92L making a comeback; Blas churns up waters off the coast of Mexico

By: cyclonekid , 12:57 AM GMT on June 18, 2010

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92L making trouble yet again
Click here for my graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
92L last night was wiped off the face of the National Hurricane Center's. However, since it has entered the high wind shear in excess of 30-40kts, it has fired some convection over the wave axis. It's interesting how the invest was almost a tropical depression over the waters where it could develop and now its fighting the shear as its trying to make a comeback in the high shear. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) at the 18Z (2pm EDT), gave it a near 0% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. However, at the 0Z (8pm EDT) outlook, they "up-ed" their chances to 20%. This is kind of remarkable considering the amount of shear and dry air that the invest is encountering at the present time. This is a fighter, so to speak. So since the NHC has upgraded their chances to 20%, i'm going to give 92L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression before Sunday Morning.

Tropical Storm Blas forms off the coast of Mexico as Tropical Depression Two-E dissipates
Click here for my graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical Depression Two-E formed off the coast of Mexico yesterday as a weak depression with winds only of 30mph. Since slow strengthening was expected of this system, tropical storm advisories were issued from Salina Cruz to Punto Maldonado. At one time, advisories extended from Salina Cruz all the way to Zihuatanejo, with a tropical storm warning from Salina Cruz to Acapulco. However, due to the proximity to Mexico, TD Two-E never became a tropical storm. It dissipated earlier on June 17th. Heavy rains fell in the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. Although, it didn't gain a name, it did cause some minimal damage across the southern portion of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Blas (Figure 1) formed today from invest 92E. The NHC has been tracking this system for almost a week. Slow development was expected of the system and eventually it did gain a broad area of low pressure thus gaining invest status. Then finally on this day it gained Tropical Depression status. Actually stronger than TD Two-E, it continued to remain nearly stationary over the same area. Blas is expected to remain over waters over the next couple of days. The tropical storm should reach a peak intensity of about 50mph. This is classified as a moderate tropical storm. Thankfully, Blas should stay well away from land.


Figure 1: Tropical Storm Blas, as of 5pm EDT June 17, 2010.

Another area of interest has formed off the coast of Guatemala. This area is still recovering from Tropical Storm Agatha from about a month ago. Any development from this system should be slow to occur. The NHC is giving this system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. I would like to see more organization of this system before I can give a percentage of this system out.

Sorry I didn't make a post yesterday. The family just out of the blue decided to go to Olive Garden so we had our family night and I didn't have a chance to get back on. My next blog entry will try to be tomorrow.

CK
Image Credit: ALL ME!! ;D

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6. zlogirl
3:59 PM GMT on June 26, 2010
Can you comment on the Darby movement??? Will it turn East?? How will the storm in the gulf affect it? It is great to have someone watching the Eastern Pacific.....
5. cyclonekid
1:09 AM GMT on June 18, 2010
Thank You all!
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
3. nyhurricaneboy
1:08 AM GMT on June 18, 2010
Very nice entry and graphic. :)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 104 Comments: 503
2. WxTracker15
1:06 AM GMT on June 18, 2010
I can't wait until tomorrow to see what happens with/to it
Member Since: May 13, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 145
1. stormwatcherCI
1:06 AM GMT on June 18, 2010
Excellent blog. Keep it up.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436

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