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Update: The Tropics Are Quiet
By: galvestonhurricane , 2:41 AM GMT on July 17, 2013
Welcome to my blog! Feel free to discuss the tropics, local weather, or anything else!
We are still stuck in the dry phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The sinking motion of the atmosphere is suppressing tropical convection, which greatly reduces the possibility of tropical cyclone genesis. The MJO should become favorable within the next two weeks. ENSO conditions right now indicate neutral conditions in the Northern Hemisphere through the fall since equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near average across the western and central Pacific Ocean and below average across the eastern Pacific.
This hurricane season seems to be setting up in a very similar way to the Atlantic hurricane season of 2004, and I think we could have a large number of storms in a short period of time around late August to early September. The SSTs in the Caribbean are extremely hot right now and thus favorable for development. Therefore, in the next few weeks, we need to watch the Caribbean for development. The Gulf of Mexico and stalled fronts off the East Coast also need to be watched for development as we wait for the Cape Verde season to really get going in the coming weeks.
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