The forecasts from prior blogs look accurate. We will begin to experience troughs or fronts rotating through the region, like spokes on a wheel, from tomorrow afternoon through Sunday morning. Each of these disturbances will bring bands of moderate rain; it does not appear that heavy rain, if it occurs, will be widespread, except possibly in mountainous areas. In between the disturbances, rain will cease, and we could even see partly cloudy skies. Thunderstorms do not appear likely until possibly the weekend, when they will be isolated at best.
Rainfall will be heavy, however, when viewed as accumulations over the entire, prolonged 3-4 day period. The numerical models are forecasting maximum amounts from 130-155 mm in the Alcornocales mountains, north of Algeciras, by Sunday morning. Since it is early in the rainy season and soils are still relatively dry, the flood threat appears minimal.
The main story, besides the duration of this storm, may be the wind. An upper-level jet stream, in excess of 130 knots, is taking direct aim on the region. This wind will translate into strong surface winds, initially southwesterly, then westerly toward the weekend. People in the mountains and coasts should be aware of this threat, as winds could approach hurricane strength (around 100 km per hour) in some areas.
