Musings and forecasts of Andalusian weather and climate, from a veteran meteorologist.
By: esteban9, 7:31 AM GMT on November 19, 2011
A band of rain, accompanying a weak cold front, is impacting the far west of Andalucía as we speak. While this rain is not generally heavy, there are a few embedded thunderstorms that could drop locally heavy amounts over a short time.
The real story may be that the cold front is detaching to form a new cyclone that will sit over the southland for a spell. This cyclone, like its progenitor, will be relatively weak, as will the rains. However, because of its relative stationarity over the region, the rain will persist (off and on) through the day today and into tomorrow morning. Heaviest accumulations appear likely over the Strait and Costa del Sol.
All in all, a dreary day for the sun lovers on the south coast.
By: esteban9, 7:25 AM GMT on November 14, 2011
A strong line of thunderstorms, oriented north-south, is pounding Huelva province at press time. This line will continue its move east this morning, entering Sevilla and Cadiz provinces. The models show this feature weakening rapidly with the low pressure area that spawned it during the afternoon, however. So, for the remaining provinces of Andalucía today, rain will be spotty at best.
The models indicate that high pressure and fair weather will build into the area tonight for an extended stay, possibly a week or more.
By: esteban9, 7:57 AM GMT on November 02, 2011
The timing of the initial front of the storm is the same, with an accompanying rainband entering the west this afternoon.
The latest models show the upper level jet stream maintaining its strength for a longer period, through its arrival time on the peninsula. This likely means e even stronger winds than anticipated yesterday. I believe that AEMET should upgrade its yellow alerts for wind (70 km/hour) to at least orange (90 or more). In any event, I advise moving or anchoring any items that can blow away and/or cause damage.
By: esteban9, 7:47 AM GMT on November 01, 2011
The forecasts from prior blogs look accurate. We will begin to experience troughs or fronts rotating through the region, like spokes on a wheel, from tomorrow afternoon through Sunday morning. Each of these disturbances will bring bands of moderate rain; it does not appear that heavy rain, if it occurs, will be widespread, except possibly in mountainous areas. In between the disturbances, rain will cease, and we could even see partly cloudy skies. Thunderstorms do not appear likely until possibly the weekend, when they will be isolated at best.
Rainfall will be heavy, however, when viewed as accumulations over the entire, prolonged 3-4 day period. The numerical models are forecasting maximum amounts from 130-155 mm in the Alcornocales mountains, north of Algeciras, by Sunday morning. Since it is early in the rainy season and soils are still relatively dry, the flood threat appears minimal.
The main story, besides the duration of this storm, may be the wind. An upper-level jet stream, in excess of 130 knots, is taking direct aim on the region. This wind will translate into strong surface winds, initially southwesterly, then westerly toward the weekend. People in the mountains and coasts should be aware of this threat, as winds could approach hurricane strength (around 100 km per hour) in some areas.