Musings and forecasts of Andalusian weather and climate, from a veteran meteorologist.
By: esteban9, 7:48 AM GMT on March 19, 2012
While the other computer models have come 'round toward agreeing with the one mentioned in yesterday's blog, their solutions all point to confinement of the rain to the eastern half of Andalucía. The upper, cold low will settle over western Spain, but its "business end" will be to the east. The rain threat should begin in earnest tomorrow afternoon, and end on Wednesday. Although short lived and likely not heavy, the showers will be welcome to the agricultural sector of the East.
Western Andalucía will primarily seen cooler and breezy conditions over the same period.
By: esteban9, 8:08 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
An upper-level cold air and attendant low are now forecast to drop further south and west than originally foreseen, at least per two major computer models. If this happens, the cold low will drop directly over Western Spain on Tuesday and Wednesday. This would result in some significant rains, especially over the eastern half of Andalucía.
Since other models show the low further east and with resulting less impact over the area, uncertainty should be highlighted. However, given the very dry winter thus far, any hope for rain is worth attending to. In any event, the low should depress temperatures region-wide by about 5 degrees.
Calling on the rain gods!
By: esteban9, 2:22 PM GMT on March 02, 2012
Nothing to be alarmed (or hopeful, depending on perspective) about...there are a few weak showers around, mainly around Malaga province. These will die out this evening, leaving barely a trace in the rain bucket.
The next chance to break the unusually dry spell (dare I say incipient drought?) is next Wednesday or so, when a back-door, closed low sinks in from the northeast. This has been our pattern this winter, and such lows are not major precipitation producers. But hope springs eternal. This weatherman is hoping for a break in his ennui, at the very least.