The little model who cried wolf

By: esteban9 , 8:17 AM GMT on April 17, 2010

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Since the models over-forecast precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday, I believed that they would again overdo it yesterday. Well, this time when they "cried wolf," there was indeed a wolf. Although the precipitation band(s) that came through the western provinces late yesterday evening had unimpressive radar intensities, they packed a wallop in terms of rainfall rates. Sevilla recorded 23.4 mm before midnight, and somewhere in the sierra of northwest Andalucia, almost 77 mm fell - see yesterday's precipitation map for the Guadalquivir Basin. Well, at least the forecasts of rain confined mainly to the western half of Andalucia has been accurate. Nevertheless, Malaga province is being belted by strong thunderstorms at present (Malaga, of course, straddles the fence between western and eastern Andalucia).

Indeed, if I had been around the computer to check on yesteday's noon balloon sounding from Gibraltar, I would have shed my aforementioned disbelief in short order. This sounding showed easily the most unstable atmosphere so far this year. I did allude to this instability yesterday morning, but its magnitude increased dramatically by midday, to levels that any "storm chaser" in the middle USA would be excited about. And, there was little change in these conditions shown by the midnight sounding last night. Therefore, it is clear that we will again see localized heavy thunderstorms throughout the western half of the region, and even some in the east. Mountainous areas, since they generate lift, will again be foci for these tormentas.

Beyond today, previous outlooks seem on track, with the low pressure center moving across the peninsula tomorrow and trggering more widespread showers and thunderstorms, including the eastern provinces. Then, a nice sunny break for Monday and the "alumbrao" (Tuesday in Sevilla). Alas, the "inching" of the models toward more rain for the remainder of the Feria has become more of a "walk." So, as was quoted here before, keep those umbrellas handy if you're planning to attend the festivities!

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About esteban9

Musings and forecasts of Andalusian weather and climate, from a veteran meteorologist.

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