Musings and forecasts of Andalusian weather and climate, from a veteran meteorologist.
By: esteban9, 7:38 AM GMT on April 04, 2012
Well, the computer models are now backing off on the major rainfall event from Thursday into Friday. There will still be rain, but if one follows these models, amounts will be considerably lighter and the Good Friday Semana Santa events saved. This is consonant with the weak upper-level jet stream attending the low pressure system. Nevertheless, models often undergo changes in their forecasts over time, so this event still bears watching.
In the longer term, this low actually recedes westward, well out into the Atlantic (in meteorological parlance, it "retrogrades."). However, the models have difficulty in forecasting such behavior, so again, this will have to be monitored. In any event, we seem to have replaced the high pressure and fair weather of winter with unstable, cloudy and showery conditions of spring. At least for the coming week. I'm sure the granjeros are grateful...
By: esteban9, 8:26 AM GMT on April 02, 2012
Yesterday's outlook appears to be on track, with showers all week, primarily in the west and during afternoons. Thursday and Friday still look to have the heavier precipitation. Given that half the Semana Santa "pasos" were curtailed in Sevilla yesterday by relatively light showers, this doesn't bode well for the big end-of-the-week events. Maybe this folkloric climatology of Semana Santa rain has something to it!
By: esteban9, 11:01 AM GMT on April 01, 2012
Just a brief note for everyone looking to attend Semana Santa activities this week.
The current low pressure system bringing showers mainly to western Andalucía is very weak. However, it is nearly stationary and it appears that it will cause showers all week. The risk of showers will be greater in the afternoons, as the ground heats and convective clouds form. All this activity continues to appear weak, however, until Thursday - Friday. At that time, a reinforcement of the upper low drops southwest from the British Isles, bringing with it the threat of heavier and steadier rain. If this comes about, the big day of Good Friday might be at risk of cancellation, as was the case last year.
On the other hand, the rain is sorely needed after a record dry winter. So, take your preference and stay tuned for updates this week.