Cyclonekid's Tropical Blog

Possible Sub-tropical Development Next Week

Posted by: cyclonekid, 4:13 PM GMT on April 12, 2012

Models are picking up on a possible cut-off extratropical low pressure system forming in the Mid-Subtropical Atlantic early next week. This would occur in an area that would be semi-favorable for development with 24ºC-26ºC sea surface temperatures and little wind shear. The CMC, European, and GFS models are all in agreement that some low pressure system will develop to the east of Bermuda, but where it will go is where it differs.

Image 1: The area where the models think it will go.

As you can see, the CMC (Canadian) model believes that the low pressure will meander long enough to be picked up by another trough which will speed it on off to the northeast where it will become subtropical. This is a possibility, but there is a stronger agreement with the European (Operational and Ensemble means) and GFS (American) model. These models believe that the system will meander for so long that the Azores-Bermuda (AB) high will be strong enough to sink this system to the south and eventually the west. This would have to be monitored carefully considering that it would be a possible threat to the East Coast if the AB high prevailed. Based on the appearance on the model runs, it appears as though the storm may become strong enough to be a strong subtropical storm or it might even reach low hurricane strength. If this were to happen, it would be the strongest storm to form in the month of April.

Climatology is against this occurring. There have only been two other notable cyclones in history to form in the month of April. One was a Subtropical storm in 1992 and the other was Tropical Storm Ana in 2003. Normally, conditions are too hostile for development anywhere in the month of April, but it is possible that conditions improve enough to allow a subtropical depression or storm to form.

Time will tell.
Cyclonekid

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Bingiza heads for Madagascar

Posted by: cyclonekid, 2:26 PM GMT on February 13, 2011

Figure 1: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest image on Bingiza.Tropical Cyclone Bingiza, Category 3 tropical cyclone, is heading straight for Madagascar. With winds estimated to be around 115mph, Bingiza could be a disaster for the country. Some strengthening is possible before its landfall as conditions are now extremely favorable for strengthening.Tropical HistoryThe tropical history of Bingiza is very interesting. Bingiza developed out of a tropical disturb...

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New blog

Posted by: cyclonekid, 2:13 PM GMT on August 18, 2010

I will try to have a new blog sometime tonight or tomorrow. I haven't been updating this like I should. So I will try to start updating this often.

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92L making a comeback; Blas churns up waters off the coast of Mexico

Posted by: cyclonekid, 12:57 AM GMT on June 18, 2010

92L making trouble yet againClick here for my graphical Tropical Weather Outlook92L last night was wiped off the face of the National Hurricane Center's. However, since it has entered the high wind shear in excess of 30-40kts, it has fired some convection over the wave axis. It's interesting how the invest was almost a tropical depression over the waters where it could develop and now its fighting the shear as its trying to make a comeback in the high shear. The Nat...

Updated: 12:59 AM GMT on June 18, 2010

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92L fizzles; 92E strengthens while 93E is born

Posted by: cyclonekid, 9:22 PM GMT on June 15, 2010

92L kept its thunderstorms together last night but have disintegrated today. 92L was a very rare ITCZ disturbance that broke off from the ITCZ and organized itself. This is VERY rare for the month of June because wind shear usually is too strong for tropical development east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this system is slim to none now because a combination of dry air and wind shear will tear this invest apart. This will be an invest that we will remember f...

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