Possible Sub-tropical Development Next Week

By: cyclonekid , 4:13 PM GMT on April 12, 2012

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Models are picking up on a possible cut-off extratropical low pressure system forming in the Mid-Subtropical Atlantic early next week. This would occur in an area that would be semi-favorable for development with 24ºC-26ºC sea surface temperatures and little wind shear. The CMC, European, and GFS models are all in agreement that some low pressure system will develop to the east of Bermuda, but where it will go is where it differs.


Image 1: The area where the models think it will go.

As you can see, the CMC (Canadian) model believes that the low pressure will meander long enough to be picked up by another trough which will speed it on off to the northeast where it will become subtropical. This is a possibility, but there is a stronger agreement with the European (Operational and Ensemble means) and GFS (American) model. These models believe that the system will meander for so long that the Azores-Bermuda (AB) high will be strong enough to sink this system to the south and eventually the west. This would have to be monitored carefully considering that it would be a possible threat to the East Coast if the AB high prevailed. Based on the appearance on the model runs, it appears as though the storm may become strong enough to be a strong subtropical storm or it might even reach low hurricane strength. If this were to happen, it would be the strongest storm to form in the month of April.

Climatology is against this occurring. There have only been two other notable cyclones in history to form in the month of April. One was a Subtropical storm in 1992 and the other was Tropical Storm Ana in 2003. Normally, conditions are too hostile for development anywhere in the month of April, but it is possible that conditions improve enough to allow a subtropical depression or storm to form.

Time will tell.
Cyclonekid

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2. cyclonekid
5:12 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting nigel20:
Thanks for the update cyclonekid


No problem! :)
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
1. nigel20
4:39 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Thanks for the update cyclonekid
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8020

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Tropical Forecaster.