Musings and forecasts of Andalusian weather and climate, from a veteran meteorologist.
By: esteban9, 1:00 PM GMT on October 31, 2011
A massive cyclone, extending from Morocco to Greenland, will strike the western fringe of Europe on Wednesday. Look for the initial rain in our area to commence in the afternoon.
The amount of rain is uncertain, given the lack of geographic focus for the storm now shown by computer models. However, the sheer size of the storm guarantees that it will have long-lasting effects (through at least Sunday). Chilly, cloudy, wet and windy will be the most pronounced of these effects.
As we see the "whites of the eyes" of this storm, we'll be able to better predict how much precipitation Spain will receive. Stay tuned.
By: esteban9, 2:33 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
The major rainband is already approaching the Portugal/Andalucía border, which is several hours ahead of my estimate from yesterday. The band should cover most of the western half of the region by midnight tonight, giving this area a good drenching.
The good news for fair weather lovers is that most of the rain will have either weakened or passed to the east of Andalucía by mid morning. Showers, breezy winds, and cool temperatures will remain in the wake of this system, however.
By: esteban9, 8:46 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
The cyclone on Thursday will be centered to the north of Spain, so perhaps the rain will develop much like yesterday's event, i.e., a band of moderate rain passing through in the morning, tapering off to showers in the afternoon. So, not the more powerful system I envisioned earlier. The main difference with this storm will be that it will usher in still cooler air...with morning minima sinking below the 10 degree mark, even at low elevations.
Following so closely on the heels of yesterday's storm, the accumulated precipitation between the two will be substantial. The reservoirs will begin to fill and the land begin to green. So, good news for those that dislike drought!
After Thursday, however, it looks like a return to dry, fair weather, through at least Monday.
By: esteban9, 7:22 AM GMT on October 23, 2011
It appears that the rain tomorrow is on target. It looks like the rain with the front will be heavier in western Andalucía and taper off in the east, a common occurrence with cold fronts.
Perhaps the bigger story regards the question posed Friday, whether this rain will represent and end to the "Veranillo de Membrillo," or just a pause. It now looks certain that the latter is the case. That is because another rainstorm is coming Thursday. Since that rain will be brought by a cyclone over Spain and not just a trailing cold front (like tomorrow's), Thursday's rain could be heavier and longer-lasting than Monday's.
So, stay tuned, sports (or weather) fans!
By: esteban9, 7:14 AM GMT on October 21, 2011
It appears that the "Veranillo de Membrillo" will either be interrupted or halted on Monday, as a cold front enters from the west. Rain appears certain, how much is uncertain at present. But I think it will be widespread, at least in the western half of the region. Get those umbrellas out of the closet...