Musings and forecasts of Andalusian weather and climate, from a veteran meteorologist.
By: esteban9, 6:54 AM GMT on April 29, 2011
After inspection of the hydro-meteorology, it seems that there will be considerable precipitation over the next 72 hours, but not of sufficient magnitude to cause significant flooding.
The midnight Gibraltar sounding shows deep instability but not a huge amount of moisture. So expect to see thunderstorms, mostly embedded in a widespread cloud mass, today. These thunderstorms should be particularly vigorous this afternoon. These storms could drop localized heavy amounts of rain. The area with the highest threat appears to be the high terrain of the Alcornocales (Cadiz/Malaga province border) and the Sierra Norte (north of Huelva/Seville/Cordoba), Algeciras and Gibraltar.
Tomorrow should be drier, but with some showers, especially in the afternoon. Perhaps the biggest dose of rain will come with an organized low pressure system arriving from the southwest early Monday morning. We shall see if this storm brings a significant rise in the rivers and reservoirs.
The good news for Seville Fair attendees is that most of the rain should be gone by the "alumbrao" on Monday. Stay tuned for changes, however, as the Feria is known for its wet weather!
By: esteban9, 6:06 AM GMT on April 29, 2011
A sample of this weekend's wet weather is already being tasted along the south coast; details forthcoming in a later post.
By: esteban9, 11:53 AM GMT on April 26, 2011
There have been several recent flash floods in Spain - Cáceres, 16 September 2010; Algeciras, 6 March 2011; and Córdoba province, 16 August 2010. The latter event caused three fatalities and is particularly interesting in that it presents severe challenges to forecast and warn for. WET International has done an in-depth meteorological analysis of this case, which can serve as training for forecasters in the development of readiness/vigilance and recognition of the danger signs of flash flood events. It is hoped that such training can lead to the saving of more lives and properties in the inevitable event of future flash floods in Spain and elsewhere.
While this report requires some familiarity with meteorology and its tools, those without such familiarity may skip to the conclusions section for valuable lessons learned and suggestions for the improvement of the current severe weather warning system.
The report is downloadable as a PDF file here. Enjoy and, as always, feel free to make comments via this blog.