possibility of tropical cyclone genesis. The MJO should become favorable within the next two weeks. ENSO conditions right now indicate neutral conditions in the Northern Hemisphere through the fall since equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near average across the western and central Pacific Ocean and below average across the eastern Pacific.

This hurricane season seems to be setting up in a very similar way to the Atlantic hurricane season of 2004, and I think we could have a large number of storms in a short period of time around late August to early September. The SSTs in the Caribbean are extremely hot right now and thus favorable for development. Therefore, in the next few weeks, we need to watch the Caribbean for development. The Gulf of Mexico and stalled fronts off the East Coast also need to be watched for development as we wait for the Cape Verde season to really get going in the coming weeks.

Michael















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6. galvestonhurricane
6:12 AM GMT on September 06, 2013
I'm hoping to update the blog soon with my analysis of the season so far.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 541
5. galvestonhurricane
1:14 AM GMT on July 22, 2013
We received only about two inches of rain in the past week. Unfortunately, that won't help the slowly intensifying drought. Hope you are doing well!
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 541
4. Matt74
1:06 AM GMT on July 22, 2013
Actually it has been very scattered the past few days. Not much at all. Today we had a good soaking. About 2 inches here in mid county. That should help the grass grow a little. Hope you got some too my friend.
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
3. galvestonhurricane
2:49 AM GMT on July 18, 2013
Thank you both for the kind comments! I am actually in Friendswood in NW Galveston County. Matt, have you received much rain the past few days?
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 541
2. Matt74
4:38 AM GMT on July 17, 2013
Hey Galveston. Nice job. I've seen your input on Masters blog and you are very knowledgeable. Thanks for helping amateurs like myself learn. I'm just a little ways away from Galveston. Jefferson county.
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
1. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:06 AM GMT on July 17, 2013
Great job!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4754

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About galvestonhurricane

I am a freshman at the University of Texas. I have been interested in meteorology my whole life, and I learned a lot from Hurricanes Ike and Rita.

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