I'm 18 years old in a family of five children living on Cape Cod, MA my whole life. I'm planning on going to college in the near future.
By: dean2007, 4:01 AM GMT on January 29, 2008
This week should be interesting, especially with the regular cha cha cha movement of the models we so dearly follow as accurately as possible. Model currently with the upper hand, would be the NAM, especially in regards to storms within 84 hours as the NAM does so well, as well as its specialty. Of long term consequence the only people that should be worried about any long term nusiance with the weather, are those writing novels as well as myself, who is trying to do the same, but has figured out that it is not an overnight project and the weather will always be unpredictable. We will never be able to fully understand every small and large scale patterns that would yield storms, or the reasons why storms were expected and did not come to fruition, we can only trust the models and our own forecasts to what we have experienced in our past and that is all its good for. We bring the lessons we have learned from previous Big Daddy snowstorms or Category five hurricanes that strike the same areas over and over again. This current stormy pattern is in place but will not favor snow for awhile due to the presence of the strong western trough which is in place and favors a storm track that barges into the Great Lakes region dumping huge amounts of snow in a widespread area, with short term concerns showing a warmup tonight into Wednesday we should worry about quick melting and fog that should plague our region until the next front approaches from the MidWest and Great Lakes region. As the storm moves into Ontario, Canada, we will focus our forecasts to a slight Arctic air mass that lasts for a day or two with temps in the 30s and lower 40s, before another inside running storm takes a track well to our west. For those wishing this warm and rainy spell to end hope is in the 20 to 25 day window, signs of the pattern changing are relevant and are showing us a sign of hope into the long term understanding of the great unknowns of our great atmosphere that supplies us with everything we need and can live without. there are signs that the western trough will shift eastward and uncompass an area that should favor a cold and dry regime in the Great Lakes with plenty of Lake Effect Snows as only common sense would reveal with such true cold airmasses, but however full national attentions shifts to the East Coast where at least two great opportunities for the Big Daddy East Coast Snowstorm present themselves. It so it seems that after the 10th of February this pattern of southward shifting storm track will present snow lovers with the love for snow that has been not as vocal as one would want, but to say the least, i got a good dumping of 10" but I will not settle for that until the next one comes and looking ahead to hurricane season, one on the East Coast can only help that the La Nina weakening to support an East Coast Snowstorm with widespread 12" or more, would also lessen the possibilities that if they present themselves of an East Coast Hurricane which La Ninas have been known to produce, so is this the tale of two seasons, which one is best for everyone and its the snowy winter and less of a hurricane threat to the East Coast. A lot will present itself during the next twenty to thirty days and keys to a possibly long and tough hurricane season, but a threatless east coast hurricane is possible. Good Night and have a wonderful night sleep and great day tomorrow, I will keep an eye to the skies.
By: dean2007, 9:01 PM GMT on January 28, 2008
Storm map accumulations for Sunday, January 27th 2008 to Monday morning, January 28th 2008
The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 24
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region.
Part one of this event over southern New Hampshire and northeast
Massachusetts was mainly a 5 am to 3 PM Sunday occurrence.
The reports over southeast Massachusetts... Cape Cod and the islands
were from accumulations that occurred between noon Sunday and 6 am
this Monday morning... generated by the near blizzard storm center
that passed about 150 miles southeast of Nantucket Sunday evening.
Appreciation is extended to Highway departments... cooperative
observers... Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This
summary is also available on our home Page at weather.Gov/Boston
********************storm total snowfall********************
Location storm total time/date comments
... Barnstable County...
East Sandwich 12.0 1200 am 1/28
Provincetown 12.0 1022 am 1/28 public works
West Barnstable 11.5 829 am 1/28 spotter
Brewster 11.3 511 am 1/28
East Falmouth 11.0 642 am 1/28 spotter
Eastham 11.0 600 am 1/28
Sagamore 11.0 1006 PM 1/27
Waquoit Village 10.0 607 am 1/28
Bourne 9.5 1007 PM 1/27
Chatham 9.5 529 am 1/28
West Dennis 9.5 450 am 1/28
Centerville 9.0 603 am 1/28
Mashpee 9.0 612 am 1/28
... Bristol County...
New Bedford 9.0 509 am 1/28
Fairhaven 7.5 609 am 1/28 Pope Beach
Acushnet 6.5 608 am 1/28
Acushnet 6.5 639 am 1/28 spotter
Somerset 4.5 1125 PM 1/27
... Dukes County...
Chilmark 8.0 919 PM 1/27
Vineyard Haven 8.0 600 am 1/28
West Tisbury 6.0 605 am 1/28
Edgartown 5.5 920 PM 1/27
... Essex County...
Ipswich 2.1 1100 am 1/27
... Middlesex County...
Chelmsford 3.0 1150 am 1/27
Pepperell 2.8 722 PM 1/27
Natick 2.0 659 am 1/28 coop
... Nantucket County...
Nantucket 5.5 703 PM 1/27
... Norfolk County...
Milton 3.0 927 PM 1/27
... Plymouth County...
Plymouth 14.0 525 am 1/28 South Plymouth
Manomet 11.0 1235 am 1/28
Rochester 9.5 731 am 1/28 ham radio
Middleboro 6.8 628 am 1/28
Rochester 6.5 842 PM 1/27
Wareham 6.5 943 PM 1/27 NWS employee
Kingston 6.0 1033 PM 1/27
Hingham 2.2 906 PM 1/27
Bridgewater 2.0 706 am 1/28 coop
... Worcester County...
Ashburnham 2.0 1225 PM 1/27
... Hillsborough County...
Nashua 2.3 940 PM 1/27
Goffstown 2.1 156 PM 1/27
Antrim 2.0 528 am 1/28
Francestown 2.0 659 am 1/28 coop
Wilton 2.0 1135 PM 1/27
... Newport County...
Middletown 2.0 614 am 1/28
Storm official Accumulation for Harwich, MA: 10"
Updated: 9:12 PM GMT on January 28, 2008
By: dean2007, 12:46 PM GMT on January 28, 2008
My street looking down to the left
My walk way looking out at the street
The driveway and two vehicles along with my house
9" of snow and a few more inches to come.
Visible Satellite imagery
What an amazing storm, look at the cloud envelop, its such a classic nor'easter, except it was further off shore then regular and annual nor'easters, but hey Cape Cod, MA got smacked and so did New Bedford, MA (15.5") of snow. That's incredible. There was an extremely heavy snow band that parked over SE Plymouth County and SE Bristol County, MA including New Bedford that just stayed there for at least a few hours. We have probably a foot of wind driven snow now and its just an incredible scene. On and off again snow showers are currently present with a heavy squall to our northeast that looks like its coming our way. Right now moisture is streaming in from the east and northeast currently while the back edge of clouds is still just east of Boston, MA and does not seem to be going anywhere quickly. We may have another three to five hours of intermittent snow showers with some brief heavy snow showers imbedded as the low slowly pushes east and northeast. I will have a full update when the storm is over.
Updated: 3:30 PM GMT on January 28, 2008
By: dean2007, 7:37 PM GMT on January 27, 2008
2" of snow so far as of 330pm EDT Sunday
HPC Surface Analysis
New England Radar
WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY, BARNSTABLE AND NANTUCKET AND DUKES COUNTIES MASSACHUSETTS.
CURRENT SNOW AMOUNTS:
HARWICH, MA: 8.0"
Picture of my front yard looking at the street, as of 1025pmEDT Sunday night
1040pm EDT WINTER STORM WARNING UPDATE:
... Barnstable County...
Wellfleet 13.5 622 am 1/28
East Sandwich 12.0 1200 am 1/28
Brewster 11.3 511 am 1/28
Eastham 11.0 600 am 1/28
Sagamore 11.0 1006 PM 1/27
Sandwich 11.0 1104 PM 1/27
Waquoit Village 10.0 607 am 1/28
Bourne 9.5 1007 PM 1/27
Chatham 9.5 529 am 1/28
West Dennis 9.5 450 am 1/28
Centerville 9.0 603 am 1/28
Mashpee 9.0 612 am 1/28
Barnstable 8.5 1104 PM 1/27
Osterville 8.0 1009 PM 1/27
West Barnstable 7.3 1120 PM 1/27
Yarmouth 7.0 1001 PM 1/27
Dennis 6.1 936 PM 1/27
East Falmouth 5.7 814 PM 1/27
Hyannis 5.0 614 am 1/28
South Yarmouth 5.0 611 PM 1/27 spotter
Updated: 12:00 PM GMT on January 28, 2008
By: dean2007, 6:36 PM GMT on January 25, 2008
Ocean Storm may affect southern New England Sunday into Tuesday with main effects at this time expected to be high winds and rough surf, with clouds. At this point it is too early to say that the storm should come further westward, but at this time I have decided to stay with a further east track simply because the models have trended eastward in their last three to four storms. So at this point a possible wind advisory may be needed. before the ocean storm develops however there is the potential for 1-3" of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning in the form of warm advection snows. For now if the storm heads further west this is my preliminary snowfall map if this does happen:
NWS Discussion(Long Term):
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --**MAJOR STORM POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL SNE**
THIS LONG TERM DRAFT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 445 PM...POSSIBLY SOONER
FOR HAYDENS SEGMENT TUE NIGHT-FRI.
AS ELEANOR DETAILED ON THE MID SHIFT...MODEL DISCREPANCY ON HUGE
OCEAN STORM HOWEVER...JUST TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WINTER BIAS OF THE
GFS...TOO FAR SOUTH... SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE GGEM SOLN LOOKS A LOT
MORE LIKELY THAN A GLANCING BLOW. I COULD EVEN SEE THIS SYSTEM COMING
TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF BOSTON...DESPITE THE CURRENT 12Z GFS ENS MEAN
WHICH IS DRIFTING THE SYSTEM EAST INSTEAD OF NNE. THE GFS ENS MEAN IS
NORTH OF THE OP RUN.
BELOW...NO LOCK BUT WE ARE GOING TO ADDRESS THE GREATER POTENCY IN
OUR NEAR FUTURE ISSUANCES LATE TODAY.
BIG INFLOW... 60 HOURS OF SEAS ABOVE 10 FT AND WE SAW THE GFS DISTANT
SOLN STILL OFFER 24 HR AVG WIND AT ACK OF 38 MPH! PVC 32 MPH.
HWO AT 4PM THIS AFTN WILL PROBABLY ISSUE AN OUTLOOK STMT FOR THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS FOR STARTERS. 09Z SREF HAS A 5 PCT PROB OF A FOOT OF SNOW
ON CAPE COD IN A 12 HR PERIOD AND A 60 PCT PROB OF SUSTAINED 34 KT WINDS
THERE BEGINNING AT 09Z MON! COMPARING...THIS MORNINGS GALE /GUSTS/
SEEN AT 44018 HAD ONLY A 15 PCT PROB OF SUSTAINED 34 KT.
TIDES ARE NORMAL... BUT WE ARE CONCERNED FOR MULTI TIDE CYCLE EROSION
PBLM AND MINOR CF /SPLASHOVER/.
LATER MODEL GUIDANCE/CONVERGENCE TO A SOLN MAY NOT COME UNTIL SUNDAY
BUT AT THIS TIME...
WE ARE THINKING LARGER.
12Z UKMET IS TRENDING CLOSER AS WELL. POPS WILL GO TO LIKELY ON THE
COAST SOMETIME SUN OR SUN NIGHT AND MON BOS-EWB EWD.
SO WE START AS OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH SOME
SYSTEM LIGHT SNOW BUT SUSPECT GRAVITATE TO A WAA COLD AIR ERODING SNOW
TO RAIN/DRIZZLE...PRESUMING THE 12Z/25 CLOSER TREND IS CORRECT.
MWS WILL BE CONTD AND PROBABLY EXPANDED/ENHANCED.
HWO WILL BE BUILT FOR CRS-NWR OUTLOOK STATEMENT.
HAYDEN IS PICKING UP THE GRIDS FROM 01Z WED-FRI WHICH INCLUDES ANY
OF THE OCCLUSION REMAINS FROM TUE AND THEN THE CFP WED.
THU/FRI...MORE LATER.-- End Changed Discussion --
HPC percentages for over 4" of snow on Monday
Update will be for Sunday after 4pm, hopefully by then we are talking over 12" of snow for Cape Cod, MA. This is probably the biggest snow potential Cape Cod, MA has seen since 2005.
Updated: 9:15 PM GMT on January 25, 2008
By: dean2007, 8:56 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
5pm EDT Thursday update:
Snows are coming up from the south. The current forecast looks good but low end accumulations on my snow map inside my snowfall ranges. This needs to be looked at closely as pattern develops overnight. If indeed trajectory stays northerly longer then forecasted then 6" could be possible, but for now will keep it at that. After this event diminshes tomorrow afternoon, will spend more time on the evolution of the weekend event, which is looking quite ominous to say the least. All energy now goes to the evolution of this event, with low moving off to our south is pivoting precip back into our area for a few hours before or after midnight.
Today: Scattered snow showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. North wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Blustery, with a north wind 8 to 11 mph increasing to between 21 and 24 mph. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 28. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 17 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 23. West wind between 14 and 16 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. North wind between 8 and 13 mph.
Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 37.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Tuesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
NWS Forecast Discussion:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONFINE GREATEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROF TO THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND
MA...WITH ITS NORTHERN SHIELD TO PVD- TAN. THEREFORE...AN INCH OR SO
IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST-CAPE AND ISLANDS. FARTHER
NORTH...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO PVD-TAN. GFS WAS PREFERRED HERE.
ELSEWHERE...A BRIEF FLURRY OR SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.
LATER THIS EVENING SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWS WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST MA AND
MOVE SEAWARD. AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OVER GEORGES BANK...COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE REGION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE OUTER CAPE /HYA EASTWARD/. MODEL
INSTABILITY AND WIND TRAJ OF 330-350 FOR A TIME FROM 3 AM TO ABOUT 8
AM. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SPOTS RECEIVING 3 TO PERHAPS 4 INCHES.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY BUT COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FRI. BLENDED GFS MOS WITH THE
COLDER NAM 2 METER TEMPS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER CAPE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY NOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...COULD SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SPILL
OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS INTO I-91 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS WITH
ACTUALLY AIR TEMPS IN THE 20S. WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...A BLUSTERY
MORNING EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
Final Snow map:
Updated: 10:14 PM GMT on January 24, 2008
By: dean2007, 12:58 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
Todays weather update:
Models have gone further south and east with the storm solution on Thursday but continue the chance for ocean effect snows on Cape Cod, MA, for Hyannis, MA eastward. There are still a lot of questions that need to be answered. Is there going to be a northerly wind direction enough to enhance snow on the Outer Cape? I don't know, but models show moisture enhancement on the coastline for Thursday night into Friday morning.
The 0z EURO shows a blocking pattern in place for early next week and shows a low just sitting off the coast of New England from Monday to Wednesday with the storm on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing rain and on Monday its snow. So this is very interesting as it shows a big warm up with the storm sitting off the coast.
Updated: 1:02 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
By: dean2007, 8:47 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
Current weather map courtesy of the Weather Channel
Map for the Thursday storm possibilities
Water Vapor Imagery
18z NAM model for 60 hour
12z NAM model for 66 hour
NWS discussions: out later
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL ACCORD LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE NET EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS THE SAME. LOW PRESSURE STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...NEAR 37N. THIS LOW WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM JET...BUT WITH MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE
REMAINING OFFSHORE OF US. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF
WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THURSDAY CARRYING ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...MOST OF THE GOOD STUFF WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY THE SOUTHERN
LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS...WE WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THERE THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE REMAINDER OF SNE.
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...THIS WILL CHANNEL A STIFF NORTHERLY WIND
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND DRAW DOWN ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH AND WIND STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION IS
NORTH THAT COULD BRING SCATTERED SNOW BANDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
CAPE COD. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY WHICH WOULD
SHIFT THE SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE...AT BEST GRAZING PROVINCETOWN AND
TRURO...AND AS WINDS DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EVEN THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD
BRING DRY AND COLD WEATHER WITH SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
DURING SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH.
LESS CERTAIN ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
CANADA IS FORECAST TO SWING A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE
COAST. PRECIP MAY EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT FROM CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND...AND IT MAY EXTEND NORTH FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME ANY AMOUNTS...SHOULD THEY EVEN OCCUR...LOOK
LIGHT. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TWO CAMPS REGARDING MONDAY...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE HOLDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER US WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS LOW PRESSURE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF US. WE WILL HOLD CHANCE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT GO COLDER WITH PRECIP MAINLY FALLING AS SNOW. IF THE
WEEKEND FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN...THIS EARLY WEEK FORECAST HAS ALMOST
NO CERTAINTY.-- End Changed Discussion --
HPC Graphics: out later
Discussion: out later
Updated: 9:45 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
By: dean2007, 5:24 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
Ocean Effect Snow synopsis
130pm EDT update Tuesday January 22nd 2008:
Ocean Effect Snow event has decreasing confidence as the winds appear to be further northwest then northerly which does not favor a moist fetch over the Bay. At this point I would say low chance maybe 10% for areas east of Hyannis, MA. Rain appears to come tonight, or later this afternoon and then gone by midnight. Wednesday appears to be cool with highs in the mid 30s at this time. Thursday features a cold front passing by and a coastal low developing too far south and east to affect our region with snow. At this point the coldest day of the year looks to be on Friday as main trough axis moves through our region. Saturday temps look to climb back into the mid to upper 30's and with cloudy skies as warmer air tries to extend into our region. Sunday looks like highs in the low 40s and moisture appears to arrive Sunday night into Tuesday with showers and highs in the low to mid 40s on the coastal plain with rain showers continuing into Tuesday before drier air works its way into SOuthern New England as a low pressure center moves to our south and east.
Updated: 6:33 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
By: dean2007, 7:25 PM GMT on January 21, 2008
NAM 84 hour forecast
GFS 84 hour forecast
NWS forecast from Wednesday to Thursday night:
Wednesday: A slight chance of snow showers before 9am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 37. West wind between 16 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
DRY FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT THE MODELS ARE IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW NORTHERLY THE LOW LEVEL FETCH WILL TURN.
HPC Graphic for day 4 weather highlights. Note the low pressure system that moves through on Thursday develops to our southeast and even though the storm is too far away for its main precip to hit us like the storm on Sunday morning was, its circulation will cause a good amount wind to circulate from the north and northeast for some good snow showers and possibly some significant snows on Wednesday and Thursday. I will update after the 18z runs and see if they still have the snows.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE GFS...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE SHORT WAVE WILL HELP PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ASCENT
GENERATED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER SOME
4pm update: NWS discussion
DRY AND CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE SHOT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT NOT CONVINCED THE FLOW WILL
COME ENOUGH FROM THE NORTH TO BE A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
HPC/NWS 4"+ graphic for Thursday into Friday or day 3.
Ocean Effect Snow percentages for Thursday night into Friday.
Tuesday night's snow map.
11pm EDT update Monday:
Confidence in a good ocean effect snow event is increasing and the northerly wind trajectory looks on target. The NAM keeps it going for at least 12 hours. The 00z NAM keeps the wind going from either the north or northeast from hour 72 to 84. Good overall envirnoment as the Arctic air pours in after the coastal storm develops off the Carolina coast, but development looks too far off shore for any direct influences other then winds, which look to favor a good overall snow event for the Outer Cape Cod are, including Hyannis, MA eastward. It appears the area from Hyannis, MA to Chatham, MA looks to be favored this time, which is further west then the Jan. 3rd event where the elbow of the Cape Cod arm received around 5" of snow. This is still in question but there is no doubt my confidence is increasing, more on this and the Tuesday night storm possibility which looks like either an all rain event or an all snow event. The GFS appears to be the warmest one out of the models, so stay tuned. Tomorrow morning should be the next update.
Updated: 4:14 AM GMT on January 22, 2008
By: dean2007, 4:23 AM GMT on January 21, 2008
PATRIOTS WON TODAY AND WILL FACE THE GIANTS FROM NEW YORK ON FEBRUARY 3RD 2008 AT 6PM. T.O. GET YOUR POPCORN READY!
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. NOW THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A PRETTY GOOD EVENT, BUT WE ALL KNOW HOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN. TOO FAR AWAY TO TAKE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION MAPS, PLUS THERE IS SUPPOSED TO BE A SOMEWHAT INTERESTING PRECIP SETUP FOR TUESDAY WHICH WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR ANY SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD FOCUS MAIN HEAVY PRECIP AREA OVER SOUTHEASTERN MA ON TUESDAY NIGHT, SO THIS IS SOMETHING OF PRETTY SIGNIFICANT PROPORTIONS.
CONGRATULATIONS TO THE CHARGERS ON A GREAT HARD FOUGHT GAME AND CONGRATULATIONS TO THE NEW YORK GIANTS AND GREEN BAY PACKERS FOR ONE HELL OF A GAME.
HERE'S TO PERFECTION AND A SUPERBOWL CHANCE!
By: dean2007, 5:34 PM GMT on January 19, 2008
Water Vapor imagery, with the Arctic Front and low pressure depicted in the image. This is the current observations today as of 1230pm edt.
By: dean2007, 9:07 PM GMT on January 18, 2008
4"+ map from the HPC:
By: dean2007, 1:13 PM GMT on January 17, 2008
6z NAM: 72 hour window. This looks good for coastal areas as any closer the storm will cause rain on the coast. This is what I don't want happening. I just want my snowstorm.
POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR NEXT OF
THE WOODS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO RAPIDLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SATURDAY
EVENING. THE NAM IS FARTHEST NORTHEAST OF THE SUITE.
WENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO
GRAZE THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME A LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO OCCUR
OVER SOUTHEAST MASS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM FOR
HIGHER OR LOWER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND HOW IT INFLUENCES THE
MAIN TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. A BIT MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT TO
THE APPROACHING TROF WILL BRING THE LOW FURTHER WEST. ON THE OTHER
HAND...A BIT MORE OF A POSITIVE TILT AND THE LOW MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW SHOULD
BE OVERWITH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
Day 3: HPC 4"+ Graph
12z model update:
12z model runs show the storm and a healthy one at that. The GFS remains on the conservative side, although I did not see the 12z GFS yet it hasn't come out yet. But based on the NAM a goo .75 to 1.00" of QPF is forecasted but I am not buying into the coastal storm until 00z Friday night. By then the storm should be organized over the southeast. I don't buy the NAM until the European and GFS models have the storm like the NAM. Also the NAM has snow in the south which is why I am not buying into it now. Update in another half hour when the GFS comes out.
radar for the Northeast.
12Z GFS 66 hour window:
12z NAM 66 hour window:
Updated: 5:00 PM GMT on January 17, 2008
By: dean2007, 8:19 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
12z NAM today
315pm EDT - 1/16/08:
Today's 12z NAM shows a coastal storm in a perfect position to give us snow for the coastal regions, where snow would be the main form of precipitation, however it is possible that the storm is warmer and therefore we see a rain/snow mix, which would not bode well for me at least. However NWS shows rain/snow for Saturday with a high of 39F and snow for Saturday Night. So we should know more by Friday as the models, esp the high resolution ones will have a better read on it. So before then its all a guess and a cha cha cha of the models, esp the GFS, which shows an offshore solution. I just want to see an all snow storm for once instead of these westward trending storms that bring more rain instead of snow. No more westward trending storms that trend so far west that I receive nothing but rain, I had enough. Well the NAM shows a good storm at the 84hr window, so we should wait until the 18z runs on Friday, but I will check the one today as well. Update then.
HPC track and intensity map.
Updated: 9:12 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
By: dean2007, 4:00 PM GMT on January 15, 2008
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. 340 DEGREE SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -12C. THIS
MAY RESULT IN OCEAN INDUCED CAPES OF 350 J/KG. THIS IS CERTAINLY
NOT THE EXTREME SETUP FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOW THAT WE HAD ON JANUARY
3RD WHEN WE HAD WELL OVER 500 J/KG OF OCEAN INDUCED CAPE.
NONETHELESS...WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
400pm update Tuesday:
Ocean Effect Snow not expected! Air is too dry for anything to develop. Thats it for now!
Updated: 8:54 PM GMT on January 15, 2008
By: dean2007, 5:20 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
12z NAM 84 hour period:
12z GFS 84 hour period:
The snowfall forecast for today's storm was bust as the storm did not have a true Arctic High, and the storm came in too weak and is now just starting to deepen rapidly as it reaches into the Gulf of Maine today. The next notable storm on the models is for Thursday night into Friday. As of right now the GFS has a notable weaker storm and a somewhat faster solution than the 12z NAM does. The GFS has a 1012mb low over Florida while at the same time the 12z NAM has a 1008mb low over the Gulf still. The NAM has a somewhat colder solution to its storm track, but regardless the Arctic air will be too late to enter into the system for a major I95 corridor snowstorm. Many snowstorms of epic proportions have taken a similar but further east track with a stationary and strong area of Arctic High Pressure. With this in mind the models have nothing of the sort, so I would look for a good snowfall north and west of the big cities. likely in the mountains for over a foot of snow. We would likely get a mix to start over to a hard quick period of heavy rain and then the dry slot enters our region, with a mix all the way to the MA/NY border. After this storm a big Arctic outbreak appears reasonalbe around Sunday, just in time for the AFC championship game between the Pats and the Bolts. Forecast at this time for Sunday is highs in the low 20s with clear skies, so at least no real weather problems would be likely except for cold temperatures. As for the Long Range forecast the GFS cannot be relied on as it shows too much inconsistency with regards to systems flying through the jet stream and as well its connections with any real Arctic airmasses seem distant at this time. The GFS has a flip flopping temperature regime the last week of January and then it flips back to a very cold regime for the last day of January. That is all for now.
By: dean2007, 9:28 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
For now on any updates will be given in this blog and no new blogs until Thursday. Blog devoted to the 14th storm.
Forecasts will be updates and no new entirely different blogs.
Now on to the maps:
940pm update Sunday:
The storm is currently developing 3mb stronger then what the NAM initialized at 7pm today. It is currently east of Norfolk, VA and precipitation is overspreading the southern half of the Northeast including the Mid Atlantic states where not a lot of accumulation is expected. It appears the storm may travel further east a little then what was expected earlier today. However the main concern for changing my snowfall map is based in the area of Cape Cod, MA and Plymouth, MA as well. It appears here that a little more snow will fall depending on how the rain changes to snow, quickly or slowly. This is the trouble spot right now as for New York City as well as the storm's main moisture will be moving away before it changes to all snow, esp. south of the city. Temps are, are around 38 - 40F on the Coast, so this will probably be a mainly rain storm again. Again the coast gets jipped. The GFS develops a Miller Type A snowstorm for the 72 to 108 hour window. The NAM however is stronger and slower with the low as it moves out of the Gulf OF Mexico. There is a lot of questions to be answered, but this looks like a rain event for the coast and snow event further west of the I95 corridor, mainly a major snow event for the Mountains. But this is still a good five days away, likely to impact our region with heavy rain and strong winds for the Friday into Saturday timeframe, with very cold temps for the following week.
PATRIOTS WON AND WILL FACE THE CHARGERS NEXT SUNDAY AT 3PM AT FOXBORO, MA.
1130am update Sunday: 12z runs have stayed consistent esp the GFS 12z, but what is not encouraging to say the least is that the NAM has trended weaker and further east. While the track further east, I think a stronger storm looks likely then what the NAM is currently saying. The storm is currently developing over the southeast and this will be an amazing storm to watch. A High Wind Watch was posted, but I have a feeling the NWS here in Taunton, MA will post a Winter Weather Advisory or Snow Advisory, because the rain will start off and then change to snow and heavy snow at that.
930am update Sunday: I just issued the snow map after the 6z GFS came out, or when I was able to look at it. The 6z NAM takes too far to the east and has a somewhat weaker storm before it passes Cape Cod, MA. The 6z GFS stayed fairly consistent since Friday afternoon so the snow map is based on the GFS. I believe 3-6" will occur on Cape Cod, even after the changeover occurs, because the GFS shows a great band moving through when that happens. Also there is no dry slot for this area because the storm still moves offshore. So if we were going to get dry slotted, then I would agree with Blizzard on not seeing much snow, but as the storm nears, rapid cooling of the atmosphere happens and changes everything to snow. As for the most snow, I would expect an area including Boston, MA to see over a foot of snow and its possible that northeast NJ may get over 10" of snow. I also added NYC in the 12" area because the GFS displaces a good amount of liquid into the city area and with temps expected to be in the low 30's then I expect snow to accumulate somewhat hard when the main moisture moves in. It may melt at the start but then it will pick up again and you have your good snowfall. Update later on after the 12z runs and then I will be doing updates on current situations.
... A powerful coastal storm will bring strong winds to coastal
... High wind watch in effect from late tonight through Monday
The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a high wind
watch... which is in effect from late tonight through Monday
This watch includes Cape Cod... Marthas Vineyard... and Nantucket.
Increasing northeast winds late tonight and Monday may reach 20 to
35 mph and may gust at times to 50 mph. Such winds could damage trees
and power lines.
A high wind watch means the potential exists for strong damaging
winds to develop in the mentioned areas. These strong winds are
capable of Downing trees and power lines as well as causing
property damage. If a High Wind Warning is issued... stay inside
and away from windows.
Monitor Storm's progress through this radar:
HPC's surface analysis.
00z NAM initialization 000 hours:
Updated: 2:52 AM GMT on January 14, 2008
By: dean2007, 7:44 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
The GFS one would say has been extremely inconsistent this winter, for reasons I don't know why. I'm sure forecasters would love to have the GFS on the side of the models that show a coastal storm and the GFS would only give more confidence for that kind of forecast, but reality is it has no idea what it wants to do, coastal storm, out to sea, too cold as main trough axis develops storm too far east to affect the coast, is it a major storm, or does the weather pattern wait for the 20th storm, will the 14th storm have a lot of cold air to work with, or will it be minimal after the front moves through tomorrow, where's the front positioned is the boundary strong or weak, are the extremes minimal at best so would the strength of the storm be a result of that, would upper level energy suggest a major or minor coastal storm, will it rain on the I95 corridor, or snow, would there be substantial amounts of snow where it does snow, or would there be less than 10" of snow. These are a lot of questions that will need to be answered and the GFS is not the only model that can answer them. The 12z EURO blows up the storm along the coast, but is it all snow on coastal locations, does it become a full fledged blizzard, or is it a mediocre storm, of no real importance like the GFS has been condoning the past five days. The simple answer is no one knows and will not know until Tuesday morning, no one will have the perfect forecast, its just perfect in your eyes, one way or another. What happens in your own backyard is all that everyone cares about, and the same goes for me. Its natural to think that way, sure Henry Margusity thinks a 20th storm will come, but does that make him and myself correct or better than anyone else at forecasting, heck no, absolutely not, it just means we were fortunate to get a forecast right, but the pattern favors such a storm, even if one comes early next week, the pattern favors one for the 20th because a colder air mass then this one, will be coming down, that's the way of the weather, unpredictable and man will die trying to do what we are doing today.
By: dean2007, 12:54 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
The latest 6z GFS shows the coastal storm tracking about 50 to 100 miles off of Cape Cod, MA. Although it is this close, the GFS keeps the warmer temps off the coast. This storm is becoming more likely as the GFS will need to make up its mind whether or not it agrees with a coastal storm next Sunday night into Monday night. From the latest run 10-12" is possible, in the hardest hit areas so its not going to be a major snow producer in that it won't produce prolific snow amounts, because of duration and moisture as well as marginal cold airmass in place.
The storm for the 20th appears its getting more confidence. The 6z GFS shows a coastal storm, but does not head northeast up the coast but instead brings precip in but heads out to sea off the Mid Atlantic coast, bringing precip into the area. The NAO is going negative and I have had a feeling since mid December this will be our storm, I don't know why.
Updated: 1:04 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
By: dean2007, 5:43 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
Although earthquakes are felt almost everyday in the Caribbean there have been real monsters that have wrecked havoc on the Caribbean Islands with a few Tsunamis with the shallow and monster quakes. In order for a tsunami to occur there has to be a major displacement of water and energy that would create such a huge wave like in Indonesia in 2004. This is the most likely around or near a subduction zone or where two plates collide, as for the Mid Atlantic Ridge these plates are separating. The wave from a Caribbean Sea Earthquake would be a high impact disaster for the Islands esp. Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, as well as Florida and Africa, or whoever is closest to the main energy. A tsunami involves the whole column of water, while wind driven waves are only affected on the surface as the whole column remains easy. The US East Coast south of Virginia would be at high risk for a sizable wave to crash ashore, however places in the Northeast north of New Jersey are protected from sand bars and shallow water, from the glacier remnants left by the glacier that is now known as Cape COd, MA. A large upwelling of heated water and lava could be displaced from such a destructive and powerful earthquake of 8.0 magnitude or higher. Such water could heat to 100F or higher and would be moving towards the United States East Coast, due to the trade winds created by the Bermuda/Azores high that fluctuates in intensity and position although resumes a position near Bermuda during the Summer months. Such a catastrophe to strike during the summer another phenomenon such as the hypercane a theoritcal hurricane with winds higher then 500mph, a storm surge over 60 feet and a minimum central pressure of at least 700mb would create an endless hurricane that would have a vortex 200 miles wide or an eye 200 miles wide and an eyewall that extended to almost 20 miles into the atmosphere depositing cloud debris and water vapor blocking the sun for months, if so. This wouldn't be the end however, more hypercanes would come in a series until this heated area of water was balanced out and no one knows what would happen beyond that. Dr. Kerry Emanuel, the Scientist to discover and come up with this theory believes that such a disaster could happen, but is not all that likely. He believes that an eruption of the earth's crust in an earthquake or volcanic eruption could produce an area over 600 miles wide of heated water, so this is what my book will be based on. Any questions or thoughts would be welcomed.
By: dean2007, 9:28 PM GMT on January 08, 2008
This is a picture of all of the boundaries of the Caribbean plate. This plate is vulnerable to major earthquakes and such a major earthquake of 8.0 magnitude or higher could create a mega tsunami, esp in Florida, and the East Coast of the United States, south of New England's coast, as there there is a shallow layer of water called Nantucket Shoals, that has formed over the past few hundred years due to the glacier sediments left over that has formed Cape Cod, MA. However the worst of the tsunami would be felt in the Caribbean islands. Also a release of heat would occur if the fault continued to spilt open if there was a giant earthquake strong enough to do so, and if it did then heated water would head northward and westward trapped in the trade winds in relation to the bermuda/Azores high pressure center in the middle of the Summer, if this were to happen, then a giant or series of giant hypercanes would form and change the climate from what we know it as of today to the tundra of Antarctica. How much of a possibility is this, I think its growing, but is it a great threat, no not now, but who knows.
By: dean2007, 3:22 PM GMT on January 08, 2008
The 6z GFS run was pretty interesting showing the continuing westward trend on the GFS for the 14th storm, and I wouldn't even look at the GFS after that esp with the 20th storm.
Full update after the 12z runs.
Before I go into matchups, I just want to get this off my mind. The Jags defensive end Spicer just won't let go of the spygate incident, because he doesn't think the Pats should be allowed to go to the playoffs, which if any other team did the same thing, the same punishment would not be given as they would just be given a fine, with no losses of a draft pick, unless its the Colts. So I just want everyone around the league to sut up about this stupid incident that had no bearings on whats to happen in the next 15 games, and they were just caught with a camera in the wrong position.
The Jaguars present a tall task and great challenge to the Patriots pursuit of playoff perfection. They represent a well disciplined, physical defense and rushing offense who does not turn the ball over with the mediocre passing offense. The Patriots will show an eight man box and make Garrad win the game with his arm, which I don't think he can for 60 minutes. The Jags will try to bulldoze the aging Pats line-backing core, however they have shown over and over again this year the bend but don't break mentality which will be key in the red zone, if the Pats can keep them from getting touchdowns, if they are successful in the red zone then the Jags will not win, because they cannot come down and score field goals, because they may contain the Pats prolific offense passing game, but they won't stop Tom Brady and Randy Moss.
Now the keys for the Jags defense is the same as the Pats defense, keep them from the end zone. The Pats will exploit the Jags weaknesses, so the Jags have to weather the storm. It will be key for the Jags to knock Tom Brady around even if they are not sacks, just make Tom uncomfortable and have the ball last so the Pats cannot go down the field. Pass rush will be key for the Jaguars, and pass protection will be key for the Pats
However with all of this in play I pick the Pats 35 Jags 20.
By: dean2007, 10:13 PM GMT on January 07, 2008
This is the picture of the tectonic plates of the Atlantic Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The circles are the areas where the earthquake originates and the path of the ensuing tsunami and hypercane. First what would happen is a giant earthquake shakes the ridge from the Mid Atlantic ridge to the Caribbean fault line. There it rips apart the ocean floor and the lava is pouring into the ocean so fast that the crust cannot rejoin until its balanced again, so in doing so the cane forms over to the west of the Cape Verde Islands and begins to intensify just east of the major upwelling of the very intense heat created by the misplaced crust due to the earthquake of 9.9 magnitude. WHich is not impossible, the cane gains strength as the warmth spreads eastward into the Caribbean Sea and then north of the Greater Antilles islands. The warm water temperatures kill everything in the way in the ocean as the environment is too warm for anything to survive, then the northern extension of the warm ocean temperatures heads to the north of the Greater Antilles islands. Then after being north of the islands the wamest ocean temps surge towards the East Coast of the United States. The water surges towards and enters the Gulf Stream off the East Coast and is installed into the stream. Then we have our hypercane. It hits the Chesapeake Bay area. The rest to be determined.
By: dean2007, 5:56 PM GMT on January 07, 2008
Dr. Kerry Emanuel, a scientist who I believe is retired from MIT came up with the theory of an asteroid based hypercane, or a tropical cyclone of winds higher then 500mph and needs ocean surface temperatures higher then 113F. Its vortex 200 miles across and a storm surge over 60 feet high with a minimum central pressure of 700mb or lower and a cumulonimbus cloud higher then 20 miles into the atmosphere. However I want to write a book and can't think of a way to start it, although I have an idea, however I want to take his theory and bring it to a new and a more dangerous level, this time a hypercane created by the meshing of global tectonics, esp the Mid Atlantic Ridge. A sudden terrifying earthquake strikes the ridge between Africa and Barbados. However the rest is yet to be determined. I want to know your thoughts on this possibility.
By: dean2007, 4:43 PM GMT on January 07, 2008
12z GFS has storm, but placement continues to be a problem and will continue to be one until the storm reaches the West Coast. Snow will be a more widepread theme for the Northeast then the last few storms have been. Snow will likely be in the I95 corridor, but places to the east will continue to be the rain/snow battleground, depending on the placement of the low, the coastline will either see all rain or snow to rain. There are still a lot of questions to this overall weather pattern. I give the storm a 40% chance of occurring and a 10% chance of happening as a major full blown storm. Update after the 18z.
By: dean2007, 3:04 PM GMT on January 06, 2008
NAO ensemble forecast
These are my 6z GFS January 14th storm thoughts.
These are subject to change, not my final forecasts.
WHile the NAO is now at slightly above nuetral the ensembles are showing a trend towards negative around the 16th, but in the meantime a storm will develop over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, of next week, not this week coming up, but the following. It is still 168 hours out and they will not become accurate until the storm is over the United States, so all we have to look at is the consistency the models share and bring to the table. All signs hint at some type of storm with two paths and this will pay huge dividends as to what people get in terms of precipitation. One path the models seem to be leaning towards is the Great Lakes path, but I believe the most likely is the path up the coast, just where is the question. I put out the rain/snow area where I think it will change to rain and its on the coastline from southeast of Boston, MA to the southeast of Baltimore and Washington D.C. I will have another quick update today with a full update tomorrow. These are my thoughts today, as for the Celtics they beat the Pistons last night in a great game 92-85. I have reasons to believe that the Pats will play the Jags next Saturday, that should be a great game.
Updated: 3:19 PM GMT on January 06, 2008
By: dean2007, 5:46 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
The GFS has changed from its original mindset of three consecutive storms to one big storm with a very cold air mass following and staying in place, with a somewhat of a coastal storm giving the coast a few clouds, with no real precipitation, whoever I disregard this run in terms of the storm on the 20th, simply because the factors are there for a monster storm to develop and I think its the right timing, as for the other storm that brings the change to colder weather on the 13th, I think its possible that a stronger storm seems possible on the 13th to bring the colder air to the coast, but the GFS 12z run seems a little overdone on the cold air at this time, we will see what the next runs if they stay the same.
12z GFS for the 19th of January.
Updated: 5:55 PM GMT on January 04, 2008
By: dean2007, 10:22 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
I've heard some thoughts on this mid month storm, but for any prospects for snow look dim as this storm originates from the Gulf of Mexico. First off the NAO goes to nuetral, this is not all that favorable for a coastal storm which brings snow to the coast, however this can bring snow to inland areas which have already received a lot of snow especially north of Pennsylvania this winter so far. NAO when goes to negative has a profound affect on the speed of a storm's movement and so therefore no prolonged period of snow appears likely as there is no associated blocking near Greenland to buckle the jet stream and allow the storm off the coast to stall or slow down its forward momentum. Here is the NAO:
As for the temperatures, this storm looks to pull the same process as what has been happening over the past two months with any storm that becomes a major snow producer and that's going to the west of the mountains or going inland as to the I95 corridor goes from snow to rain and then the precip shuts off. However I believe the real storm comes around the 20th, of this month, because by then the cold air becomes entrenched into the region, although monitoring the models for further trends may lead me to beg differ, but for now a quick snow changing to all rain scenario looks like the best option right now as that's what most of the models have been leaning towards. More on this after the 18z runs.
By: dean2007, 8:40 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
... Barnstable County...
Chatham 4.0 1258 PM 1/3 police
Eastham 4.0 1255 PM 1/3 police
Orleans 4.0 1259 PM 1/3 police
Truro 2.0 100 PM 1/3 police
Wellfleet 2.0 1254 PM 1/3 spotter
Long range Update:
For the next 10 days temperatures on Cape Cod, MA should be above average and in the mid to upper 40's over the weekend. There will be some temps likely after the weekend passes over in the 50's but thats most likely after Monday. Temperatures and precipitation will be both in the mid 40's on average with some sprinkles and passing showers throughout the five day period. More intense and organized showers should arrive with a frontal passage sometime Wednesday bring in cooler rain before another rain storm on the 14th or 15th brings rain and a frontal passage where the regime changes from a warm pattern and wet to more of a cold and dry weather pattern. For the next week I will be trying to focus on a book project that I have been trying to write for the past two years and if I am able to correctly start the book I should have more updated blogs thereafter. GFS update probably around Saturday or Sunday, as I will try to work on this book when I have the best time which is now as my mother leaves for vacation and snow is on the ground so as my father a landscaper can't do much. I will catch you all when I can.
Updated: 8:42 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
By: dean2007, 3:46 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
... Ocean effect snow showers continue across Outer Cape cod...
... Snow Advisory in effect until 7 PM EST this evening...
The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Snow
Advisory... which is in effect until 7 PM EST this evening.
Ocean effect snow showers will continue across Cape Cod through
early this evening. Total accumulations of a trace to 5 inches are
possible with the highest totals expected across Outer Cape cod from
Hyannis east to Chatham and north to Provincetown.
Satellite... radar and surface observations indicate bands of light to
moderate snow showers across Outer Cape cod from Hyannis to Chatham
and Provincetown... with light snow showers and flurries approaching
the Cape Cod canal.
Snow will vary in intensity given the location of individual snow
bands. Gusty northwest winds combined with the falling snow will
temporarily reduce visibilities to one half mile or less. Snow will
begin to taper to flurries this evening as winds shift to west and
snow bands shift to the east out into the ocean waters.
A Snow Advisory means that periods of snow will cause primarily
travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and
limited visibilities... and use caution while driving.
Accumulations of up to 5 inches possible east of Hyannis, MA. Main ocean effect snow band consolidating to our north and northwest. Wind direction staying stationary as band extends from north northwest to south southeast in a favorable direction for the Outer Cape Harwich and eastward to receive the heaviest amounts of snow, as temperatures climb somewhat intensity may wane, but should strengthen over the next five hours as band starts to get its act back together, snow map I put out yesterday looks good and photos will be on later today.
Updated: 3:49 PM GMT on January 03, 2008
By: dean2007, 8:46 PM GMT on January 02, 2008
My neighbor's yard across the street.
Down the street to our east.
updated snowfall amounts.
This snow band may stay a little longer for the areas in red extending from east of Cape Ann, MA down to Hyannis, MA and points east esp Brewster, Harwich, Chatham, Eastham, Provincetown, Orleans, Welfleet, Yarmouth, and Dennis. These are the areas expecting more then 2" while place from Hyannis, MA westward to the bridge expect you snow to be over. Areas in red can expect snow showers to extend into tomorrow morning, but the day will be mainly dry and very cold with highs around 20F, even on the Cape. Light snow now will pick up in intensity as the heavier snow band to the northwest will drop down possibly giving our area more snow, this will be the last opportunity for snow until at least the earliest for January 15th and beyond as the weather pattern shifts gears.
Amounts at this time appear reasonable.
Updated: 11:09 PM GMT on January 02, 2008
By: dean2007, 3:16 PM GMT on January 02, 2008
The weather this morning.
The weather later on Today.
Highs around 32F and falling in the afternoon.
Lows around 15F at night.
Cloudy with snow showers.
I'm 18 years old in a family of five children living on Cape Cod, MA my whole life. I'm planning on going to college in the near future.
Light Snow Mist