Spring(s) its surprises

By: esteban9 , 7:39 AM GMT on April 12, 2010

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Today should be the last day with predominantly sunny skies for some time, as cloudiness increases tomorrow ahead of the cyclone to the west of Iberia. The western provinces have low stratus clouds this morning, but these should burn off around midday.

The cyclone does not appear to be strong in the sense of high rainfall rates; nevertheless, the remarkable aspect of the storm is its longevity. Since it is isolated from the principal polar jet stream and is embedded in a "stagnant" flow regime, it is forecast to just spin in an almost stationary position to our west until it finally weakens next Monday. This means that it have ample time to draw warm moist air ahead of it, dropping on-and-off precipitation to mainly the western half of Andalucia for for five days! As testament to the prolonged nature of the precipitation, a couple models show maximum precipitation accumulations well over 100 mm by this weekend, around the Sierra de Aracena. If so, this storm would be worthy of being classed with some of the stronger storms of the past winter...veremos a ver.

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About esteban9

Musings and forecasts of Andalusian weather and climate, from a veteran meteorologist.

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