Apologies for the quiet in this space thus far this winter. I guess I have high threshold of interest these days (and other business to attend). Anyway, while not exactly a droughty late fall/early winter, most precipitation has been relatively well spread out in time, from primarily weak storms. Most have not been associated with the main polar jet stream, which has stayed well north of Andalucía. This will change, beginning Monday.
A large and vigorous cyclone is developing over the Azores, and is forecast to move east over the region beginning tomorrow. Like the spokes of a wheel, bands of rain will rotate ahead of the main low pressure center from west to east in cycles. The first such spoke, a weak "precursor," will come in tomorrow morning. This will be a small taste of what is in store for the rest of the week. A larger patch of rain enters Monday, with heavy rains likely Tuesday-Wednesday. A brief respite is possible Thursday night - Friday morning, followed by another heavy dose Friday-Saturday.
The midweek storm will be characterized by a polar jet stream dropping well into Northwest Africa, which is very far south. This means that a strong southerly air stream will tap ample moisture from the area near the Canary Islands. The storm later in the week will be associated more with a strong westerly jet streak, which will bring wind along with rain.
The significant tale herein may be the accumulation of precipitation over the entire week. By week's end, there may be some flooding problems in local areas, in spite of the recent relative dryness. In any event, the coming week looks to have the most intense storms of the 2012-2013 cool season for southern Iberia. My interest is finally piqued!